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AC14

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23 déc. 2022
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM25 janv. à 18 h 11
Sujet: ALL IN FOR PARAYKO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mm1010</b></div><div>if you look at his buy out is would regularly be just over 2 Million
since he had high base salary on the front end and lower on the back in those years his cap hit is 3.7M for the last 3 years of his deal.... so 1.7M more expensive to buy him out</div></div>

Two things:

1. You're assuming the buyout happens at the end of this season? The math looks totally different than what you present: it's about $550k for two years, $2.2M for a season, $3.7M as you identify from 2027 through 2030, then drops to about $2.05M for six years. I get the point that you're making (more expensive versus conventional contract) but the uber-expensive buyouts that you're referring to were the back-diving deals like what Crosby, Ovechkin, Keith, and Weber were signed to many moons ago. <a href="/users/AC14" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AC14</a> sets up a scenario where it's likely to be only the +35 years that the buyout focuses on. I believe that sets up June 2028 as the timeframe to look at this buyout from.

2. The four years of Parayko's buyout in 2028 onward progress as:

2028-29: $3.3M
2029-30: $3.3M
2030-31: $1.6M
2031-32: $1.6M

As long as the buyout happens after 2026, there's no fluctuation to the cap hit Parayko's buyout holds.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 janv. à 17 h 56
Sujet: ALL IN FOR PARAYKO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Trading Parayko moves the Blues into a scorched earth rebuild status. Effectively wasting most of the careers of Thomas and Kyrou.

There is no effective way to replace what Parayko brings to the team unless it's via draft. And drafting and developing a top end shutdown guy isn't necessarily easy.

We mostly know that nobody is going to give us the pieces that we would need in order to move Parayko, that's why we largely say he's not being moved.

Armstrong's plan is to be competitive again in the 26-27 timeline. Parayko very much has quite a few good years of hockey left in him. It's often overlooked too that his contract was front loaded. If he does fall off a cliff towards the last couple of years 35+ years he can easily be bought out if necessary although I don't see how it will be if the cap keeps rising.</div></div>

Thank you laying it out. I only seek to understand where the Blues are coming from and this makes total sense now.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 janv. à 18 h 0
Sujet: Start the rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Can you tell me what the difference is between 26 with worse stats and the same amount of team control albeit at a higher rate? At the end of the day you're going to get both for around 6-8 years at 8-9 million.

And i would disagree with your assessment of Mukmahdullin. He was deeper in the Devils pool, but that's because the devils pool was incredible. They had multiple high end picks in a row solely based off of draft position. Regardless Muk was always a large framed solid skating project that projected really well into a top 4 role as his skills refined. I guess you could say the same about Pettersson, i'm just not sure you could say the same about Bruscewitz. Raty is up for discussion I could see him being inbetween the two.

Moreover, I'm not sold on a guy that was picked 76th being shot up due to offensive production on the backend when everyone knew he was capable of that. Heck Dragicevic had a comparable year in his draft year and was pushed back until pick 57.</div></div>

Mukhamdullin is definitely more similar to D-Petey in terms of projectability than Brustewicz. Brustewicz is still an equal tier prospect IMO but definitely a completely different style of player.

Age is still a factor even with the high salary on the extension. The devils are getting what should be more prime years out of Meier through his mid to late 20's where as Buch you are getting the latter years of his prime which also makes an extension a bigger risk factor. So the difference is (assuming an extension with Buch as well) Meier you have for his 27 to 34yr old seasons at 8.8mil and Buch on extension (and I'll include next season on the current deal) is his 29-37ish year old seasons at 8-9mil (assuming that is the extension price).

I really like Buch and think he would be a great fit in Van but largely due to the age discrepancy I don't think he is quite on par with Meier as an acquisition cost. If the blues move him I still expect them to get a very strong return though. Probably something between the Horvat trade price (which would essentially be Kuz + Bruz/D-Petey/Raty + 1st) and the Meier trade price.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 janv. à 23 h 6
Sujet: more fair offer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>We could benefit to add some secondary scoring. But I agree. Well most likely take a flyer on someone waived if we move guys out. I wouldn’t hate Snuggy coming up after the NCAA season for a few games just to see how he adjusts</div></div>

First things first, we need to offload and replace at least one top 4 LD. Until that happens, we're spinning wheels. If it does happen, I could totally see Army going after someone like Konecny who fits around RobTom's age, plays a Blues style and is in a situation where he'll possibly be UFA trade bait. The thing is, if we're splurging for a forward for now, I'd kinda rather it be a 2C so we can move Schenn back to the wing and still give our C prospects time to marinate. Of course, that's a harder nut to crack.
Forum: Armchair-GM30 déc. 2023 à 17 h 8
Sujet: Kevin Hayes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mergus80</b></div><div>1. MacFarland was at the Blue the Star game on Wednesday, Dec. 27th (according to your best pal Frank)
2. Stars aren’t in a position to sell, so he’s probably looking at the Blue.
3. Colorado is known to be in the market for a 2nd line center as Ryan Johansen isn’t working.
4. St. Louis probably isn’t trading Robert Thomas who’s in year five be of an eight year extension, or Brayden Schenn who was named captain over the summer.
5. Colorado has previous ties to Kevin Hayes, the only other center in St. Louis’s top nine.

Let me know if you need a picture book instead.

Again - I’m not advocating that this would be a good trade for the avalanche. Simply laying out what was reported by a credible writer.</div></div>

You're so angry, its funny. I would have guessed he's your best pal for the way you're offended by my opinion of his work. It's cool to fanboy..
1. GM's scout other teams often, he could just like hockey, or he could be checking in on two teams in his division. The Avs and Stars have made recent trades.
2. GM's make moves to improve their team, not every move is a selling.
3. 2nd line center isn't the only position they're looking to improve. Neither team has a 2c available.
4. Avs couldn't afford one or justify the other.
5. Previous, sure. Never argued that.

I wonder if the blues would be willing to use a retention slot for 3 years when the documented cost is a 6th.

A picture book would offer more in-depth writing than Frank. I appreciate the offer
Forum: Armchair-GM24 déc. 2023 à 17 h 8
Sujet: Defence Upgrade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Are you aware of who and what Nick Leddy is? Let’s then ask, what about Marco Scandella? How about Tyler Tucker? Maybe Niko Mikkola?

Then let’s add the defensive stalwarts of Brayden Schenn? Kevin Hayes maybe?

Quantifying defense individually is nonsense. All of the top players on most quantified defensive setups are generally on the same team or at least very close to their individual partners.

I’m not advocating the Leafs should take Parayko. I’m advocating that he’s a heck of a lot better than most people who lean on charts versus seeing individual impact give him credit for.

Will his contract be rough towards the last year or two of his deal? Sure. But in the meantime if we aren’t moving the rest of the group that is ensuring he has to be caved in there’s no reason to worry about it at this point in time. We are a 1 line team, with one good defenseman and two pretty solid goalies with a bunch of spare parts that don’t fit.

I’m not saying he’s Cale Makar, but not one of the best 60 defensemen in the league? You can probably make a list of 30-40 that I’d at least entertain.</div></div>


But no no no, we're supposed to take a circular subjective formula of another subjective formula based entirely on a subjective stat, with the player sight unseen! That's the true gospel! Only then can you understand that Timothy Liljegren is damn near an all-star while Parayko is one of the worst players in the league! It's unassailable! :tearsofjoy
Forum: Armchair-GM24 déc. 2023 à 17 h 22
Sujet: Defence Upgrade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>I’m just confused how all of the hockey geniuses with rinks 2 blocks from their house don’t understand that every defensive opportunity is not 1 on 1. Measuring a defenseman used in an extreme shutdown role with partners who have never done it before and forwards who lack defensive responsibility for the large majority of the group versus the field is not similar. You can move the goal posts for every scenario but it’s still the same. Absolutely nobody in the NHL is put through the usage Parayko and Leddy have the last two seasons. Do I expect his underlying stats to be good? No, he’s on the far extreme of what the baseline is.</div></div>

Well, we're supposed to defer to their inherently superior hockey knowledge, of course!

But yeah, the usage Parayko gets is downright sadistic. Now we send him out there half the time facing top lines along with the Blues 3rd and 4th lines. And he has been among the top few skaters on the ice in nearly every game this season.

But so what, right? Coz Dom, Mr. Subjective himself, who <em>tooootally </em>never thumbs the scale (wink wink), said snide stuff about a player he never watches. I'm not sure he could pick Parayko from a police line-up. But he's the authority. Coz Toronto osmosis.

AND if you do not defer to these blind authorities, you are a Toronto "hater" then. Because fake victimhood is a debate TKO. Or something.