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McDavidFan97

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Forum: Armchair-GM23 mars 2021 à 15 h 1
Sujet: Neal to LTIR next year
Yea the Neal on LTIR scenario is pretty unrealistic but it's fun to consider the possibilities. I don't wish injury upon him but he's been mysteriously "unfit to play" at times this season. Possibly Covid after-effects so you never know. I might be reaching, maybe he's just out of shape lol

Hall contract makes sense imo. I've seen people say he wouldn't go for a 1 year deal at $6.5 but I can't see him getting many bigger offers. He could inflate his stats with McD and get 1 last big deal with money and term, somewhere else. Unless he likes the fit here and takes a team-friendly deal. When his deal ends we can be certain there's money left for Bear, Nurse and Pulju raises, then reassess the 1st line LW situation, maybe Holloway fits there, or another cheap "show me" contract. I'd understand if Holland passed because of his history in Edmonton though. Iaffolo could be a backup option, I'm sure he'd like to pump up his stats for cheap with McDavid

3rd line looks solid. Replacing Kassian with Granlund could work out well. A 2 year deal could work for Granlund imo, and he could be replaced by Lavoie or another prospect. I'd be somewhat concerned that Zajac takes a steep decline at 36 and we're left scrambling to fill the 3C spot with a 4th liner, yet again. Zajac does have a good FO% and seems to be a solid defensive player, so in theory, he would be a great addition but there's a bit of risk. I'm starting to prefer a 3C with 2 years of term so we can keep the same group of guys together for longer, and pass that role to McLeod or Holloway when they're 100% ready

Larsson deal times well with either Kemp, Kesselring or another prospect getting a chance to fill that spot. Grubauer contract times well with Skinner/Konovalov taking the starter role, with Cossa as backup (I also think we'll take Cossa if he's available when we pick + if we keep our pick. Top tier goalie prospect from Edmonton, makes a lot of sense). If we manage to get Coleman on the 4th line I'd be extremely happy. Would definitely lower the defensive responsibilities of our top guys, and create some more depth scoring

I'd like Martinez in the top 4 over Jones if we manage to make the money work. Maybe if Yamo takes a bridge we could afford it. I think he'd supply good veteran leadership and be a good mentor for Bouch on a 1-year deal. Broberg would take his job the following season. Plays well in his own end and chips in some offence. He can still lead by example. He's won cups, could be helpful in the playoffs

Overall I'd be very happy if things played out like this
Forum: Armchair-GM22 mars 2021 à 19 h 12
Sujet: 21-22 DeBrusk In Bear Out Barrie Back
Barrie is a defensive black hole. Tippett benched him in the final minutes and let Nurse-Larsson, Russell-Bear close out the game against WPG. When you really think about a 3 year Barrie contract it makes even less sense than it does on the surface

Next year with these lines we'd get by OK but it makes no sense having 2 offensive RD

2022-23, Broberg will be replacing Russell in this plan. Broberg and Bouchard will need sheltered minutes, and won't PK. They can't be relied on to shut down 1 goal games. Barrie can't defend, so lump him into that group too. That means half your defenseman can't PK or be relied on for steady defense

Keep Bear because he's much, much better defensively, PK's well and can be relied on in close games, not benched like "top 2 defenseman" tyson barrie. I like what Barrie has done this season, but you can't have more than 1 or 2 sheltered defenders

Dont trade Bear for DeBrusk. Sign Iaffalo or Hall, and let Barrie walk
Forum: Armchair-GM22 mars 2021 à 16 h 43
Sujet: Neal stays on LTIR - Offseason upgrades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Danault is excellent defensively, don't get me wrong. I would like him in an Oilers uniform for that reason, I think this team just needs a shutdown line to free up McDavid and Draisaitl from those duties at 5v5. But don't expect Danault to bring any offense with him though, as Gallagher and Tatar drive the offense on that line. Like this:

Past 2.5 years at 5v5
with BG + TT: 78.87 CF/60
w/o BG + TT: 52.32

with BG + TT: 41.64 SF/60
w/o BG + TT: 29.52

with BG + TT: 3.68 GF/60
w/o BG + TT: 2.06

with BG + TT: 3.23 xGF/60
w/o BG + TT: 2.03

with BG + TT: 16.35 HDCF/60
w/o BG + TT: 10.28

Again, I'd like to see Danault anchor a shutdown line in Edmonton. I'd just be leery of signing him for that much money as he's unlikely to cover that contract just due to lack of offense.</div></div>

Fair enough, all of your points are valid. I was probably a bit off saying he isn't carried by his linemates lol. He does have the best +/- on Montreal though, which tells you something. I do think that he would really shine in a shutdown 3C role as you mentioned. What we need in a 3C is: solid faceoff skill, defensive capability, 30-40 points in an 82 game schedule, PK ability, and possibly someone who can drive a 2nd PP. IMO if we don't find a guy like that we're really missing an opportunity to give McD and Drai lighter minutes and possibly more offensive opportunities. Danault is the only UFA who fits the bill imo. Maybe's: Haula, Wennberg, Granlund, Lowry, Bonino. Who do you think would be the best fit. I don't think we are ready to rely on a prospect for that role yet

I don't have any analytics to back this up but I think it's also fair to assume Danault does pretty well offensively on the 3rd line. In MTL the opponent likely matches their best defensive line against Danault's. With EDM the other team would match their 3rd best line against his. Seems like something that would benefit his offence? I know $5.25mill is a lot but I think what he brings is extremely important and you have to consider that there are very few options. Better than taking a cheap, low risk flyer on another underperforming guy like Turris and having a mediocre 3C. It's pretty safe to assume we at least know what we're getting with Danault, even if we pay a premium

Another note: his 2 year deal makes sense for him so he can get a big pay day somewhere else if he plays well when his deal ends and the cap starts to rise. It makes sense for us because Holloway/McLeod will be ready for his job after 2 years, and we'll have money to extend them. It also times well with Bouch and Broberg needing bridge deals. It's a good way to spend the money we have available without getting even more top heavy. If you have a better idea for 3C though, I could be convinced
Forum: Armchair-GM22 mars 2021 à 14 h 51
Forum: Armchair-GM22 mars 2021 à 14 h 48
Sujet: Neal stays on LTIR - Offseason upgrades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Danault is a very good defensive center, but doesn't produce enough offense to justify that sort of contract. A big part of his offense is due to playing with two very good wingers. Also, good luck playing Kassian on a shutdown line...</div></div>

You seem like a fan of advanced stats, I'm surprised you don't value them more dollar-wise. Danault has finished 6th and 7th in Selke voting the last 2 seasons, why doesn't he justify $5.25mill?. He's having a down year offensively this season and has been a bit unlucky (his linemates aren't carrying him at all). He's still maintaining elite defensive stats. We really need a productive, consistently positive goal differential, strong 3rd line. We have 2 4th lines currently, an awful bottom 6 on paper, one of the worst in the league. There's not exactly a reliable 3C option in free agency. There's still $3.5 mill left over after signing Danault here

I don't love Kassian on that 3rd line either but I don't see many options

You should try making an ACGM for a scenario where Neal stays on LTIR, the money needs to go somewhere
Forum: Armchair-GM22 mars 2021 à 14 h 6
Sujet: Neal stays on LTIR - Offseason upgrades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nhl_oilers</b></div><div>I think Seattle will take Kassian. I believe 5.25M is way too much for a 3c, but Danault could be an option, if he wants to come. I personally rather trade Bear, and resign Barrie. This is a pretty good team!</div></div>

I always appreciate reasonable responses, thanks. I could totally see Seattle going for Kass. I like Danault at 3C because it gives us insane depth. We can move him to 2C when we stack the top line. We really need a good 3C, and he could have a good defensive influence on Holloway. I don't know where else we'd spend the money, this plan already has $3.5mill in cap space. I like what Bear has to offer defensively, while Bouch can replace Barrie's offence, I do like what Barrie's done this season though. Barrie needs sheltered minutes, Tippett benched him in the final minutes of that Winnipeg game. Bouchard, Broberg, and somewhat Lagesson need sheltered minutes in the future, no room for Barrie imo
Forum: Armchair-GM21 mars 2021 à 13 h 8
Sujet: Keeping Barrie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Petey232323</b></div><div>1. Barrie is a defensive black hole
2. Barrie has been carried by stars for his whole career
3. We shouldn't trade our best dman (Ethan Bear) for someone worse
4. Letting Caleb Jones go to expansion is stupid since he's probably our 2nd best dman.</div></div>

I agree that Barrie is awful defensively and we shouldn't resign him. Also agree that Bear is getting a whole lot of hate for no reason. He's an amazing puck mover, plays great defence and also has some offensive upside

But I can clearly see that your basing views solely on CF% and FF%. IMO there's a lot more to it. I look at that stat purely as a measuring stick for puck moving and transitional ability. Bear is great at stopping plays before they develop and moving the puck up ice. Similar with Jones, although using the elusive eye test, I don't see the same level of vision that Bear has. I think we should keep Lagesson over Jones, and Bear over Barrie
Forum: Armchair-GM19 mars 2021 à 17 h 46
Forum: Armchair-GM19 mars 2021 à 15 h 54
Sujet: Just a dumb random thought
A Bouchard - Bear pairing makes some sense. I recall Bear playing the left side for a game or 2 last season. They can both move freely on the ice without being restricted to one side. Would be a very elite puck moving, offense driving pair that grows well defensively going forward

Btw, its crazy how much people on the receiving team of a Neal dump will argue a hypothetical trade. There's only so many teams looking to make a run at the cup that have a bad contract and would be willing to spend assets to dump it. Theres quite a few teams looking to get paid to take on salary and not many willing to pay to unload it.

Realistically, teams I could see spending to unload contract are: EDM (Neal), Tampa (Johnson?), Carolina (Gardiner/Skjei). Maybe you could make an argument for another team or 2.

Teams that would likely be willing to take on cap: Seattle, Chicago, Anaheim, Ottawa, Detroit, LA, NJD, and several potential rebulders this summer: Pittsburgh, CBJ, Arizona, Nashville, Dallas, etc..

The market is clearly shifted towards teams with contracts to unload. The cost could be surprisingly low
Forum: Armchair-GM18 mars 2021 à 18 h 30
Sujet: A Legit Contender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>I get people like bear so do I but we can’t just brush off the fact that Barrie is without a shadow of a doubt significantly better in just about every aspect. Nearly point per game in the exact same role bear had last year. Home grown talent creates a biased view point.</div></div>

I rarely advocate for advanced stats but Barrie's are awful. McDavid plays worse with him on the ice 5v5. Bear makes us a much better team than Barrie 5v5. Barrie's points will earn him a $5mill+ contract but between his bad 5v5 impact and the fact that he will take PP minutes away from Bouch I'm against an extension. A big extension would hurt our future. I love what he's doing this season although I wouldn't mind seeing him play less 5v5. I think people are way too critical of him though. To be clear I like what he's brought to the team, Bouch isn't ready for his role this season

This tweet has a graphic of Bear vs Barrie's 5v5 impact. It's a bit confusing if you don't know the terminology but blue means better offensive production, red means worse

Once Bear cleans up some of his mistakes I think more people will realize his impact

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tyson Barrie vs. Ethan Bear <a href="https://t.co/99NcYgoe44" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/99NcYgoe44</a></p>— ً🅺🅾🆂🅺🅸🅳🅰🅳🅳🆈 (@fakenewsshater) <a href="https://twitter.com/fakenewsshater/status/1372594144829452289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">March 18, 2021</a></blockquote>
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mars 2021 à 15 h 7
Sujet: Hall and Hamilton
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>newmy</b></div><div>Hamilton not elite? My man, you need to look into some advanced stats on all of these players before making claims like that. Hamilton is ,quite literally, one of the best defensmen in the league. He is, literally, elite ad defending and moving the puck. He will, at least, command a similar contract to Pietrangelo.

With regards to Hall, I’ve already agreed numerous times that there are other options available for lesser $$ and term.</div></div>

The more I consider it, the more I think Hamilton makes sense. We have a surprising amount of cap space. PP1 could be: Hamilton, Bouch, Drai, McD, (Pulju/Yamo/Nuge). Might not be a realistic signing, but could work potentially. Might need to dump Neal in his final year to ensure we have cap to resign Bear, Nurse, Pulju. It definitely cuts things pretty close, doubt we take the gamble anyways
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mars 2021 à 14 h 12
Sujet: Hall and Hamilton
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DONTGIVEAPUCK13</b></div><div>What about Lagesson? My Protected List is: Connor, Leon, Nuge, JP, Yamo, Kahun, Jujhar Bear, Nurse , Kelf/Larsson? idk if Holland resigns guys before the draft</div></div>
Here's how I'd do it

Assuming we: trade Jones, waive/trade Stalock, Klefbom is out for good or ruled ineligible for expansion: Protect 7/3/1: Nuge, Leon, McD, Pulju, Yamo, Jujhar, Archibald, Nurse, Bear, Lagesson, Skinner.

Available (under contract): Neal, Kassian, K. Russell, Turris

RFA rights available: Benson, Marody, Kahun

Pending UFA's: Larsson, Nuge, Barrie, Ennis, Chiassion

I assume all of our pending UFA's either want to test free agency before deciding on a contract, or extend with us. Benson, Kahun and Marody's RFA rights are essentially worthless, they are basically UFA's as well. Last summer Buffalo didn't even match the Oilers 975k offer on Kahun, and he's been worse this year. My guess is one of the guys under contract gets taken, probably Turris? Maybe they work out a deal to take Neal because we have nothing good to give them

If Klefbom returns (which is unlikely because it sounds like he's getting a shoulder replacement from what I've heard), we should resign Nuge after expansion and this plan essentially stays the same with the exception that Kharia is made available. If he wants to stay an Oiler he just tells Seattle he won't sign there. His RFA rights aren't worth anything either. I assume he wants to stay an Oiler so it doesn't effect anything
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mars 2021 à 12 h 56
Sujet: Hall and Hamilton
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>newmy</b></div><div><em>Zero</em> incentive?

Neal is a serviceable NHL player and only has two years left. Seattle won’t be able to pull off the same success as Vegas did and likely won’t be competitive for at least two+ years. Their focus is going to be on building up a pipeline of prospects. They’ll also likely need some hefty short term contracts to help hit the salary floor... Neal is an NHL player who helps them get to the salary floor and bridges them for two years when he can be replaced by prospects. Finally, a mid-first round pick is a damn good incentive to take on Neal, who, like I explained, helps them already achieve some of their other goals. I wouldn’t say that’s <em>zero</em> incentive.</div></div>

Exactly. And assuming we trade Jones, they'll likely only have Turris, Neal, Russell, Kassian to choose from. Unless one of our pending free agents signs with them at expansion which is unlikely

Between those 4 choices, why wouldn't they just take a 1st and Neal. We have 0 value besides that to offer
Forum: Armchair-GM17 mars 2021 à 1 h 9
Sujet: Bye bye Kosko - Realistic-ish offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bringer_Of_Snow</b></div><div>Obviously there is a chance they all make it, but from what I've seen from Marody, the guy is a career AHL player. He doesn't really excel at anything in particular. Seems like a really blank player.

Benson has the hockey sense to make it, but year after year, zero improvement on his skating.

McLeod will be our 3C next season. I just have a feeling. He looked great two summers ago and he plays really really hard. I really like his game</div></div>

I probably got a bit too hyped about that line. You make some good points. Although I honestly would rather any of the 3 play over Neal. As a 12/13th forward either of the 3 would do. Next season will be interesting once they've developed even more. Marody and Benson have limited upside who knows if they stick around agreed

I like McLeod. I'm not sure he's ready to be a reliable 3C next season but who knows. From what I've watched, most of his assists have been secondary and a lot of his goals have been breakaways and penalty shots. I think he's still working on his offense but clearly has a ton of speed, playmaking and shooting ability