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gm_jeanguy

Habs fan somehow
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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GM22 mars 2023 à 13 h 45
Sujet: Not ONLY to upset my fellow Habs fans
If PLD wants the most money and the most freedom, he is only signing a 1 year deal. Your trade idea falls flat when you realize NYR would have to shed a <strong>ton</strong> of salary on their roster to make this work. So when taking salary into consideration, you not only have to find a team that has the assets WPG would want but also that have the cap to make it work long term, not to mention the need for top 6 C. The list of teams drops significantly. There are teams obviously but it definitely drops.

Habs have all the necessary pieces to make a PLD trade work. That's not the issue. The question is do they really want to spend what it costs to not risk another team signing him long term if they don't. IMHO it comes down to the draft lottery. If the Habs draft a centerman in this draft, why would they pay full price for PLD? Smith/Carlsson/Fantilli/Bedard are arguably better for the teams long term plan anyway. The only thing that keeps bringing this rumor to the forefront is the province PLD is from.

If PLD was born in Manitoba, Habs would probably not even be interested. (in the sense that the Habs are rebuilding and don't need to be paying full price to get a legitimate top 6 center right now - they're still years away)
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars 2023 à 16 h 12
Sujet: HockeyProspecting ratings
These numbers completely perplex me.

Cole Caufield has already proven, at least to me, that he's close to star quality already. He's so good that you guys shouldn't entertain any thoughts of trading him. Meanwhile, Hutson isn't even signed yet. Moreover, Caufield and Hutson are both undersized -- Caufield is two inches shorter but 15 pounds heavier, yet Hutson plays the more physically demanding position, which also requires longer to learn. (Some forwards never develop more than one side to their game, as Mike Hoffman's career attests, but the Paul Coffey days are over.) So quantifying their respective chances of "reaching star player status" as Hutson having a 50% better shot than the already-tried-and-almost-proven Caufield is just cuckoo. Let me put it another way: anyone who'd rather have the untried Dragicevic than the nicely developing Kaiden Guhle has a, shall we say, peculiar analytic taste.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 mars 2023 à 16 h 9
Sujet: HockeyProspecting ratings
As much as I love Bader's work, keep in mind that his model is limited by three main factors:

1. All that is predicted for is point production. He is only predicting how many points a player will put up. A "star" is just a player who passes a certain career scoring threshold. Slafkovsky, though I personally am not high on him, may bring things that don't show on the scoresheet. JFresh's prospect equivelency model does not have this limitation and measures stars based on WAR.
2. Top prospects often have obvious potential that is not reflected in their production. Past the second round, or even the late first, you could blindly draft based on Bader's model and be very successful. At the top of the draft, however, you should put far more stock in the eye test. Fantilli is, without question, the second best player available in the draft. Carlsson, who you mention as being relatively poorly rated by Bader, should unequivocally be among the top picks of the draft.
3. All that is measured is point production. Hutson is an excellent prospect, I will not object to that, but just like NTDP teammate Seamus Casey, there is a possibility that his game does not translate due to his size and toolset. Beating up on college hockey is definitely a green flag for any prospect, but the level of play is insanely high in the NHL. Of the 74% that profile like Hutson and turned out as stars, how many were of his stature? I am a fan of Hutson and of Casey, but it is important to understand the reality of being a small defenseman who has yet to make it.

Edit: I'll also throw it out there that NHLe does not differentiate between NCAA divisions, which biases it against BIG10 prospects and towards those in weaker divisions
Forum: NHL22 févr. 2023 à 11 h 42
Sujet: 2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #10: The Trade Timer Ticks
Random thoughts:

1. The NHL should set a cap for Canadian teams independent from US teams due to exchange rates and taxation.

Hockey is better when Canada is better at hockey.

Every owner would make more money if Canada was better at hockey.

Will never happen because the Canadian owners are outnumbered.

2. I wonder how much opprotunity cost matters.

Purely Hypothetical to explain:

Boston wants Barbashev. Blues want something good in return.

Why wouldn’t the Blues say give us this or will trade him to your first round opponent?

Or another hypothetical example:

Blues trade to Toronto - ROR etc. Dubas should have said, like Vegas did during the expansion draft, that we will only do this deal if you agree that you will not deal with Tampa Bay And Boston.

The cost at the trade deadline is not just the player on your team, it’s the player on the oppositions team as well.

I wonder how often this happens, and how much it costs.

3. I hope this is the end of the contract structure that pushes qualifying offers to the stars. It’s such a bad structure from a hockey, fan, and franchise perspective. It borderline guarantees a player is leaving - giving players under 27 basically a NTC by design at the age of 26. No team would give up assets for these players without a negotiated extension.

If I were a gm the number of contracts I’d write that ended at the age of 26, with a super high final year, would be exactly 0.

Elc —&gt; bridge —-&gt; 8 years or trade is the only path I’d take. You control ages 20-31 with cost certainty.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 févr. 2023 à 4 h 52
Sujet: Could this work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Border_jumper</b></div><div>I'm curious about the likes of Mysak ylonen Richard Farrell and where they stand in contrast.</div></div>

here's my take
both Ylonen and Mysak are blowing their chance.
Mysak was injured this year yes, but since he's been back has done absoloutely nothing for Laval.....with all the injuries and call ups in Laval - he has had his opportunity to show what he can bring to the table and has blown it. I'm not sure if it's misuse of his abilities (ie. center vs. wing) but he has not impressed me at all.
Ylonen is being out performed by RHP at every level. He showed promise last year but is just not showing the consistency we need from a projected middle 6.

Farrell will be in the NHL THIS YEAR once his college season is over and I believe that will earn him a contract and top six position come next year.
Richard is destined to be a 4th liner unfortunately due to his age. I just don't see him cracking the line up
Forum: Armchair-GM24 janv. 2023 à 10 h 13
Sujet: The year Lane Hutson joins the habs
1. I don't think the Habs wait to 2024 to get Hutson signed, I think they sign him at the end of the season and send him to Laval to start the 2023-24 season if he doesn't make the roster out of camp.
2. Hughes has said Dach is a center, I think that means that he is planning on moving Dvorak or Evans soon, as a result I think Caufield flips to RW and Slaf goes to 1LW.
3. Beck is a better 2 way player than Dvorak so if Dvorak stays he is 4C and Beck is 3C.
4. I think Dvorsky is lower on the Habs draft board than 7th, I think if they draft 7th they likely go off the board and take Sandin-Pellikka or Reinbacher. Also with the Russian issues Michkov could fall to the Habs and they would take him over Dvorsky and take Sandin-Pellikka or Reinbacher with the Cat's 1st.

Now with all that said, I think with the players you have (and Sandin-Pellikka instead of Dvorsky), we sign Perets as an NCAA FA, and Evans traded, we line up

Slafkovsky-Suzuki-Caufield
Farrell-Dach-Mesar
Anderson-Beck-Gallagher
Heineman-Dvorak-Roy

Guhle-Sandin-Pellikka
Hutson-Barron
Xhekaj-Mailloux
Kovacevic

Montembeault
Perets
Forum: NHL9 oct. 2022 à 22 h 32
Sujet: 2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #2: Electric Boogaloo
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>Its becoming more and more apparent that this type of behavior is less and less out of the ordinary. From the youth to professional levels in all aspects of the game. It's not just Cole, its a kids on the national teams as well. You don't have two sexual assault funds if this isn't some abnormal thing.

I don't think it needs to be said but I clearly don't <em>actually</em> believe <em>every</em> hockey player is a terrible person because of their profession, but the culture they've been raised in clearly toxic and when these accusations come out, them and their teammates deserve absolutely no benefit of the doubt in the court of public opinion in regards to their innocence. Real change and progress isn't going to happen unless the players start making it aware of the gross actions of their teammates. Time to start putting pressure on the people where it matters.

If this continues as it is and we keep having former hockey players come on this forum and act like all is well, maybe it's time for me to put more time into my other hobbies.</div></div>

To further expand on these very poignant points, the Chicago Blackhawks covered up the sexual assault OF A TEAMMATE because winning was more important. It's not just women trying to get a bag from someone more fortunate. It's coaches. It's hazing. It's the silence from teammates and other players in the league. Racial slurs are still being thrown around haphazardly in youth hockey. Overpriveleged boys are still inappropriately leveraging their positions of "power" (popularity is worth its weight in gold during Jr. and Sr. High) on girls that can't say no due to incapacitation or fear. I'd even go as far as to wager that there are female hockey players and coaches who are just as awful, but because of how seriously the system refuses to take these reports, they don't make headlines.

Ignorance doesn't make this go away. It just means someone suffers silently. Just because you never saw your friends do it doesn't mean it can't happen. The world is a big place and the extents of our childhoods represent such a small portion of what actually goes on throughout North America.

I'm getting very tired of reiterating this point but this is a topic to be handled with the utmost respect. I don't agree with <a href="/users/mondo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@mondo</a>'s guns-ablazing initial takes and really with he'd lead with the thought-out stuff first (and leave it at that). I'm equally disgusted by immediate claims of guilt as I am innocence based on the grounds of "but their Twitter account is only a month old". Everyone on this forum is capable of having adult conversations - I've seen it - so keep it civil.

Hockey is a bad place right now. But it needs to be. Its a great sport but the pain the community is going through is so very vital to ensuring that the sport remains as excellent to us as when we first laced up our skates or went to our first game. Hockey is for everyone, and if there are people within this community who are actively trying to take it away from others based on race, religion, orientation, or use their positions within hockey to bring harm onto others, then we as a community need to seriously step back and reevaluate what it is we truly love about the sport. Is it the game itself or the people we've been lead to believe are hockey themselves? Think about that for a bit.
Forum: NHL20 sept. 2022 à 9 h 25
Forum: Montreal Canadiens13 févr. 2022 à 14 h 29
Sujet: What will happen come trade deadline?
The question I would ask is the following: Can you win a championship with such and such a player?

For example: people like Drouin because of his hands and speed, but he is often hurt and he would do better playing in an American non-hockey market. Lehkonen, again, people love him but he has done the same thing for several years. He tantalizes us with his smarts and defensive abilities but then he also disappears for a bunch of games. Same can be said about Armia.

In 1984, Bill parcels who was then an NFL coach, said in a litter of puppies, you look for the one that has some bite. I've been saying this for 5 years. Hockey teams need continuation. The Habs drafted very poorly from 2012 to 2017. Then improved in the last 4 drafts. That is why people keep saying, the team has good older players and a good crop of young players, but they have a glaring weakness in the middle. For this reason, I've been saying for 3 years, move your older players and build around your younger core.

For example: The current Defensemen, I would only keep Romanov and Schueneman. Romi we all know he can hit and do well in all aspects. He will never be an elite player but he will be a jack of all trades, heavy hitter. Schueneman, I would keep because he can skate and he does not cost much. He is a depth d-man. A lot of people like Kulak. But what does he bring you? points? no, hitting? no, leadership? no. He skates well but he never generates much.

So I would go through entire roster and ask can we win with this guy?

Montreal has Guhle, Mailloux, Harris, Norlinder and Xhekaj coming. Guhle is a 1 or a 3, Mailloux is a 2 or a 4, Harris 1 or 3, Norlinder 3 or 5, Xhekaj a 5. Eventually on these guys, not right away. So you should have some good D.

McNiven is gone. Primeau sill needs some time, but two goalies I've been tracking is Dobes and Dichow. Both these goalies look very promising.

I haven't gone through the forwards as this is getting long, but you have the idea.
Forum: Montreal Canadiens9 févr. 2022 à 0 h 42
Sujet: What will happen come trade deadline?
I find your expectations unreasonable in general.
I'll attempt to not be cruel.

I understand you're often picking up on others' suggestions, but I'm not sure you interpret them correctly most of the time.
It's at the point where your own fanbase finds your suggestions not worth paying attention to, but other fanbases use your posts as credence to the effect that Habs fans in general are way too high on their players.

I ask that you consider re-evaluating your thoughts on what our players are worth.

Generally speaking:
- A quality player (top 6F / 4D) under contract is worth a package including either a 1st or 1st round prospect plus a 2nd or 2nd round prospect. Optionally with a contract coming back for cap purposes. (See Pacioretty with an extension.)
- A middle F/D is worth <strong>up to</strong> two 2nd/3rd picks/prospects. (See Eller/Shaw.)
- A bottom F/D is worth a 3rd or less. (See Cousins/Deslauriers.)

Of course that isn't perfect and there are exceptions. A hot/cold market for a player can affect their value, and this only really applies to selling players for futures.

For rentals the general value is similar, but you can probably forget any top prospects coming back, expect to retain and/or have conditions on picks.
A player's value is also impacted by how high they are on the list of available rentals. (If Giroux is traded you have less of a chance of meeting your demands for Toffoli.)

Again, please consider what constitutes reasonable trade values. None of us are perfect, but there's a happy medium range where we can at least find discussion. The further you stray from that, the less valuable the discussion gets.

As for my expectations this deadline, I expect Chiarot and Lehkonen to be traded.
I also expect one contract with term to be moved out, Armia being the most likely.
Petry would be preferable, but will likely be an off season move, as he will be more attractive to some teams after his $3M signing bonus is paid, and I hope his play improves once the possibility of a trade is shut down for this season.

I hope to see a 1st and decent prospect acquired, even if it means adding picks/rentals to the trades which are completed.

I expect everyone else of consequence to be here for the startof next season.
Forum: NHL29 nov. 2021 à 14 h 40
Sujet: what direction will a new habs management take?
Well just by looking at who they brought in, this would appear to be a full rebuild <em>a la</em> NY rangers did in 2016, I think it was. Gorton is much known for that as well as his drafting record from Boston. It would appear that's where the Habs are looking to improve especially when Molson specifically mentioned drafting top 10 3 times under MB and none are still with the team.

Also just to clarify something here, whoever the Habs get to be GM will essentially be the pawn for Gorton. They'll bring their expertise and have a role to play obviously but its abundantly clear in my mind, that ownership wants the best person for the job but because of the language requirement, it can only be in the form of an non french VP who won;'t speak to media often if at all and a french speaking GM who will speak to the media and fans regularly, working in unison. The GM doing all the day to day things still while communicating to the fanbase but the main direction the team takes will be from Gorton and that's the most important thing.

For all the Habs fans out there wanting a true rebuild and with the best person for the job being hired regardless of language cliche, this is quite literaally the closest we'll ever get to it. I couldn't be happier with the direction ownership took today.
Forum: Montreal Canadiens25 nov. 2021 à 23 h 47
Sujet: Montréal Canadiens Season Discussion Thread
I just noticed that it’s been 13 games since I watched any part of a habs game, other than highlights, Pezzetta’s NHL debut, or the 1st period of Norlinder’s NHL debut. And I watched the entirety of all 78 games last year. I think it’s a mix of the team being miserable, and having fatigue from all of the games last year. And there’s no KK or Carey, so games aren’t as fun to watch.

I mean after the playoff run last year, and with no new/unknown players, I feel like I’ve seen all there is to see, and all the games (even before the habs were clearly not making the playoffs) felt meaningless in comparison to the playoffs. I no longer care about anyone on the team’s individual stats, which is a mindset I adopted a bit in the playoffs.

Also I watched every single game in the 2020 playoffs, and after that I think I’ve lost most of my appetite to watch any team other than the habs. Maybe it’s partially because of the fact that Tampa Bay has won the last 2 years as well.

For the last 2 seasons (18-19 &amp; 19-20) I’ve made detailed notes on every single habs game, writing down every goal, and every lineup configuration, in every situation. This year my appetite for this has been so low that I ended up stopping it completely after the 2nd regular season game. And maybe this is part of why I’m feeling disconnected, because I don’t have the appetite to get invested in the lines every single tiny roster move like I was last year. (Actually, I think a major part of my disinterest is because the habs are operating in LTIR for all of this year, so creating a spreadsheet and monitoring their daily cap hit like I did last season is completely useless now.)

And now I’ve paid $180 to watch the habs win twice and proceed lose all interest in the season. I guess I’ll probably watch Edmonton and Florida in the playoffs, but what an absolute waste of money that was.

Well if you read even part of this, I’m sorry you had to read my random incoherent rambling into the void that really has no direction, point, or any sort of value to anyone else who is reading this. I should probably just go to bed.