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AC14

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23 déc. 2022
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Trade Machine Proposals29 févr. à 16 h 1
Sujet: testing trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>EatMyScoobySnack</b></div><div>He could become available if Blues Really need to Fully rebuild / Retool as he have good value and could bring back excellent return. And if there an trade it would be more an summer trade as it is more easy to work cap space.

But your right no team will ever take that much retention for this less value. If there was one or two year maybe team would entertain the idea of retention but not 6 years.</div></div>

There is not going to be a full rebuild. Not happening. Nor should it. People need to let that notion go. The franchise cannot afford it and the fans would melt down halfway through the first season, and meanwhile we're totally punting the primes of Thomas and Kyrou. It would take a cartoonishly ridiculous offer to get Parayko.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 17 h 25
Sujet: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Lindstein is David Runblad if he isn't Carl Gunnarsson. Maybe I'm exaggerating the prospect part but it's impossible to judge for a few more years. I just don't see much to get hyped about.

You're getting into the weeds when you talk about puck decisions; look at the big picture and tell me that replacing Krug with Forsling is gonna make this team a contender. 3 guys on pace to eclipse 45 pts. 21st in goals, 15th in goals against while getting the absolute max performance from the goalie tandem. Anyone who needs to be moved can decline the trade. This team is stuck in the mud my friend.</div></div>

Lindstein was compared to Hampus Lindholm at the draft. I understand that’s best case scenario but if he pans out to be a 2nd pair two way D that’s a win in my books. Gunnar was a solid 2nd pair D who you didn’t notice all the time but did the right things. Same with Grzelcyk in BOS, even though he’s falling out of favor. Ideally we finish somewhere between 7-11 and draft a Dman (Dickinson, Parekh, Buium, Jiricek). This is the perfect 1st round class to pick a top 4 D.
Forum: Armchair-GM29 févr. à 15 h 28
Sujet: BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CantStopWontStop</b></div><div>I don’t take issue with much, but I aim differently.

GMDA and the Blues record of drafting and development stands on its own, so things like Burns and Stenberg are hard to criticize.

My issue is that Doug Armstrong went to the draft floor last year intending to retool the roster, and did not.

At the previous trade deadline he took all the center ice minutes, except Robert Thomas, and traded them away. The replacement? 1 center who needed another team to pay half his pay due to being meh.

So now stl leads in cumulative wjc u20 scoring. That’s a huge waste for our organization, we have no business having that much firepower in non nhl leagues. He should have done his job, used some of that to have a better active roster.

What was the point of Vrána? When it was clear he was not working, the replacement is?

During the season we’ve had countless games where scandella, or another lefty, is on the right so perunovich can get minutes. Fine. I guess. Except it’s not. It’s routinely punished by other teams. The jets got 2 goals dumping the puck to scandellas side and watching the blues screw it up. The next night, the blues play the oilers, use normal defense pairs, and surprise?! The team can break out of its zone normally and the game is competitive.

So he had that deadline, the draft floor, and whiffed. Now he has a trade deadline. If he whiffs again, fire him. Maybe he’s pissed off too many of his peers, or they don’t trust him, whatever.

I hope it’s embarrassing for him. He’s been a smug pos the last 2 years or so. Dude thinks he is waaaay fancier than he really is.</div></div>

Better active roster for what purpose? To barely make the playoffs? Like they could trade a 1st and Otto Stenberg for Jake Guenztel but is that really making them all that much closer to a cup this year, even if they make the playoffs? And then what do you do in few years, without a good forward prospect, a seemingly top 15 pick, and with 33 year old Jake Guentzel?

If we're assuming they literally can't move anyone with a NTC, I think they've done a decent job with roster decisions since last year- didn't commit any more money to a team that isn't competitive, prioritizing player development (Perunovich, Neighbours) over what's actively going to give them the best roster to win every night. They need to start shedding their bigger money commitments but again, not exactly something they have had full control over (and that's what Armstrong's biggest failing is).

I agree that he needs to be more active in retooling the roster, but I'm not sure if you can get there without taking some steps back first.
Forum: Armchair-GM28 févr. à 13 h 3
Sujet: Buch to Col
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Completely understand that. We tried a similar situation with Buchnevich last season. He was pretty decent at everything aside from faceoffs which he was terrible at. I don't disagree that a top 6 center would be a much better fit. Realistically who out there is available? Vancouver jumped the market with Lindholm. Monahan, while he's been great for Winnipeg thus far and Henrique seem more like 3rd line scoring options. I guess you could bump them up if you'd like to and hope the supporting cast elevates them.

Would it be better for you guys to make a 2 year heavy push like this, even if it means the positional fit isn't perfect? or stand pat and hope what you have is enough?

Another thing I thought about was doing it from the Colorado side and excluding Scandella back to Colorado with the retention and moving him elsewhere while adding a center somewhere else. Or excluding Johansen and Scandella from the trade and adding retention of 1.8m to get Buch down to a similar cap hit to Byram, I just figured it seemed like Johansen wasn't really a great fit there with Colton playing 2C currently.

I guess Colorado could try and offer something fairly similar to Calgary for Kadri, but with how treacherous it is for Western Canadian teams to lure UFAs Calgary may be reluctant to trade a guy like Kadri especially given it's a less than 0 chance they could ship out Huberdeau anytime soon.

Zegras may be a good place to explore, I just don't know what they'd want in return for him and he's a bit of a freelancer. Middlestadt maybe if you believe what he's doing now is sustainable, but that would probably be a bit difficult to extend him unless he'd take a shorter term prove that this was sustainable contract which is definitely likely</div></div>

I think the Avs have to stand pat or take a gamble on a younger less proven guy, possibly even overpaying to acquire one. Other than that it's a blockbuster overpay trade for someone none of us think is available like JEE or Danault. Novak or Frost would be my choices for younger guys. Standing pat is risky as far as the Avs window goes but there's the hope Ritchie comes through faster than anyone really imagined, and maybe Colton can continue to grow as 2C in the meantime. Kovalenko is also playing C in the KHL atm and is proposed as a top 6 player by some but again, that would be a gamble - hoping he can come over later this season and jump straight in there. The internal guy if he wasn't in the PAP (though hopefully returning soon and will be a huge boost) who possibly could be a great conversion to 2C would be Nuke imo. No idea how he or the Avs would feel about that one though. Most of the guys you mentioned are either not ideal, unavailable or unaffordable for the Avs going forward.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 févr. à 12 h 9
Sujet: Is this acceptable
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BDHockey</b></div><div>
I thought the value was relatively fine. Bolduc has good value, but he might also be one of the better of our abundant young forwards to turn into a defenseman.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>The offer was an overpay. It was a former 17th OA pick and a 2nd.

If you're looking to get the type of return you suggested, Ferraro isn't getting moved, which I'd imagine is fine if you see him as Jaccob Slavin as you seem to.</div></div>

I tend to agree that of the "higher end" forwards the Blues have in their system Bolduc is the one that makes the most sense to move in a larger trade. And yes the Blues have been winning recently, so that makes it more tempting to pull of a larger trade now. But I'm not convinced now is really the time for the Blues be moving those assets given the money they have on the books. So many of the guys they're relying on heavily being over 30- Parayko, Faulk, Binnington, Schenn in particular- there's still plenty of opportunity for this team to take a step back in the next year or two even with the reinforcements they have coming.

And there's a lot of variance to what Ferraro can be moving forward. He's got a good enough hockey IQ to be a solid defenseman on a contending team, but at 25 he's probably not reaching "top pair on a contending team" level anymore. I think he was an easy player to get hyped about given his attitude and more intangible qualities but if the Sharks are valuing him at Slavin level, that's especially too rich for the Blues given where they are.

I'm not opposed to adding though. I'd just bet smaller. Blues should consider looking into Ty Emberson if they're targeting young defensemen on the Sharks. Good defensive metrics, better than Ferraro's (on a terrible defensive team). He's been averaging 18 minutes a night for them (though he's only played half the season). Don't think he would cost a lot either.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 janv. à 18 h 11
Sujet: ALL IN FOR PARAYKO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mm1010</b></div><div>if you look at his buy out is would regularly be just over 2 Million
since he had high base salary on the front end and lower on the back in those years his cap hit is 3.7M for the last 3 years of his deal.... so 1.7M more expensive to buy him out</div></div>

Two things:

1. You're assuming the buyout happens at the end of this season? The math looks totally different than what you present: it's about $550k for two years, $2.2M for a season, $3.7M as you identify from 2027 through 2030, then drops to about $2.05M for six years. I get the point that you're making (more expensive versus conventional contract) but the uber-expensive buyouts that you're referring to were the back-diving deals like what Crosby, Ovechkin, Keith, and Weber were signed to many moons ago. <a href="/users/AC14" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AC14</a> sets up a scenario where it's likely to be only the +35 years that the buyout focuses on. I believe that sets up June 2028 as the timeframe to look at this buyout from.

2. The four years of Parayko's buyout in 2028 onward progress as:

2028-29: $3.3M
2029-30: $3.3M
2030-31: $1.6M
2031-32: $1.6M

As long as the buyout happens after 2026, there's no fluctuation to the cap hit Parayko's buyout holds.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 janv. à 17 h 56
Sujet: ALL IN FOR PARAYKO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Trading Parayko moves the Blues into a scorched earth rebuild status. Effectively wasting most of the careers of Thomas and Kyrou.

There is no effective way to replace what Parayko brings to the team unless it's via draft. And drafting and developing a top end shutdown guy isn't necessarily easy.

We mostly know that nobody is going to give us the pieces that we would need in order to move Parayko, that's why we largely say he's not being moved.

Armstrong's plan is to be competitive again in the 26-27 timeline. Parayko very much has quite a few good years of hockey left in him. It's often overlooked too that his contract was front loaded. If he does fall off a cliff towards the last couple of years 35+ years he can easily be bought out if necessary although I don't see how it will be if the cap keeps rising.</div></div>

Thank you laying it out. I only seek to understand where the Blues are coming from and this makes total sense now.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 janv. à 18 h 0
Sujet: Start the rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Can you tell me what the difference is between 26 with worse stats and the same amount of team control albeit at a higher rate? At the end of the day you're going to get both for around 6-8 years at 8-9 million.

And i would disagree with your assessment of Mukmahdullin. He was deeper in the Devils pool, but that's because the devils pool was incredible. They had multiple high end picks in a row solely based off of draft position. Regardless Muk was always a large framed solid skating project that projected really well into a top 4 role as his skills refined. I guess you could say the same about Pettersson, i'm just not sure you could say the same about Bruscewitz. Raty is up for discussion I could see him being inbetween the two.

Moreover, I'm not sold on a guy that was picked 76th being shot up due to offensive production on the backend when everyone knew he was capable of that. Heck Dragicevic had a comparable year in his draft year and was pushed back until pick 57.</div></div>

Mukhamdullin is definitely more similar to D-Petey in terms of projectability than Brustewicz. Brustewicz is still an equal tier prospect IMO but definitely a completely different style of player.

Age is still a factor even with the high salary on the extension. The devils are getting what should be more prime years out of Meier through his mid to late 20's where as Buch you are getting the latter years of his prime which also makes an extension a bigger risk factor. So the difference is (assuming an extension with Buch as well) Meier you have for his 27 to 34yr old seasons at 8.8mil and Buch on extension (and I'll include next season on the current deal) is his 29-37ish year old seasons at 8-9mil (assuming that is the extension price).

I really like Buch and think he would be a great fit in Van but largely due to the age discrepancy I don't think he is quite on par with Meier as an acquisition cost. If the blues move him I still expect them to get a very strong return though. Probably something between the Horvat trade price (which would essentially be Kuz + Bruz/D-Petey/Raty + 1st) and the Meier trade price.