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PaIhal

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3 sept. 2023
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM17 sept. 2023 à 1 h 17
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2023 à 20 h 8
Sujet: if ya squint its mint
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Why would his bonus be paid out on a different day from everyone else?</div></div>

July 1st is that standard. You can technically pick any day during the season.

I just know for a fact that it's September 15th and if you Google it about 90% of analysts seem to have heard the same from me and others I guess. But it's definetly tomorrow.

As to why, idk for sure. Some teams have fiscal years that end in August so they like to push some money into the next year to balance their books. So it could be that they did that in Year 1 and decided to do that each year after. Some players negotiate for delayed bonuses if the salary is low on the last year to avoid being traded to Arizona for example who likes those kind of deals.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2023 à 19 h 57
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2023 à 16 h 51
Sujet: Insights
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MaxBorjshlapsky</b></div><div>Fans need to respect what Tavares has brought to this team, I was guilty of trashing his play when he started really slowing down in the second round and sometimes in the season he looked a bit slow but Tavares is a very cerebral player, he contributes at a elite level and his an amazing leader I don't care what comes of the next 2 seasons he's well worth his contract in my opinion as for the next contract I suspect he has 2-3 years in him anywhere from 2.5-5M/yr but we'll have to wait and see...I just have to say he's worth 11M/yr for the next 2 years no matter what anybody that cries about his contract is totally wrong....these days you can't put much stock in the knowledge and reaction of fans of any team they are emotional and not that educated for the most part try to be better than fans and form your own opinions closer to opinions of those that work in the sport and you'll see Tavares legacy is already set at one of the highest levels, winning a cup could make it the greatest legacy ever but it's an opinion and i don't think Tavares could do a thing to hurt his legacy so if others act like he's done something wrong I will never agree.</div></div>

To be clear, I'm not saying that he's performed poorly, he's essentially been a PPG his entire time as a Leaf. And $11M was a discount.

That being said legacy is based on perception not facts. If he performed the same and won a cup in the last 5 years he'd be known as the savior and he could command $10M on his next deal and nobody would care. I agree with you that people like us will always respect him but the general public and the media won't and without that his chances of being inducted in the Hall of Fame, Jersey Retired, Invited To Leafs functions, etc all decline. Phaneuf is a great example of a guy whose numbers showed he was a solid top pairing guy (Not a #1) but definitely a solid D his entire time as a Leaf. Went to the conference finals playing as the #3 on Ottawa. You'll rarely see him invited to captains functions or Leafs events in Toronto.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2023 à 14 h 2
Sujet: Insights
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KrakenTheCode</b></div><div>I know we've discussed this before at length and disagree on our valuations of Brodie, but I genuinely believe Borgen is a more valuable player at this point and Seattle declines this trade offer.

After our last conversation, I dug through Borgen and Brodie's numbers, even looking through a side-by-side comparison a Leafs fan posted on a different thread. I genuinely could not find anything that definitively proved Brodie was a better defender. Their defensive metrics were largely the same, with only a couple minor differences. Both were part of their respective teams' shutdown pairing, meaning they faced the opposition's top offensive threats with regularity. If anything, Brodie plays a handful more minutes per game, while Borgen is more productive offensively and has better possession numbers. At this point, I view them as roughly equal defensive defensemen, but Borgen is probably the more valuable player, as he's younger, cheaper, and plays the right side naturally.

The main reason I don't think Seattle makes this swap though, has more to do with their franchise's current direction. The Kraken are building a contender now but are also looking to remain competitive for years to come. Brodie is in his 30s and is on the downswing of his career, while Borgen is 26 and coming off a breakout season, meaning he is just entering his prime with room still to grow. Their career arcs are headed in opposite directions, and Borgen's trajectory better serves the Kraken both now and in the future than Brodie's would. For that reason, I think Seattle would choose to keep Borgen in the fold.</div></div>

Not sure what stats you are looking at but you are WAY off base.

If you look at TOI by period, Borgen played the least of all Seattle D in the 3rd period by a significant amount. In short he wasn't trusted to play "important" minutes.

For reference in the last 20 games of last season Oleksiak (his partner) played 20mins a game on average and Borgen played 15mins.

Where Brodie is better is Zone Entry denials, this is his bread and butter and why he pretty much breaks all analytics models. He stops players from entering his zone better than anyone else in the league.

Borgen is more like a young Oleksiak. They both allow players into the zone and make plays deeper in their zone and they both have excellent first passes after making a play defensively.

The way to look at this trade is this:

Brodie - Elite defensive D, kills counter attacks in the neutral zone, helps to keep your team on the offense. Excels at playing with offensively minded players who manage play from the blue line.

Borgen - Good defensive player, still improving. Can throw hits, drive players to the boards and kill plays there and make a quick pass to his partner. Not trusted by his coaches but shows the potential to thrive in a bigger role.


So why would Toronto do this?

1. Cap - Saves them $2.3M.
2. Stability - They know they have him for 2 years
3. Complimentary - His style of play complements Rielly very well (if Toronto wanted to play him there) or complements a shutdown D like McCabe or Seeler.

Why would Seattle do this?
1. Team Style - Brodie plays a style that fits Seattle better than Toronto. Seattle is a strong Neutral zone team, Toronto is a possession team. Brodie's biggest strength can often hurt Toronto cause it creates lose pucks in the neutral zone. Seattle is great at transitioning in the neutral zone, Toronto prefers to build from their own end.

2. Complimentary - Brodie can do for Dunn what he did for Gio when he was a Norris caliber D or for Rielly and.provide stability and kill counter attacks that are left open by their offense. He also fits Dunn better than Rielly because Dunn like Gio controls offense from the blue line. Rielly goes deep and screens the goalie (like of the Tavares OT winner in Game 6 vs Tampa) he is essentially a 4th forward. So when Brodie kills the counter in the Neutral zone often it's the 3F who needs to recover the puck and that can create problems cause they aren't D and don't regroup properly. Dunn controls play from the blue line so even if he messes up he's a step behind the attack not stuck deep in the O zone. So if Brodie stops the attack Dunn can pickup the puck and get back on the attack or regroup.
3. Flexibility - this type of trade clears some cap space next year and make sit easier for Seattle to put aside money to chase a UFA D (like Hanafin) if they want to bolster the D corp next summer.


So whether or not Seattle would make the trade idk. But I want to at least give you the proper analysis of the two players. Brodie is definitely significantly better in a vacuum BUT their styles are different as is their age and cap hit and that all needs to be factored in.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2023 à 13 h 44
Sujet: Insights
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MaxBorjshlapsky</b></div><div>Treiliving wants to fight Dubas for leaving him with Brodie at a $7.5M salary that's just ludacrous ..treiliving didn't extend Brodie in Calgary and that's why he ended up in Toronto, jarnkrok is also beloved by Nylander who loves every swede I keep mentioning $10M + for Nylander is great but $9M is a bigger raise in salary than Matthews got probably comes in at 9.3 or 9.4 it is a lot but hopefully Tavares in 2 seasons will help to even out the cap if Marner Matthews Nylander are big 3 paid guys it's normal that teams have 3 forwards at 9M+

But Brodie as the guy to move makes the most sense completely just finding a taker and having Brodie agree otherwise the team hits the ice with 20 or 21 skaters.

I also want every teams fan base that thinks their team will sign Nylander in free agency to be furious when he extends his contract around January during this coming season or even be signs with Toronto next summer :) that would be the worst for all the other teams to see it would sweede</div></div>

This is 100% my personal opinion but I think for his legacy, Tavares needs to resign for 3*$1M or something like that. He is the team captain and if Jumbo, Spezza, Gio, Simmonds were willing to do it then he should be too.

I know he is better but if he wants to remove the questions around his commitment to the team and retire with a fan base that appreciates him coming to Toronto and sacrificing for the team he's going to need to do this. He will make up the money over the next 3 decades in sponsorships if he plays it right.
Forum: Armchair-GM14 sept. 2023 à 13 h 39
Sujet: Insights
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Now you're making me worried.. Trevling was GM of the Flames for 10 years. Three playoff round wins, three times didn't qualify for the playoffs. He may not like the Leaf players but geez, appear he didn't do good job constructing a team In Calgary.
Kinda funny that if Trevling wanted to change the Leaf defence, he had the chance but the only real change was 4.1m Klingberg....who appears to very similar to Dubas type player.
I know many think Schenn wqs a type of player the Leafs should had signed instead. You would think he could have been signed for a 4m X 1 year contract.
Thanks for the insight.</div></div>

I'd say that we should consider the fact that Brodie hasn't already been traded as a sign that Treliving still wants value in a deal. He isn't just looking to dump Brodie. But if Brodie is his plan for cap compliancy then he may end up selling low before the season starts.

The insight on Jarnkrok was more interesting to me. Seems very clear the Leafs don't want to move him which makes 90% of Leafs ACGMs and predicted starting rosters wrong.
Forum: Armchair-GM13 sept. 2023 à 17 h 57
Sujet: 4C and 3RD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UpsideDownQue</b></div><div>Why? Tatar is a pure winger he doesnt do anything to fix the 4C or 3RD/LD weak points on the roster</div></div>

I don't follow the Avs closely but I'll chip in with a few general insights.

1. Tatar is a guy you sign to help you from November to February when you are trying to push through an 82 game schedule. He adds nothing to a playoff team. I'd be surprised if the Avs made this signing intending for him to play in Game 1 come April/May.

2. The holes you are trying to fill can wait till the deadline. You might end up trading for a guy who was going to be waived or getting someone on waivers or having a young guy overperform. Sakic has been good at leaving space for the roster to grow and plugging holes near the deadline. I'd expect him to do the same.