14 mai 2017
Maple Leafs de Toronto
Deuxième équipe favorite
Avalanche du Colorado
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Hearing people say that Holl will be traded. The status of Muzzin - and if he recovers fully from the last string of injury - is unclear. Lyubushkin is gone.
Our D core is weaker than ever, in my opinion.
Holl has become the player people (and a journalist) complain about, even though he plays well. 2M for a competent righty will be difficult to replace. The only rationale for a trade is that the unjustified bad press will affect his morale. We are almost sure to lose this trade.
If Muzzin can't return to his past glory, we have no one to replace him. Not clear Sandin is ready to play 22 minutes this season. Even if he is, though, he wouldn't take the defensive responsibilities Muzzin was taking.
The gamble will be if Liljegren can move up to the top 4 this year. If so, you can try:
Rielly - Brodie
Giordano - Liljegren
Sandin - (Jordie Benn?)
Your two PK pairs become something like Gio-Lily and Brodie-Benn. That's taking full advantange of having Gio at a discount top 4 for the entire year.
In short, with Muzzin not being able to continue as he was before, we will have moved from a decent D-core last year to a below average D-core. It's bad for us.
And in that scenario, Dubas would still need to find a replacement for Holl, someone to play with Sandin. It will be difficult to find a player of the same calibre as Holl for the same price or below.
In all scenarios, the Leafs are missing a top pairing RHD, big time.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LaffsFan</b></div><div>In 2021, all these players were the second, third, fourth, and fifth most traded players for Armchair-GMs. Every single person doing an armchair-gm for the leafs trade one of these players to clear cap space, so they can do a huge trade. Except, everytime you do so, someone in the comments either says, "we don't want this guy," or "no way we're paying X-round pick for this player." That being said, what is the actual value for these players? As for Ritchie, what do we have to give up to get rid of him?
Kerfoot - late to mid second-round pick
Holl - early to mid third-round pick
Dermott - a fourth round pick
Engvall - a seventh round pick
Ritchie - a third plus Ritchie for future considerations</div></div>
I think people doing AGMs often get the value of players completely wrong, on either side. For instance, Kerfoot and Holl are valuable to the team and should be traded for roster players if anything, not treated as "cap dumps." Kerfoot is a speedy 0.50 PPG player who is very reliable on many aspects of the game. Many stats-oriented team would take him. AGMs that dump both these players for picks make no sense. We should try to keep both, or package them in a trade for roster players.
The value for Dermott and Engvall you mentioned is probably right. At this point, though, I'd keep Dermott as insurance for the playoffs.
Ritchie was a weird signing. But given the contract/age/career, there is no justification for giving a pick to trade him. If the Leafs wanted to let him go, Dubas can wait for a team who requests him and swap him for a prospect or future considerations. There will be some teams looking to add robustness, and his contract is not a burden at all. No need to throw a pick.
Oh, absolutely. My target for the trade deadline (before that, in fact) would be a dman.
Bogosian played like a top-4 guy for us last year, and that made a big difference. Muzzin-Holl have too much responsibility on this team. Holl seems overwhelmed right now. And Muzzin should be spared during the season because we need him healthy in the postseason - that's right, I would sit him 10 games at least, to make sure he is 100% in the playoffs. We're missing someone big time.
I was hoping for an Ekholm derby but this won't happen. If Anaheim had been bad this year, I'd say target Manson and let Holl patrol the third pairing. Or aim for a seasoned vet like the Isles did when they acquired Andy Greene. There are options.
People complained about Dubas in the off-season, but he did a phenomenal job dealing with the cap constraints. Bunting is a fantastic replacement for Hyman; sorry Hyman lovers, but this was a steal. Kampf could become our Radek Faksa, a legit 3rd line centre for years. Kase is worth at least three times his AAV.
Now, let's hope Dubas can do the same with a d-man. If he can, we're saved.
Good effort putting all this argument together.
I don't dispute that Marner is the highly talented winger you describe. Most people don't. But I still think it's a bad signing. And I'm not saying this with the benefit of hindsight: I was saying the exact same thing before the contract was signed and the pandemic started! Many reasons.
- If the AAV price was about 11M during negotiations, higher than any winger in the league, management had to bridge. That's what most Canadian GMs did, rightly so. The reasoning is that even after the bridge and without COVID, the AAV for wingers would have increased to the level his agent was asking for, at best. So, you gain cap space for 3-4 years.
- Psychologically, it's not desirable for a young player not named McDavid to become the highest paid player at his position (nobody is at McDavid's level). Too much pressure. I said that before: exceeding expectations always feels better, more motivating. Maybe the blame is other people's greed. But if Marner had a 9M AAV right now, nobody would have a negative thing to say about him. It would feel great for him.
The last playoffs are a good example. Keefe played him 25 minutes a game. It's like he was saying: you wanted that contract, now deliver. The reality is, however, this level of ice time is well beyond optimal.
In short: you can spoil the development of young players by raising the bar too high, too soon. Mitch throwing the puck in the stands is not him failing the fans. It's the people around him who failed him in his development, from his agent to the GM.
- You mentioned the PK several times. It's great. I like defensively reliable players, too. But to be frank, Marner should not play on the PK in the first place. Other players can do it, and fill that role with the same efficiency, if not more. Being a reliable defender at even strength is more than sufficient for Marner. Unless you change the entire system of the team, and become like Boston. But the Leafs aren't Boston. With regards to special teams, his focus should be the PP.
- Rantanen, Kucherov are comparables. Rantanen doesn't fill the same defensive role, but he has physicality and a better goal scoring touch. That's worth something. Kucherov is at another level entirely: his play under pressure and intense coverage is unparalleled. The way Tampa supported his development was exemplary. They went step by step, and of course, he was bridged. In fact, both players are better managed, because they have realistic expectations. And their cap hit is about just right.
With all that said, I like your attitude. I'm tired of cap discussions anyway, especially after the fact, since we can't change that anymore. So it may be better to see the glass half full.
My wishes for the next season were that:
1. the Leafs manage to design a good shutdown 3rd line, one that the coach will trust in the playoffs.
2. Bogosian be re-signed or someone found to replace him.
3. Keefe avoids playing Matthews/Marner 25 minutes a game, and maybe removes Marner from the PK altogether.
What I got so far:
1. My favourite acquisition is Kampf. I overlooked that player, and it seems like a legit Moneypuck move. Played tough minutes in Chicago, with DZ faceoffs, turning in excellent defensive stats on an average team. Him and Mikheyev (and maybe Kerfoot) could be the basis for an excellent 3rd line, like Tampa's Gourde line. So, I'm rather satisfied, though I wouldn't mind an additional PK specialist/defensive forward.
2. Bogosian leaving for a mega-contract in Tampa is a big issue, imo. I don't see the replacement for what he brought last season. Our top 4 is good, but needs to be used wisely. Then there are injuries. And who plays on the PK aside from Muzzin-Holl? I don't hear that a lot, but my move right now would be to trade a contract (e.g. Kerfoot) for a good defenseman. Defense wins championships.
3. Point 3 is entirely up to the coach. Hard match a checking line against opponents at home. Break up Matthews and Marner if they are cold. Play Nylander more if he's hot.
Unlike most people on social media, I'm not too worried about the top 6. Any player would score 40+ points with Matthews and Marner. I like Ritchie there, to protect the other two. Ritchie, Bunting, Kerfoot, Robertson, Simmonds... Kase. There's a lot of options.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>I have to start by saying I agree with Zach the person who posted this forum. At the end of the day hockey is a game and we all have to go home to our loved ones once the game is over.
This incident was scary enough to watch for fans it had to be even harder for JT's family, my thoughts are with them.
I hope he makes a full recovery as quick as possible and can get back to playing the game at his highest potential.
The injury happened so early in the game I would have understood if the NHL decided to postpone the rest of the game.
It was difficult to watch as a spectator but whether you are a player on the Habs or especially if you're on TML and that's your captain it had to be hard to play after.
That's why I think the fight was appropriate. To get the minds of the players off the injury and back to the game as much as possible.
Props to Perry for answering the bell for being in the wrong place at the wrong time and props to Foligno for standing up for his teammate.
That said, these players worked hard all year and sacrificed even more than usual with special covid protocols to get a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.
Perhaps you'd have more of an argument to cancel the series if Perry had malicious intent or if it was fatal but this was a pure accident.
Even logistically it wouldn't make sense. Who would the winner of EDM/WPG play?
You're right hockey is a risky sport. Sharp blades, big hits, fights, hard ice. There have been many nasty injuries. Some career ending unfortunately.
However I think it's worth it and I don't think one accident should determine how safe the sport is.
I hope you don't chalk up this year as an automatic loss of a year and maybe decide to watch some more games.
I know JT being out hurts the Leaf's chances at the cup significantly because he's such a great player but it's not over yet.
I really took my time to write this and re-read it because I hope none if it comes off as rude. I just have a difference in opinion on a few things.
At the end of the day we all wish this didn't happen but it did. So I'll say it again I hope he makes a full recovery as quick as possible and can get back to playing the game at his highest potential.
Thanks for your thoughtful post. I certainly understand the points you are making.
Yes, I believe the Perry hit was an accident.
However, the decision from Dom Ducharme to tell his players to hit as much as they can was not an accident. As some point, those in power have to take responsibility for their actions. It's dumb hockey, if you want my opinion, especially if that's the whole foundation of your game strategy. (I think the Habs had decent chances in the series by just playing the game - they have skilled young players a well balanced team.)
And it's especially bad for the league. The reality is, you have kids watching hockey games. They see players like John Tavares and have them as role models, they want to be like them. It's a terrible outcome to have a player leave on a stretcher, any way you look at it.
I'm not a crazy fan. I would say the same thing if it happened to Crosby, Ovi or someone else. I wouldn't care more than 10 minutes after a loss if the Habs beat the Leafs in normal circumstances.
That said, I appreciate your response.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Trickster</b></div><div>I think it has to be Andersen.
Once you go to Campbell, you cant undo that move.
But if Andersen is not good you can say here you go kid, show us what you got.
A healthy Andersen should be > Campbell</div></div>
You saying that because of the Winnipeg loss?
Campbell would be my choice, anyway.
As for tonight, none of the Jets' first two goals are on Campbell. Old habits from last season are always at risk of creeping up. The first goal had the entire Leafs squad frozen, not recognizing the threat of three Jets fore-checkers rushing on two Ds, with everyone cheating for a chance off the rush. You can't play like that when you have the lead.
The second goal is an unprovoked mistake by Rielly. Pinching with a 2-1 lead when he should have seen that all three forwards were deep, unable to cover him, with the Jets' top players on the ice. Bad situational awareness.
The third goal is an elite-level one-timer. Not much to say.
That's the difficulty with the Leafs. They have their mind on offense, and it's a mental trap. They lead 2-1, then think 'we can push for 3-1' instead of playing it smart. And it's last year's Columbus series all over again. Leafs won't win in the playoffs if they play like that, whether it's Andersen or Campbell. If they get their defensive system back in shape, it'll work either way.
TL;DR Tonight no Campbell fault.