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allendeunico

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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM14 juill. 2018 à 22 h 22
Sujet: Marlies
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>superbrett</b></div><div>I hope Grundstrom is up in the NHL this year. The goalie situation is odd. Over 10% of the 50 contracts on goalies. Hopefully something is in the works so we can get something for them.</div></div>

You know Leafs like to "over-cook" the players, let them have success in AHL before bringing them up, like Johnsson and Kapanen..Grundstrom will start with Marlies but maybe half season if there are injuries or Ennis/Leivo falter he might get a chance, but I would say one more year..
The golies unless there is a trade for something that makes sense I see Dubas keeping all of them, maybe going with 3 of them last day of training camp (one of them would have to be placed on waivers and hoping gets through), then on first day of season with all teams set, send another one of them through waivers with even greater chance to go through, place Horton on IR, clearing 2 roster spots. Luckily we have many players can be send down without clearing waivers to pull this off.
Forum: Armchair-GM17 août 2017 à 22 h 6
Sujet: What If Lupul Plays?
Maybe this is the reason Brown has not signed yet....if Leafs have now both Lupul and Horton on summer LTIR they could go all the way up to 10M over 75M right?, plenty of space to sign Brown.
But if there is a concern about Lupul situation and only Horton is on LTIR....maybe there is an agreement with Brown already; if things go south with Lupul we sign you 1yr at whatever is possible (next yr still RFA) and then sign a longer deal later, could be even during season after Lupul is traded, buried to Marlies or 'shot on the leg' back to Robida's Island...also he has a NTC listing 14 teams he can be traded to, this could make almost impossible to trade him.

Anyway I agree with Palhal here, Lupul most probably prefer to be not fit to play and get his 3.75M salary due this year than play AHL...
Forum: Armchair-GM17 août 2017 à 21 h 49
Sujet: money
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billius</b></div><div>I'd be surprised if Marleau and Martin are still on the roster in 2019-20. But it will take some sacrificial picks/prospects to move the two worst 2019 contracts.
Also I'm hopeful Gardiner can be signed for just under $6m.</div></div>

I agree Martin last year Cap hit is very expensive, and it will all depend on how much it takes in the end to sign Matthews, Marner and Nylander, if cap constraints Martin will be traded after he gets his signing bonus so only 750K salary would be traded (cap hit 2.5M though so not every team can take that).
Marleau....this is a different story...it will all depend on his production as well, what if he still fit and producing like Jagr...what if not but he doesn't waive his NTC...this one is really a time will tell what is best, first let see him play in Leafs uniform.
Gardiner will be 29 when become UFA, this is one of those hard decisions management has to take, I personally wouldn't commit on a long term contract with high Cap hit (if we have that luxury wich I doubt we will) for a player who enters 30's. A 3 yr contract at 5.5M would be option I think as of now, and probably we won't even have that money, anything more is out of the question....you let him go and hope at least one of the young LHD behind can come up and produce (Dermott, Borgman, Nielssen, and/or picks Mattinen, Middleton etc..).
Forum: Armchair-GM11 août 2017 à 0 h 0
Sujet: Dubas takes over
One intangible that Marleau's contract could bring (if we are lucky) is a benchmark for future contract resingnings...now he is the highest paid player at 6.25M/yr and Lou can say look at his curriculum when other players have to sign....Nylander and Marner might then be signed to 6M x 6yr (would be heck of contract if 6M x 8yr), and Matthews as franchise player would get more, how about a Stamko's kind of deal at 8.5M/8yr.
The way Tampa and Yzerman worked out their roster IMO is the way other teams should try to work with their players to succeed, Matthews will get what he wants bcz there is not way around it, hopefully he sees potential for a great chance of success in Toronto and goes Stamko's way to help build a roster around him, but if not Leafs has no choice but to give him whatever it takes.
Nylander and Marner if want to break the jackpot maybe get a bridge deal and then one of them dealt like Drouin...I hope not the case and the 3 of them get reasonable cap hit to get competitive rosters the following decade.
I still believe 8yr for all are best option as second half of their contracts if cap ceiling goes up avg 1.5-2M/yr you get to 81-83M in 4yr, if the 3 take something like 10M+8M+8M or 26M cap hit still have 55-57M for roster or 2.75-2.85M avg/player for 20 spots, right now with 23 on roster (not counting Horton-Lupul) we are 2.973M/player avg salary.
I wouldn't be surprised if Leafs acquire some other Horton-Lupul type contract/s to play LTIR in future
Forum: Armchair-GM9 août 2017 à 21 h 21
Sujet: D pairs set
The year before Martin Leafs got pushed around a lot, and then turning to an almost all-rookie team it made sense to have someone like Martin as a policeman, if someone starts being an ass with Matthews, Nylander, Marner you know you have to drop them with Martin....actually he is also good on the boards and other team have to be aware cause you are going to get hit when he is on the ice...and he doesn't play that much so is not taking icetime from anybody.
I think what most people don't like is his 2.5M contract, IMO it becomes too expensive on his last contract year when Matthews and Marner have to be resign, he might end up traded because of that (last year cap hit 2.5M but salary 750K so they already thought about that). Anyway if he is gone someone else will take his place, you need someone to protect your best players, if Rychel is still with Leafs by then maybe he does it, I am not sure but I think he also drop them as last year had 118PIM and that is a lot without 5min penalties...and should be able to produce more than Martin as well.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 août 2017 à 1 h 17
Sujet: Season opener roster tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>allendeunico: I would quit talking about Polak,,,,cause he not signed to the Leafs. Don't know if he's even NHL healthy. Leafs fans seem to be mesmerized by players they haven't even seen in North American. Rosen, Borgman, Lilgegren have shown no inkling they are NHL ready. allendeunico, do you really think the 17th player taken in the draft Liijegren is really going to pushing for NHL ice time? Highly improbable.
Most teams wish their bottom end defence was better, but for Leaf fans it seem to be an obsession. "My bottom three HAVE, HAVE to be so much better than most teams." For a 15th ranked team that's pretty unrealistic at least for this year.
One reason Carrick got less ice in playoff it's because on ALL teams, their bottom end players get less ice time in the playoffs. Most due to an easier travel schedule and at least one day between games.

Back in July, I was wrote, I didn't like the Marleau signing, cause I thought the money could have been better spend on a Dman or two. (I don't know who or how) but a trade with a team in cap problem might have been a better move than signing Marleau.

And why you think the Hainsey signing was a "slap in the face to Carrick". You know Hainsey played more minutes than any other Pens Dman in the playoffs.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>allendeunico: I would quit talking about Polak,,,,cause he not signed to the Leafs. Don't know if he's even NHL healthy. Leafs fans seem to be mesmerized by players they haven't even seen in North American. Rosen, Borgman, Lilgegren have shown no inkling they are NHL ready. allendeunico, do you really think the 17th player taken in the draft Liijegren is really going to pushing for NHL ice time? Highly improbable.
Most teams wish their bottom end defence was better, but for Leaf fans it seem to be an obsession. "My bottom three HAVE, HAVE to be so much better than most teams." For a 15th ranked team that's pretty unrealistic at least for this year.
One reason Carrick got less ice in playoff it's because on ALL teams, their bottom end players get less ice time in the playoffs. Most due to an easier travel schedule and at least one day between games.

Back in July, I was wrote, I didn't like the Marleau signing, cause I thought the money could have been better spend on a Dman or two. (I don't know who or how) but a trade with a team in cap problem might have been a better move than signing Marleau.

And why you think the Hainsey signing was a "slap in the face to Carrick". You know Hainsey played more minutes than any other Pens Dman in the playoffs.</div></div>

palhal, i agree with many of your ideas but not all, and anyway I already said I am trying to figure out the way Leafs management do the things, if we go by stats like antonc discribed which makes lots of sense then many things woudl be different, maybe if Dubas was GM would be like that but Babs I think has lot to say about who he prefers to have if possible to achieve for Lou...and we are talking now about third pair D which you agree is not SO important for the team success as 80% icetime will be for top 4. I said signing Hainsey is a slap to the face to Carrick bcz if he is signed and go to camp see who is better ok, but Lou said he came to play top 4 on right side and that's Carricks spot last season.
Polak was third pair RHD and in the playoffs as per your analysis he should have played even less, however, he played 17min and Carrick 12, suffice to say Babs prefered Polak and he said he would have liked to bring back Hunwick as well...players bring to the table more than just stats and Babs likes who he likes even if fans disagree. Reports say Polak will be fit for camp, if so I wouldn't be surprised he is signed again for 1 yr instead of Franson that many people like his stats, doesn't matter how I see it personally, it is what I think Babs would like.
I hope you understand my point.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 août 2017 à 23 h 11
Sujet: Season opener roster tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>antonc</b></div><div>It's true that what happened in the playoffs is slightly worrying, but it's really not the time to get rid of young a RHD for the Leafs.

I'm always concerned when there is a large discrepancy between the stats of a player and coaches' decisions. I've seen teams like Montreal getting rid of their players based on gut feelings too many times. Carrick displayed the best suppression statistics with the Leafs among Ds last year, along with Gardiner. He didn't play as much as Gardiner, but at the very least, he showed positive signs. He may have failed to come out strong in the playoffs, but playoffs are like that: sometimes a player struggles during one series and then bounces back in the next one. The sample is too small to judge.

No reason to let him go for a 5th rounder, even if he's a replacement player. Sorry, but I don't want the Leafs to lose the ball again. Right now our shot suppression and defensive play remain a weakness. Losing that player for nothing does not help at all.</div></div>

Hi antonc,
who would be your PK pairings based on actual roster?
The way I see it Carrick has already been relegated, was given a full season to show capabilities and instead of increasing his role this season (if his playing and stats are so indicative that he is good) the Leafs sign a 37 year old lefty to play on his particular spot in the lineup.
My read is that Leafs see Carrick as expendable with Rosen, Borgman and Liljegren etc pushing for ice time...which anyway won't be huge if he stay and play on the third pair.
I say again hopefully Marchenko is the one who could be moved, but if Polak is healthy I really see the Leafs bringing him back and someone has to be moved to give him room, forwards I would say Leivo and Fehr will be depth and that leaves only 7 D on roster.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 août 2017 à 22 h 39
Sujet: Season opener roster tweaks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No this absolutely crazy. You may not like Carrick but he did show he can play in the NHL. But you don't trade him away for nothing and put Marchenko in the lineup. And the dropping of gloves. C;mon to lose a Dmen as opposed to a forward. Dmen are encouraged to stay out of fights early in the games.
It's not difficult why some players, especially Dmen get their ice time dropped in the playoffs. Yes the games are intense but teams do not play back to back games and the travel is relatively easy. So the top players often get their ice team increased for all teams, And bottom end players get their ice time dropped on all teams, not just Carrick.</div></div>

Palhal I don't dislike Carrick, I just think Babcock DO LIKE Polak better than Carrick even if you don't like Polak... Polak was probably the difference why Leafs lost series to Washington.
I agree would be better to trade away Marchenko and keep Carrick, but the odds are nobody takes him and I don't see Leafs giving picks to force trade (could have done it with Vegas expansion draft).
If Carrick stay and don't have a decent season he is probably not staying long term anyway with so many depth pushing for his job. The return I explained above was not my point, the point was he could be moved to open spot for Polak, I really think you never read the explanations and jump to the throat of everybody right away...
I put myself in Leafs management shoes trying to see what they would do, this is not my personal ideal roster if you know what I mean.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 août 2017 à 5 h 29
Forum: Armchair-GM7 août 2017 à 4 h 16
Sujet: I dont think JVR will be traded, but I go with Hype Yeah?
and JVR has a NMC submitts a 10 team no trade list....I am not sure if Carolina would be or not on that list..if you were JVR which 10 teams would you block a trade to?, my guess;
1. Vegas, 2. Colorado, 3. Arizona, 4. NJD, 5. NYI has to be bcz already block a trade at the draft, 6. Vancouver, and I already run out of the obvious ones...doesn't need to list Detroit bcz have no cap to take him anyway, neither could Chicago, STL, NYR,TPA, MIN, PIT, PHI and WAS. I don't think he would go to Winnipeg so this will be my 7 on the list.
That leave us ANA, OTT, NSH, LAK, CGY, MTL, BUF, SJS, BOS, FLA, COL, EDM and Carolina...I don;t see the leafs trading JVR to a rival for a playoff spot, so IMO if JVR is traded the most suitable teams would be ANA, NSH, LAK, CGY,SJS, EDM.
Leafs would trade him for D, and if you look at what those teams have to offer....CGY and NSH are the only ones with nice D upgrades, but I don't see any of them interested to give away D for 1yr JVR.

So after this I am even more convinced JVR won't be traded until deadline IF Leafs are out of playoff race, which hopefully is not the case.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 août 2017 à 21 h 41
Sujet: Leafs-Preds
I just think trading away JVR and Bozak will weaken the Leafs too much this year, I could see that second line coming together next year but not this season.
Leafs seem to be happy to start season with actual D corps; Rielly-Zaitsev // Gardiner - Hainsey or whichever combination Babs uses, this 4D will eat most of the TOI and is a fairly good D, the bottom pair only concern would be to have someone who can PK unless Gardiner is given the role this year so we could see same top 4.
Third pair and depth; Marincin - Carrick (who played top 4 last season) and fighting for spot Marchenko, Rosen, Borgman, Dermott, Nielsen, Loverde, Valiev....Liljegren projected to play top 6 in 2 yrs

Unless someone TOP 4 gets hurt with long term injury I don't see Leafs trading for a D.
IMO JVR and Bozak help to keep chemistry of the team, point producers and good FOW%, now we have a forward group as good as anyone in the league, make a playoff run and make changes next summer.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 août 2017 à 2 h 42
Sujet: Maple Leafs
IMO will be Leivo instead of Kapanen, Leivo has to clear waivers and last year shown can produce even long time scratched or injured, and Kapanen better play games with Marlies and be called up if required as he can be sent down without going through waivers.
Regarding D, we shouldn't be surprised if Polak gets invited to camp, if he is healthy and Marchenko doesn't convince Babs, he could be traded for peanuts to give room for 1yr contract to Polak. If someone like Dermott makes team taking Marincin spot, then worry would be pairings for PK (remember Hunwick and Polak were 1-2 in TOI PK last year and both are gone now), Reilly- Zaitsev and Marincin - Hainsey would make sense, if Marincin is out then I don't know, Gardiner and Carrick haven't played PK and a rookie wouldn't be thrown there.
I think this is a weakness on roster and why I wouldn't be surprised to see Polak back, also Carrick seems to be running out of favor.