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allendeunico

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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM8 août 2017 à 23 h 45
Sujet: Season opener roster tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>allendeunico</b></div><div>

Hi antonc,
who would be your PK pairings based on actual roster?
The way I see it Carrick has already been relegated, was given a full season to show capabilities and instead of increasing his role this season (if his playing and stats are so indicative that he is good) the Leafs sign a 37 year old lefty to play on his particular spot in the lineup.
My read is that Leafs see Carrick as expendable with Rosen, Borgman and Liljegren etc pushing for ice time...which anyway won't be huge if he stay and play on the third pair.
I say again hopefully Marchenko is the one who could be moved, but if Polak is healthy I really see the Leafs bringing him back and someone has to be moved to give him room, forwards I would say Leivo and Fehr will be depth and that leaves only 7 D on roster.</div></div>

To clarify my thought, I should point out first that I use PuckIQ (my former favourite site is now gone) to look at the Leafs defensemen in terms of shot suppression, in particular their Corsi Against, relative to teammates, against the same level of competition. This gives a good idea of how to rank Leafs defensemen in terms of their defensive play, controlling for who they play against. We can see for the Leafs that Gardiner and Carrick rank best, at equality. For the fun of it, we have:

1. Connor Carrick -1.63
2. Jake Gardiner -1.63
3. Martin Marincin -1.24
4. Matt Hunwick -0.76
5. Morgan Rielly 0.75
6. Nikita Zaitsev 2.07
7. Roman Polak 2.35

Again, the numbers indicate the difference in Corsi against (in percentage points) compared to teammates faced with a similar level of competition; lower is better. We see that Carrick and Gardiner performed best defensively last year. On the other hand, Zaitsev struggles defensively and Polak performed worst. (And on a different note, Marincin is probably underrated...)

Based on that, I would pair Gardiner and Zaitsev together. Gardiner helps that pair defensively. This is a pairing that was more frequent in the second half of last season. Then I would pair Rielly with Hainsey; the latter is stronger defensively and would help Rielly. This gives two balanced pairs. Marincin and Carrick would be a very reliable third pair. For the PK, I would not use Zaitsev at all. I would play Gardiner with Carrick, and Rielly with Hainsey. (Not saying that this is what Babs will do, though.)

If Carrick does not live up to expectations (I personally think he could improve further this year if he's used properly), he could leave the year after maybe, when the other youngsters are closer to NHL. But I don't think we can afford it this year. Not unless we acquire a strong RHD in a trade. Even then, I would still prefer to use Hainsey-Carrick as a third pair for the year, and use the new acquisition on the right with Rielly.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mai 2017 à 13 h 13
Sujet: Do we sign the prospects??
allen: Vegas isn't taking a lot unwanted cap space. So Lupul and all these other players on bad contacts that teams want selected in reality won't happen. For the draft, teams have do have a minimum number of players that meet the "games" criteria. But all players that have completed 3 years pro in North American are eligible. People should not confuse "games remaining" with eligiblity of the individual player. IMO Leivo is selected by Vegas.
Doug: Really can't see those players have all much trade value. Teams are looking for players that can improve them at the NHL level. Unless some teams think any of those guys you mentioned are top 9 forwards in the NHL, the trade value even as group I would think would be minimal. I would have though Johnsson with SHL experience would have shown more at the AHL level. And Rychel and Leivo with three and four years in the AHL, to be shows they are almost at their last shot this summer to make the team, before teams would move on to younger players.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mai 2017 à 11 h 41
Sujet: Do we sign the prospects??
Of the restricted: I see the Leafs moving on from Bibeau, and Kalinen this season! I am not sure about signing any of the created, although like Pal, think Korostelev, might be worth a shot! Not mentioned was as above, Brooks and last years 2nd rounder Korshkov (if KHL contract is terminated)! I see at least a number of our LD as part of a trade package to upgrade the right side, and or as a kicker in a trade for offensive upgrade! There is also 3 LD that were selected in the 2016 draft that at this point don't need to be signed, but just adds to the depth and therefore allows us to consider those on your list as trade chips. We are also over inventoried on bubble left wingers and could see any/all of Rychel, Leivo, Leipsic, Johnsson, Lindberg, Moore, or Timashov moved along under the right circumstances! I still believe that 3-4 of these guys could contribute significantly under the right circumstances within the league, but offer more value to the Leafs, as package material!