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Jah1722
Jah1722
Membre depuis
3 janv. 2018
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Ducks d'Anaheim
Messages dans les forums
5418
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2.3
MESSAGES
SUJETS
MENTIONS "J'AIME"
ÉQUIPES VIA FAUTEUIL-DG
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 janv. 2022 à 17 h 59
Sujet:
Wheres Klingberg going
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>Hedman not having to drag Rutta along would be a massive upgrade and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in TB. They’re always going for it.</div></div>
Hedman and Klingberg? That would be sick to watch.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
25 déc. 2021 à 19 h 43
Sujet:
minnesota wild cup run - canucks retool - JT miller 50retained - marco rossi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nighthawk</b></div><div>Nice effort but it’ll always be wasted on Minny homer fans. FYI all they’re players are untouchables if you haven’t noticed lol
Top 10 scorers grow on trees & Minny being a contending juggernaut cannot live with Miller on the cheap</div></div>
Not with the buyout cap hits the next 3 years, those eliminate their ability to trade an elc for a contract. As it is they need to shed players before next season not accumulate a new one, not matter how good he is.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 déc. 2021 à 18 h 19
Sujet:
This is actually hilarious
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>Friedman’s reported ask by BUF.</div></div>
And endorsed by many Buffalo adherents on CapFriendly.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 déc. 2021 à 18 h 6
Sujet:
This is actually hilarious
Well, we tried to tell them . . .
Forum:
Armchair-GM
12 déc. 2021 à 17 h 55
Sujet:
Thats Neat
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>When you have 3 firsts you need one of them to pan out as top of the line up player at least. That’s all I’m saying. I know it wasn’t a failure. Just think it should have been better.</div></div>
Not arguing with you, certainly was not the 3 players i wanted at the time. It’s just funny how whenever this is posted it’s made out to be an epic fail of a draft. It wasn’t, just could have been a lot better.
Edmonton had a draft where they had double digit picks and not one of them ever played an NHL game. That’s an epic fail.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 nov. 2021 à 19 h 27
Sujet:
Big fish hunting
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I’m more realistic with his play. It’s not been good. I still think a team would like to add him for the playoffs tho. I think a 2nd and 3rd is the high mark for him.</div></div>
No matter how bad he's been I'm sure he's better than Risto lol
Forum:
Armchair-GM
6 nov. 2021 à 17 h 7
Sujet:
Gibby
Edmonton fans don't want Gibson. They think that they have two HoF goalies right now, and the fact that Gibson is signed until he's as old as Koskinen is now is a minus to them, not a plus.
We'll stumble along with Gibson until his contract runs out. Why should we be guilty of foisting a bum on such a playoff-successful team like the Oilers? After all, with one Stanley Cup series win in the last five years, I'm sure McDavid and Draisaitl are due another one soon.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
30 oct. 2021 à 18 h 50
Sujet:
Sabres
Pretty sure you added Zegras by accident.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
29 oct. 2021 à 19 h 35
Sujet:
How does Eichel fit
Who wouldn't waive to play on one of the best teams in the NHL?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 oct. 2021 à 17 h 56
Sujet:
if these rumors are true
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>He literally tweets things like an hour before Friedman posts something in his 32 thoughts and claims to be first all the time. He gets info but it’s usually the same info that someone else puts out in an article or in a tv hit but because they’re actually employed and save the info for company they work for he gets it out a little earlier and acts high and mighty for it.</div></div>
I noticed him a bit more during the offseason with the Landeskog negoitions....it was guys like him and Dave Pagnotta of the 4th period who were being the loudest with the biggest takes but never could back them up with anything of substance, so when they were proven wrong, time has passed and people move on and forget how wrong they were.
The guys who do rumours for all the league usually have no inside information just comb twitter and reddit for nuggets topass off as sources. If they were credible they would be on TV or bigger social media as a real person and face. Twitter insiders are a dime a dozen
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 oct. 2021 à 20 h 46
Sujet:
Coming to terms with Erik Brannstroms trade value over the course of the season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I doubt they give up on him since he was a major piece in the EK trade.</div></div>
You mean Mark Stone?
o_O
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 oct. 2021 à 20 h 39
Sujet:
Coming to terms with Erik Brannstroms trade value over the course of the season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I didn’t realize Brannstrom has 60 games in the NHL. I would expect him to get a decent run this season again based on that.
Were waivers a part of why he didn’t make the team? Looks like OTT forced the LHD-RHD pairs based on the depth charts on here.</div></div>
We went and signed MDZ and Brannstrom was the only guy we could send down. We should’ve waived one of the other Ds but didn’t for some reason.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
28 sept. 2021 à 16 h 54
Sujet:
Team Canadas Defense Vs USAs Defense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>evelutions2</b></div><div>The reigning Norris winner who had the Norris gifted to him. Fox would not have won the Norris if the Wilson situation went completely differently. I would take Makar over Fox anytime, anywhere.</div></div>
What does the Norris has to do with Wilson?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
26 sept. 2021 à 18 h 6
Sujet:
I hear Olli Juolevi is in a little bit of a pickle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>Juolevi is 23. He’s exiting prospect territory.</div></div>
I agree but I'd still rather have him, the pick, and the cap space over Mikhayev
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 sept. 2021 à 19 h 7
Sujet:
Resigning Barkov and the cap situation
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>Gotta dump Bob</div></div>
hornqvist
Forum:
Armchair-GM
17 sept. 2021 à 17 h 1
Sujet:
Yamamoto trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>It’s always smart to trade UFAs you sign before they even play a second for your team….</div></div>
Heyyyyy, I do that in NHL 2021 :(
Forum:
Armchair-GM
15 sept. 2021 à 15 h 13
Sujet:
San Jose quick rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I’m sure you said the same about Mailloux and look how that turned out.</div></div>
Or try to sign Voynov in the past, wanted to sign De'Angelo in the heat of his on ice issues or have a GM who was working for the Blackhawks midst their harrasement scandals
If there was GM who would make a move for Kane, its Bergevin, the guy has a sketchy past
Forum:
Armchair-GM
8 sept. 2021 à 18 h 14
Sujet:
Next season
as a leafs fan i like that trade for both sides
Forum:
Armchair-GM
7 sept. 2021 à 17 h 54
Sujet:
Next season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I don’t think he’s available but where was the debunking? I missed it.</div></div>
The original tweet was deleted and multiple reliable sources said is was fake
Forum:
Armchair-GM
22 août 2021 à 13 h 52
Sujet:
TEAM CANADA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Marchy</b></div><div>Woahhh chill the F out…. Pelech was a good d-man and I have him on my team Canada too but cmon he’s not a top 5 dmen in the league like wtf</div></div>
He was a top 5 D last season
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Adam Pelech, signed 8x$5.75M by NYI, is one of the league's top shutdown defencemen who is more responsible than anyone else for the Isles' analytical glowup since the 2020 bubble. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Isles?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">#Isles</a> <a href="https://t.co/ghSDuCqqbA" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/ghSDuCqqbA</a></p>— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1423654053368799238?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">August 6, 2021</a></blockquote>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
17 août 2021 à 16 h 55
Sujet:
Petey and Hughes long term ferland starts opening day on IT
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Artman91</b></div><div>Hughes is not gonna sign a 6.8M contract. Look at Heiskanin, Jones, Nurse, Hamilton and Werenski. Why would he take much less than them?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Makar got 9, Hughes gets close over the same term. Otherwise it's 7+ over 2-3 years and then 10+ long term. Petterson is supposed to be a top 5 centre according to you guys. If he is, 8 years is over 11. 6 is definitely 9+</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Artman91</b></div><div>There are many teams who would offer sheet if that’s the case. It does not matter whether it’s UFA or RFA. Vancouver is in a tough situation. If Hughes does not get what he wants, he’ll request a trade. Then what is Vancouver gonna do? They have no choice. Hughes will get 8.5M+. Unless it’s a 3 year deal I can see him taking 7.5M at the least. There’s two things to look at, him requesting trade if proper deal not found. Or he’ll sign a 3 year deal, become UFA and go to Devils to play with his brothers which he would definitely prefer.</div></div>
You really can’t use any of nurse, Jones, Hamilton, or werenski as comparables. Even Hughes’ agent said so himself in an interview with the province a couple of days ago: https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-elias-pettersson-quinn-hughes-deals-take-time-agent/wcm/5a8f79f7-b325-4952-bc01-4ec46b23ca77/amp/
The main comparables are makar, heiskenain, chabot, and macavoy. Since I’m proposing a 6 year deal, let’s start with Makar who is the only comparable who signed for 6.
Hughes and Makar were pretty close in their rookie seasons. Hughes had higher totals, but Makar had a better ppg and ultimately won the Calder. Some will point out Makar had better analytics as well.
Beyond that though, this past season we saw Makar was the most productive D-man in the NHL, came 2nd in Norris votes (Hughes received 0 votes on any Norris ballot) and was the #1 defenseman on one of the best D-cores in the league.
For Hughes, while he was still very productive offensively, he took a noticeable step back defensively, both from the eye test and analytically. Vancouver was the most permissive team defensively last year and this was still true when Hughes was on the ice. He did show once again he is a number 1 pp quarter back and his skating, puck handling, and iq are all elite, but he is not on the same level as Makar at this point. His AAV on a 6 year deal should reflect this gap in overall pay.
Now let’s look at heiskanen. Hughes is obviously more effective offensively (although interestingly they had very similar points per game numbers in the 2020 playoffs). That being said, heiskenen has a more refined all-round NHL game. I think you could argue either way about which is the more valuable piece, meaning their contracts should be similar. But their is an important distinction from a negotiation standpoint. Heiskanen’s contract buys 4 UFA years, where as the one I’ve proposed for Hughes in the OP only buys one UFA year. By having this contract expire so much earlier into Hughe’s UFA window, it will greatly lower the AAV of the contract.
Looking at Chabot, the situation is very similar to heiskanen. Hughes plays a smaller role on the Canucks than a habit did for the Sens before locking into his deal, but I think one could argue hughes is the better player. The structure of Chabots deal is very similar to heiskanens, so the logic that fewer UFA years = lower AAV still applies
Finally we’ll look at MacAvoy. Much more if an all round Defensemen compared to hughes. It took him longer to hit high production levels, but his defensive play has always been stellar. MacAvoy took a 3 year deal at only 4.9 millionwhich buys 0 UFA years, expires as an RFA, but gives him a big qualifying offer (7.3 million). Hughes’s production levels will certainly help him in his negotiations, so it’s reasonable to assume he would get a higher AAV anyways, and buying 3 additional years we would expect a significant increase over 4.9.
Based on all these comparables. And AAV somewhere between MacAvoy and Makar on a 6 year deal seems reasonable. If the Canucks went for 8 years, we would likely see the AAV come in near heiskanen or Chabot, but by avoiding buying those extra UFA years, it should save some dollars off the cap hit.
There for, I think a cap hit of around 7 million in a 6 year deal is perfectly reasonable, right in line with his peers, and accounts for both his strengths and weaknesses as a hockey player. I shaved off a couple hundred grand given Hugh’s status as a 10.2C RFA, who has less leverage than a typical RFA. It should allow the Canucks to grind him down a little bit further for minor cap savings, similar to MacAvoy or Boeser or Gaudreau, etc.
For Pettersson, I looked at Barzal, point, and draisaitl as comps. I also looked at rantanen and Marner although their offensive numbers in the final year before they signed are much higher than any season Pettersson has ever had, so they aren’t very good comparables. Barzal has the most similar career to Pettersson so far, with a Calder win, near point per game play, number one C, high playoff scoring, high skill, etc. I think it’s very reasonable to assume Pettersson comes in at almost the exact same number as Barzal on a 3 year.
Point is intersting. He exploded in his platform year, but Tampa bays ability to get players to take a discount makes it hard to read his actually contract worth. I would say Pettersson signing a similar deal in Van, given tax situation etc., would bring petey in at just above 7 on a 3 year deal. This is inline with Barzal, so we can be pretty confident that the AAV for three years would be around 7.
For draisaitl, I looked specifically at his 2016/2017 season and compared it to 2019/2020 for Pettersson. This is both players best seasons on their ELC’s and both players we 20 years old at the start of their respective seasons (draisaitl turned 21 in October of his season, Pettersson turned 21 in November of his). They had very similar stat lines that year, similar regular season points per game, similar playoff points per game. Pettersson had a higher goals per game in the regular season. Draisaitl signed his deal when the cap was only 75 million, so an equivalent deal today would come in at 9.2 million over 8 years, buying 4 UFA years.
So from those comparables, we can project 7 million over 3, or 9.2 over 8. over 6 years, we would see Pettersson fall somewhere in between. However, since a 6 year deal buys 2 UFA years, and those are more expensive, we should expect the AAV to be closer to 9.2 than it is to 7. I picked 8.5 kind of arbitrarily but I think it makes sense from this perspective.
I also considered using Aho as a comprable, but that doesn’t really make sense with a offer sheet. I also tried to compare Pettersson to hischier and Keller, but it’s obvious petey is a tier or two above those guys.
So yeah. TLDR going over 9 million for either player on a 6 year deal is an overpay. Hughes probably shouldn’t even be above 7, based on comparables.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>Not as much as you think. Nurse and Jones were UFAs at contract’s end. Hughes is an RFA that can’t even get offer sheeted. That’s a major difference when it comes to negotiating his contract. Makar’s contract is the biggest influence and I don’t see Hughes getting to his number. I think $8M max for him on a similar length deal.</div></div>
^this guy gets it
Forum:
Armchair-GM
13 août 2021 à 17 h 38
Sujet:
Destroying the core for no good reason I guess
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I know this isn’t serious but that ducks trade is bad for ANA. Myers is one of the worst players in the league and he makes more for the same amount of time as Henrique who’s at least still a serviceable NHLer.</div></div>
Agreed. That trade was only thrown in to make the roster work. Had too many D and not enough forwards otherwise
Forum:
Armchair-GM
30 juill. 2021 à 18 h 18
Sujet:
last dance
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>The good ol fashion trade a UFA you just signed 24 hours ago…</div></div>
. . . back to the team that made him a UFA in the first place by not giving him a Qualifying Offer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
23 juill. 2021 à 17 h 0
Sujet:
Suck it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>Of all the bad contracts mentioned I think OEL is the best player but also the most expensive contract. I like the deal for VAN. That top 6 is gonna be very good.</div></div>
Wont be able to buy him out in 2 years once final bonus is paid next year. Savings are minimal with buyout. Benning obviously doesnt care about that as he'll probably be gone. This means the next 2 years are ALL IN!
Benning made the right move for him, we will see if this pays off for the Nucks in the next 2 years in a bad division. When ppl were saying the North was a good opportunity to make a run. Pacific is much the same
Forum:
Armchair-GM
23 juill. 2021 à 15 h 13
Sujet:
Suck it
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>If VAN unloaded Eriksson in the deal would you still hate it?</div></div>
Meh. I'm afraid of a Benning trade at this point, especially, after seeing Fletcher robbed today!
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