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Season opener roster tweaks

Créé par: allendeunico
Équipe: 2017-18 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 8 août 2017
Publié: 8 août 2017
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
This probably won't be very popular with other Leafs fans, please let me explain why trading away Carrick;
Carrick played 67G last season paired mostly with Gardiner TOI 16:20/game with aprox 55sec PP per Game and 26sec PK per Game
Playoffs started GM1 playing chippy and GM2 J.Williams told him to drop the gloves see what you got and after that disappear...his TOI 12:16 fewer of all used D (with even Marincin playing RHD covering Carricks min), which 21sec were PP and zero PK.
Babs said after locker cleanup that playoffs is when he learn most of players, well, regarding Carrick it wasn't very good I guess when Leafs sign Hainsey and Lou said right away he can play RHD and he will play top 4 min...a slap in the face to Carrick.
While he is young and cheap he is not trusted and Leafs right now have lack of PK defenders (Hunwick and Polak were nbr1 pair last season).
So I trade away Carrick to Colorado which is in need of them for a 5th rd bcz Carrick was a 5th himself, maybe could get more or trade to another team as he is cheap etc...but my point is he could be moved to give room to hire Polak for 1yr, who has his limitations but Babs knows what he is getting, and with this you have a better PK units.
Would be better if it was Marchenko but I doubt anyone would take him (was waived last season when Leafs took him everyone else passed on him). He could be waived though to Marlies if someone like Valiev or Holl are good enough in camp for depth spot. Begin of season Dermot, Rosen, Borgman etc better playing with Marlies often than sitting press box, and be called up later to cover injuries or if Marincin for example not playing good enough.
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2375 000 000 $71 979 167 $5 370 000 $4 550 000 $3 020 833 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
6 250 000 $6 250 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 3
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 850 000 $$3M)
C
UFA - 2
894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AD
UFA - 1
4 250 000 $4 250 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
4 200 000 $4 200 000 $
C, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AD
UFA - 2
2 950 000 $2 950 000 $
AD, AG, C
UFA - 1
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
C
UFA - 5
3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
2 500 000 $2 500 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 4
612 500 $612 500 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 5
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 7
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 4
4 050 000 $4 050 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
850 000 $850 000 $
G
UFA - 2
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
1 450 000 $1 450 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
5 300 000 $5 300 000 $
AD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
5 250 000 $5 250 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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8 août 2017 à 22 h 29
#1
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No this absolutely crazy. You may not like Carrick but he did show he can play in the NHL. But you don't trade him away for nothing and put Marchenko in the lineup. And the dropping of gloves. C;mon to lose a Dmen as opposed to a forward. Dmen are encouraged to stay out of fights early in the games.
It's not difficult why some players, especially Dmen get their ice time dropped in the playoffs. Yes the games are intense but teams do not play back to back games and the travel is relatively easy. So the top players often get their ice team increased for all teams, And bottom end players get their ice time dropped on all teams, not just Carrick.
8 août 2017 à 22 h 33
#2
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Young mobile 'modern' RHD like Carrick don't grow on trees. He's needed on the third pair and still has upside at 23.
Someday he might get traded when Leafs can improve on him (eg when Liljegren is ready) but right now he's their #5 and worth a lot more than a 5th round pick.
8 août 2017 à 22 h 39
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Quoting: palhal
No this absolutely crazy. You may not like Carrick but he did show he can play in the NHL. But you don't trade him away for nothing and put Marchenko in the lineup. And the dropping of gloves. C;mon to lose a Dmen as opposed to a forward. Dmen are encouraged to stay out of fights early in the games.
It's not difficult why some players, especially Dmen get their ice time dropped in the playoffs. Yes the games are intense but teams do not play back to back games and the travel is relatively easy. So the top players often get their ice team increased for all teams, And bottom end players get their ice time dropped on all teams, not just Carrick.


Palhal I don't dislike Carrick, I just think Babcock DO LIKE Polak better than Carrick even if you don't like Polak... Polak was probably the difference why Leafs lost series to Washington.
I agree would be better to trade away Marchenko and keep Carrick, but the odds are nobody takes him and I don't see Leafs giving picks to force trade (could have done it with Vegas expansion draft).
If Carrick stay and don't have a decent season he is probably not staying long term anyway with so many depth pushing for his job. The return I explained above was not my point, the point was he could be moved to open spot for Polak, I really think you never read the explanations and jump to the throat of everybody right away...
I put myself in Leafs management shoes trying to see what they would do, this is not my personal ideal roster if you know what I mean.
8 août 2017 à 22 h 45
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Quoting: Billius
Young mobile 'modern' RHD like Carrick don't grow on trees. He's needed on the third pair and still has upside at 23.
Someday he might get traded when Leafs can improve on him (eg when Liljegren is ready) but right now he's their #5 and worth a lot more than a 5th round pick.


Mobile modern RHD with 0.12points/game last season and zero in the playoffs....and Leafs sign a 37 yr old and no modern Hainsey to cover Carricks spot in the lineup...maybe Rosen and Borgman signings have already taking his job away as soon as this season.
8 août 2017 à 22 h 48
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It's true that what happened in the playoffs is slightly worrying, but it's really not the time to get rid of young a RHD for the Leafs.

I'm always concerned when there is a large discrepancy between the stats of a player and coaches' decisions. I've seen teams like Montreal getting rid of their players based on gut feelings too many times. Carrick displayed the best suppression statistics with the Leafs among Ds last year, along with Gardiner. He didn't play as much as Gardiner, but at the very least, he showed positive signs. He may have failed to come out strong in the playoffs, but playoffs are like that: sometimes a player struggles during one series and then bounces back in the next one. The sample is too small to judge.

No reason to let him go for a 5th rounder, even if he's a replacement player. Sorry, but I don't want the Leafs to lose the ball again. Right now our shot suppression and defensive play remain a weakness. Losing that player for nothing does not help at all.
8 août 2017 à 23 h 11
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Quoting: antonc
It's true that what happened in the playoffs is slightly worrying, but it's really not the time to get rid of young a RHD for the Leafs.

I'm always concerned when there is a large discrepancy between the stats of a player and coaches' decisions. I've seen teams like Montreal getting rid of their players based on gut feelings too many times. Carrick displayed the best suppression statistics with the Leafs among Ds last year, along with Gardiner. He didn't play as much as Gardiner, but at the very least, he showed positive signs. He may have failed to come out strong in the playoffs, but playoffs are like that: sometimes a player struggles during one series and then bounces back in the next one. The sample is too small to judge.

No reason to let him go for a 5th rounder, even if he's a replacement player. Sorry, but I don't want the Leafs to lose the ball again. Right now our shot suppression and defensive play remain a weakness. Losing that player for nothing does not help at all.


Hi antonc,
who would be your PK pairings based on actual roster?
The way I see it Carrick has already been relegated, was given a full season to show capabilities and instead of increasing his role this season (if his playing and stats are so indicative that he is good) the Leafs sign a 37 year old lefty to play on his particular spot in the lineup.
My read is that Leafs see Carrick as expendable with Rosen, Borgman and Liljegren etc pushing for ice time...which anyway won't be huge if he stay and play on the third pair.
I say again hopefully Marchenko is the one who could be moved, but if Polak is healthy I really see the Leafs bringing him back and someone has to be moved to give him room, forwards I would say Leivo and Fehr will be depth and that leaves only 7 D on roster.
8 août 2017 à 23 h 27
#7
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allendeunico: I would quit talking about Polak,,,,cause he not signed to the Leafs. Don't know if he's even NHL healthy. Leafs fans seem to be mesmerized by players they haven't even seen in North American. Rosen, Borgman, Lilgegren have shown no inkling they are NHL ready. allendeunico, do you really think the 17th player taken in the draft Liijegren is really going to pushing for NHL ice time? Highly improbable.
Most teams wish their bottom end defence was better, but for Leaf fans it seem to be an obsession. "My bottom three HAVE, HAVE to be so much better than most teams." For a 15th ranked team that's pretty unrealistic at least for this year.
One reason Carrick got less ice in playoff it's because on ALL teams, their bottom end players get less ice time in the playoffs. Most due to an easier travel schedule and at least one day between games.

Back in July, I was wrote, I didn't like the Marleau signing, cause I thought the money could have been better spend on a Dman or two. (I don't know who or how) but a trade with a team in cap problem might have been a better move than signing Marleau.

And why you think the Hainsey signing was a "slap in the face to Carrick". You know Hainsey played more minutes than any other Pens Dman in the playoffs.
8 août 2017 à 23 h 45
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Quoting: allendeunico


Hi antonc,
who would be your PK pairings based on actual roster?
The way I see it Carrick has already been relegated, was given a full season to show capabilities and instead of increasing his role this season (if his playing and stats are so indicative that he is good) the Leafs sign a 37 year old lefty to play on his particular spot in the lineup.
My read is that Leafs see Carrick as expendable with Rosen, Borgman and Liljegren etc pushing for ice time...which anyway won't be huge if he stay and play on the third pair.
I say again hopefully Marchenko is the one who could be moved, but if Polak is healthy I really see the Leafs bringing him back and someone has to be moved to give him room, forwards I would say Leivo and Fehr will be depth and that leaves only 7 D on roster.


To clarify my thought, I should point out first that I use PuckIQ (my former favourite site is now gone) to look at the Leafs defensemen in terms of shot suppression, in particular their Corsi Against, relative to teammates, against the same level of competition. This gives a good idea of how to rank Leafs defensemen in terms of their defensive play, controlling for who they play against. We can see for the Leafs that Gardiner and Carrick rank best, at equality. For the fun of it, we have:

1. Connor Carrick -1.63
2. Jake Gardiner -1.63
3. Martin Marincin -1.24
4. Matt Hunwick -0.76
5. Morgan Rielly 0.75
6. Nikita Zaitsev 2.07
7. Roman Polak 2.35

Again, the numbers indicate the difference in Corsi against (in percentage points) compared to teammates faced with a similar level of competition; lower is better. We see that Carrick and Gardiner performed best defensively last year. On the other hand, Zaitsev struggles defensively and Polak performed worst. (And on a different note, Marincin is probably underrated...)

Based on that, I would pair Gardiner and Zaitsev together. Gardiner helps that pair defensively. This is a pairing that was more frequent in the second half of last season. Then I would pair Rielly with Hainsey; the latter is stronger defensively and would help Rielly. This gives two balanced pairs. Marincin and Carrick would be a very reliable third pair. For the PK, I would not use Zaitsev at all. I would play Gardiner with Carrick, and Rielly with Hainsey. (Not saying that this is what Babs will do, though.)

If Carrick does not live up to expectations (I personally think he could improve further this year if he's used properly), he could leave the year after maybe, when the other youngsters are closer to NHL. But I don't think we can afford it this year. Not unless we acquire a strong RHD in a trade. Even then, I would still prefer to use Hainsey-Carrick as a third pair for the year, and use the new acquisition on the right with Rielly.
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9 août 2017 à 0 h 11
#9
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Thanks antonc for your elaborate answer, it does make sense what you explained, but Gardiner has been very seldom used on PK and Carrick even less. Most of the playing time is a game is 5 on 5 but you will agree special teams matter a lot now a days with so even match ups game in an game out. Marincin is a good PK, Babcock once said it last season he is probably best on the roster at it, but he needs to get in the lineup to play PK...
Maybe they go for Reilly-Hainsey// Gardiner- Marincin? (he played RHD during playoffs and was ok) on the PK, I just dont see Babs trusting Carrick on PK (this is how I see them thinking, not my personal opinion on Carrick)
9 août 2017 à 1 h 17
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Quoting: palhal
allendeunico: I would quit talking about Polak,,,,cause he not signed to the Leafs. Don't know if he's even NHL healthy. Leafs fans seem to be mesmerized by players they haven't even seen in North American. Rosen, Borgman, Lilgegren have shown no inkling they are NHL ready. allendeunico, do you really think the 17th player taken in the draft Liijegren is really going to pushing for NHL ice time? Highly improbable.
Most teams wish their bottom end defence was better, but for Leaf fans it seem to be an obsession. "My bottom three HAVE, HAVE to be so much better than most teams." For a 15th ranked team that's pretty unrealistic at least for this year.
One reason Carrick got less ice in playoff it's because on ALL teams, their bottom end players get less ice time in the playoffs. Most due to an easier travel schedule and at least one day between games.

Back in July, I was wrote, I didn't like the Marleau signing, cause I thought the money could have been better spend on a Dman or two. (I don't know who or how) but a trade with a team in cap problem might have been a better move than signing Marleau.

And why you think the Hainsey signing was a "slap in the face to Carrick". You know Hainsey played more minutes than any other Pens Dman in the playoffs.


Quoting: palhal
allendeunico: I would quit talking about Polak,,,,cause he not signed to the Leafs. Don't know if he's even NHL healthy. Leafs fans seem to be mesmerized by players they haven't even seen in North American. Rosen, Borgman, Lilgegren have shown no inkling they are NHL ready. allendeunico, do you really think the 17th player taken in the draft Liijegren is really going to pushing for NHL ice time? Highly improbable.
Most teams wish their bottom end defence was better, but for Leaf fans it seem to be an obsession. "My bottom three HAVE, HAVE to be so much better than most teams." For a 15th ranked team that's pretty unrealistic at least for this year.
One reason Carrick got less ice in playoff it's because on ALL teams, their bottom end players get less ice time in the playoffs. Most due to an easier travel schedule and at least one day between games.

Back in July, I was wrote, I didn't like the Marleau signing, cause I thought the money could have been better spend on a Dman or two. (I don't know who or how) but a trade with a team in cap problem might have been a better move than signing Marleau.

And why you think the Hainsey signing was a "slap in the face to Carrick". You know Hainsey played more minutes than any other Pens Dman in the playoffs.


palhal, i agree with many of your ideas but not all, and anyway I already said I am trying to figure out the way Leafs management do the things, if we go by stats like antonc discribed which makes lots of sense then many things woudl be different, maybe if Dubas was GM would be like that but Babs I think has lot to say about who he prefers to have if possible to achieve for Lou...and we are talking now about third pair D which you agree is not SO important for the team success as 80% icetime will be for top 4. I said signing Hainsey is a slap to the face to Carrick bcz if he is signed and go to camp see who is better ok, but Lou said he came to play top 4 on right side and that's Carricks spot last season.
Polak was third pair RHD and in the playoffs as per your analysis he should have played even less, however, he played 17min and Carrick 12, suffice to say Babs prefered Polak and he said he would have liked to bring back Hunwick as well...players bring to the table more than just stats and Babs likes who he likes even if fans disagree. Reports say Polak will be fit for camp, if so I wouldn't be surprised he is signed again for 1 yr instead of Franson that many people like his stats, doesn't matter how I see it personally, it is what I think Babs would like.
I hope you understand my point.
9 août 2017 à 8 h 29
#11
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I mentioned that I ranked Carrick 5th.
Antonc really nailed it in his review but here's another angle, using "Goals Above Replacement" (GAR). Blue is +ve, Red is -ve.
You can see why I question signing Polak and dropping Carrick.

http://imgur.com/a/Ovn6q
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9 août 2017 à 8 h 40
#12
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allendeunico. As a Leaf fan, I would love it if the Leafs could add a competent Dman, especially a RHD. If Polak or Franssen could do the job, great.
Reilly, Gardiner, Hainesy at LHD. Zaitsev, Carrick and Franson on RHD, with Marincin at 7 might be as good as it gets this year....and that isn't too bad.
Then cross the fingers, are Dermott Rosen, Borgman, Liligren, Nielsen ready to be NHLers in a year or two.
I'll disagree on your math even the 5/6th Dmen play about 15 minutes a game during the season which 25% of the time each. And if there is a injury to the "top 4" they play more. Either way you look at it your top six Dmen, even your 7th guy who is going to see ice time and maybe even your 8th guy if there are two injuries....better by NHL good. You just can't hide them even if they play just 12 minutes a game.
 
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