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Dubois Trade Instead of Buyout

Créé par: Shanesaw9
Équipe: 2024-25 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 4 mai 2024
Publié: 4 mai 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
There is lots of speculation right now that LA may cut ties with Dubois via a buyout before he turns 26 in which case the buyout would only cost 1/3 instead of 2/3. This might be LA's only opportunity to get out of this contract.

If LA is seriously considering this I propose another solution: Trade Dubois at 1/3 retained and save yourself ~$8M of dead cap space (mostly over the last 7 years of the 14 year buyout penalty). I think MTL would take the chance on Dubois at 2/3. They would likely want to adding Price's LTIR contract to this deal to offset the signing bonus and to get out of bonus overages from their ELC players (something LA wouldn't really have to deal with).

Alternatively, MTL could wait to see if LA actually buys him out and they could just sign him to a one year "prove it" deal... but personally I'd bet on Dubois living up to $5.667M × 7 years. That could be a steal in 3-4 years for MTL.

Thoughts?

The lineup below is not a final roster just projected after this trade.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
21 500 000 $
21 500 000 $
Transactions
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc (2 833 333 $ retained)
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
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2024
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2025
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2026
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2387 700 000 $76 752 917 $1 022 500 $4 670 000 $10 947 083 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 7
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 6
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
RFA - 1
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2 900 000 $2 900 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 3
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5 666 667 $5 666 667 $
C
NMC
UFA - 7
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3 362 500 $3 362 500 $
C, AD
RFA - 2
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
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1 700 000 $1 700 000 $
C
UFA - 1
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
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1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
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4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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812 500 $812 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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3 150 000 $3 150 000 $
G
UFA - 3
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1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
DG/DD
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
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890 000 $890 000 $
G
RFA - 1
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance750 000 $$750K)
DG
RFA - 2
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766 667 $766 667 $
DD
UFA - 1
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1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
DD
RFA

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4 mai à 11 h 25
#1
Prime Primeau
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No way habs take that much money for a mid third liner
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4 mai à 11 h 32
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I dont think the Habs are interested in moving Price's contract, especially if they make a trade like this. If they make a play for PLD it is because they plan on making a playoff push next year or the year after and the ability to exceed the cap by 10.5 mil will make that much easier. I think if they do make a push for PLD it will require Dvorak going the other way for cap purposes and a few smaller peices like maybe Primeau + Harris + 2nd (IDK if retention would be added or not but even if its not at that price its not really an issue if PLD bounces back to his early Columbus form)
4 mai à 11 h 33
#3
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I'm not a Kings fan at all, but suspect they aren't moving PLD. He's only 25 and will settle in.
4 mai à 11 h 34
#4
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Quoting: GuyGuyGuy
No way habs take that much money for a mid third liner


So a guy that has averaged 54 pts / season in his career and positive xGF% in top 6 roles is a mid third liner now?

We habs fans are insufferable sometimes.

Edit: and you do realize that the contract will only getter better with age as the cap increases right? 7 year term is a bonus.
4 mai à 11 h 36
#5
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Quoting: Campabee
I dont think the Habs are interested in moving Price's contract, especially if they make a trade like this. If they make a play for PLD it is because they plan on making a playoff push next year or the year after and the ability to exceed the cap by 10.5 mil will make that much easier. I think if they do make a push for PLD it will require Dvorak going the other way for cap purposes and a few smaller peices like maybe Primeau + Harris + 2nd (IDK if retention would be added or not but even if its not at that price its not really an issue if PLD bounces back to his early Columbus form)


Dude this is just wrong. Price's contract is a burden not a bonus. You need to research LTIR...
4 mai à 11 h 42
#6
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Dude this is just wrong. Price's contract is a burden not a bonus. You need to research LTIR...


You are only looking at the negatives, how many cup champs over the past 5 years have been over the cap limit by way of LTIR contracts? 3 of the last 5 for sure, I just dont remember if the Avs or Blues were over or not.
4 mai à 11 h 53
#7
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
So a guy that has averaged 54 pts / season in his career and positive xGF% in top 6 roles is a mid third liner now?

We habs fans are insufferable sometimes.

Edit: and you do realize that the contract will only getter better with age as the cap increases right? 7 year term is a bonus.


He average 55 pts playing with Ehlers, Connor and Scheiffle. When he got to a team with less offensive talent, he scored 30 pts. He is a mid third liner and that is very generous
4 mai à 11 h 55
#8
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Modifié 4 mai à 12 h 17
Quoting: Campabee
You are only looking at the negatives, how many cup champs over the past 5 years have been over the cap limit by way of LTIR contracts? 3 of the last 5 for sure, I just dont remember if the Avs or Blues were over or not.


There are no positives, the purpose of LTIR is allow teams to temporarily exceed the cap (by adding the cap hit to salary cap) to give them injury relief.

A team that is in LTIR:
- Cannot accumulate any cap space over the course of the season (makes it harder to make trades at the deadline).
- Is penalized on next years cap due to bonus overages. Notice how MTL was penalized $1M this year. This will only get worse with as MTL adds more ELC's and they improve. The roster above has $4.6M in potential bonuses, if they still have Price that is $4.6M in potential cap penalties for 2025-26.

There is clear difference between someone like Price (who will never play again) being on LTIR compared to someone like Stone or Kucherov who is magically healthy for game 1 of the playoffs. That is how contenders are using it to their advantage, by activating them once the playoffs start. That isn't a factor with Price. The other way LTIR is used is to dump contracts... examples:

- TB trades Johnson for Seabrook to dump Johnson's cap hit and put Seabrook on LTIR.
- VGK trades Dadanov for Weber to dump Dadanov's cap hit and put Weber on LTIR.

It isn't advantageous for them to acquire Seabrook or Weber for LTIR, but it is a better alternative for them to dump Johnson and Dadanov. As they are contenders they will already be spending to the cap anyways so bonus and accumulating cap space are irrelevant, they would have the same penalties anyways.

There is no advantage to Price's contract whatsoever. It 100% hurts MTL and there is absolutely no benefit of it.
4 mai à 11 h 58
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Quoting: GuyGuyGuy
He average 55 pts playing with Ehlers, Connor and Scheiffle. When he got to a team with less offensive talent, he scored 30 pts. He is a mid third liner and that is very generous


No he didn't, he just finished a career year with WPG of 63 pts in 73 games... a pace of 70 pts literally just a year ago. He averaged 60 pts / 82 games throughout his time with WPG. Not bad for a mid third liner eh
4 mai à 12 h 14
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To think the Kings would buy out a guy they just signed long term after 1 season is ABSURD. Same goes for trading him with 7 years of retention, simply ABSURD.
4 mai à 12 h 15
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
There are no positives, the purpose of LTIR is allow teams to temporarily exceed the cap (by adding the cap hit to salary cap) to give them injury relief.

A team that is in LTIR:
- Cannot accumulate any cap space over the course of the season (makes it harder to make trades at the deadline).
- Is penalized on next years cap due to bonus overages. Notice how MTL was penalized $1M this year. This will only get worse with as MTL adds more ELC's and they improve. The roster above has $4.6M in potential bonuses, if they still have Price that is $4.6M in potential cap penalties for 2025-26.

There is clear difference between someone like Price (who will never play again) being on LTIR compared to someone like Stone or Kucherov who is magically healthy for game 1 of the playoffs. That is how contenders are using it to their advantage, by activating them once the playoffs start. That isn't a factor with Price. The other way LTIR is used is to dump contracts... examples:

- TB trades Johnson for Seabrook to dump Johnson's cap hit and put Seabrook on LTIR.
- VGK trades Dadanov for Weber to dump Dadanov's cap hit and put Weber on LTIR.

It isn't advantageous for them to acquire Seabrook or Weber for LTIR... it is advantageous for them to dump Johnson and Dadanov.

There is no advantage to Price's contract whatsoever. It 100% hurts MTL and there is absolutely no benefit of it.


1. Price never ruled out playing post season games, his exact words were his body can't take the rigors of a full NHL season, I am pretty sure the competitor in him will try to play if the Habs make the post season and he is still part of the team.

2. The Sanley Cup is the only positive a team needs to use LTIR to their advantage, if not then they probalby should go find another sports team to manage
4 mai à 12 h 18
#12
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Quoting: Campabee
1. Price never ruled out playing post season games, his exact words were his body can't take the rigors of a full NHL season, I am pretty sure the competitor in him will try to play if the Habs make the post season and he is still part of the team.

2. The Sanley Cup is the only positive a team needs to use LTIR to their advantage, if not then they probalby should go find another sports team to manage


I would be shocked if Carey Price came back to play in the playoffs with Montreal when he hasn't practiced or skated with the team in 3 years. He's done man, stop being obtuse.
4 mai à 12 h 21
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Quoting: Cornbreadnhl
To think the Kings would buy out a guy they just signed long term after 1 season is ABSURD. Same goes for trading him with 7 years of retention, simply ABSURD.


They have a big decision to make before Dubois turns 26 on June 24th. If he isn't bought out before then we know LA is stuck with him for better or worse.

The sunk cost fallacy is our tendency to continue with something we've invested money, effort, or time into—even if the current costs outweigh the benefits.
4 mai à 12 h 34
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
They have a big decision to make before Dubois turns 26 on June 24th. If he isn't bought out before then we know LA is stuck with him for better or worse.

The sunk cost fallacy is our tendency to continue with something we've invested money, effort, or time into—even if the current costs outweigh the benefits.


Don't you think a team may consider that it's his first year with a new team and he had an off year? Or was his play for the Jets an illusion? No GM on earth is going to retain 7 years on a young talented player after 1 year. I know the Habs wanted him before we went to LA, but this trade idea is fantasy.
4 mai à 12 h 53
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
I would be shocked if Carey Price came back to play in the playoffs with Montreal when he hasn't practiced or skated with the team in 3 years. He's done man, stop being obtuse.


I am not being obtuse, I am just saying that in Carey's own words he has always maintained that at some point he may be able to return in some capacity. Does that mean he will, no but it also doesn’t mean he won't try, especially if the team is in a position to make another serious run at a cup before his contract runs out or he officially retires (whichever comes first).

Also do you seriously think that a 1 mil cap overage penalty is that much of a hindrance to the thrid richest team in the league who made over 265 million in last season and has a net value of 2.3 billion? Thats like a $1.50 and a Slim Jim to them!
4 mai à 14 h 50
#16
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
No he didn't, he just finished a career year with WPG of 63 pts in 73 games... a pace of 70 pts literally just a year ago. He averaged 60 pts / 82 games throughout his time with WPG. Not bad for a mid third liner eh

Playing with Connor and Ehlers, wich proves my point. Without good linemates, he is awful and not even worth 4m
4 mai à 17 h 2
#17
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Quoting: Campabee
I am not being obtuse, I am just saying that in Carey's own words he has always maintained that at some point he may be able to return in some capacity. Does that mean he will, no but it also doesn’t mean he won't try, especially if the team is in a position to make another serious run at a cup before his contract runs out or he officially retires (whichever comes first).

Also do you seriously think that a 1 mil cap overage penalty is that much of a hindrance to the thrid richest team in the league who made over 265 million in last season and has a net value of 2.3 billion? Thats like a $1.50 and a Slim Jim to them!


Nothing to do with cost, everything to do with cap hit. In 1 or 2 years when this team might be competitive they will want to maximize there cap. Not be penalized for bonus overages.

Price is not playing again, arguing that is pointless
4 mai à 17 h 17
#18
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Nothing to do with cost, everything to do with cap hit. In 1 or 2 years when this team might be competitive they will want to maximize there cap. Not be penalized for bonus overages.

Price is not playing again, arguing that is pointless


In 2 years time (2025-26) Price's contract ends, so again not a hindrance
4 mai à 18 h 40
#19
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Quoting: Campabee
I dont think the Habs are interested in moving Price's contract, especially if they make a trade like this. If they make a play for PLD it is because they plan on making a playoff push next year or the year after and the ability to exceed the cap by 10.5 mil will make that much easier. I think if they do make a push for PLD it will require Dvorak going the other way for cap purposes and a few smaller peices like maybe Primeau + Harris + 2nd (IDK if retention would be added or not but even if its not at that price its not really an issue if PLD bounces back to his early Columbus form)


That's not how LTIR works.
4 mai à 18 h 42
#20
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I'd think if PLD was available sub 6 million a team like boston would be willing to pay for him.

Hertl comp would be in play at that point
5 mai à 1 h 50
#21
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Quoting: Campabee
In 2 years time (2025-26) Price's contract ends, so again not a hindrance


Wrong again, as the bonus overages are a penalty in the following season... you're still being obtuse just for the sake of it. Just admit it would be favorable to trade that contract.
5 mai à 6 h 25
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Quoting: Shanesaw9
Wrong again, as the bonus overages are a penalty in the following season... you're still being obtuse just for the sake of it. Just admit it would be favorable to trade that contract.


I know when overage penalties are applied, I said the contract ends in 2 years and as we already determined a 1 mil overage penalty isn’t a hindrance for the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league. There is more than one way to look at LTIR contracts (as with everything else in the world) I choose to focus on the positives, you can focus on the negatives if you like but that is a dark way to live my friends
5 mai à 10 h 26
#23
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Modifié 5 mai à 10 h 32
Quoting: Campabee
I know when overage penalties are applied, I said the contract ends in 2 years and as we already determined a 1 mil overage penalty isn’t a hindrance for the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league. There is more than one way to look at LTIR contracts (as with everything else in the world) I choose to focus on the positives, you can focus on the negatives if you like but that is a dark way to live my friends


Again, what positives? The only positive you've listed is you somehow believe if MTL makes the playoffs that Price is going to return when he hasn't played for 3 years now...

The other misinformed positive you listed was that it allows MTL to exceed the cap by $10.5M... let's do the math on that one... if you can exceed the cap by $10.5M and Price's cap hit is $10.5M, there's no benefit at all to that now is there?

You still refuse to acknowledge that a $1M bonus overage is a hindrance this year (even though it is a small hindrance). The fact that in 2025-26 MTL is facing up to $4.6M in bonus overages is lost on you, and then you literally said that it doesn't matter in 2 years because again you aren't keeping up to the fact that bonus overages penalties are applied the following season...

The funniest thing is you literally posted a Dubois trade a few days ago where you took Dubois at full cap hit! $8.5M × 7 and you traded actual assets for him in Newhook and a 2nd round pick.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/829111?post_id=4866409

Now a few days later I make a post getting Dubois for free at $5.667M × 7 years while dumping Price and getting out of LTIR and you're trying to argue MTL would rather keep Price. At this point you have to be trolling... if you haven't got it yet you never will.

Edit: Actually even on this post you claimed it would be better for MTL to trade Dvorak, Primeau, and a 2nd round pick than to trade Price's LTIR contract! The fact that you still haven't changed your stance when I've tried going through lengths to help you understand LTIR says it all. You're either lost or trolling.
5 mai à 10 h 44
#24
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I doubt Robitaille and Blake are going to admit failure after one year of Dubois, as NHL execs have alot of pride (even it hurts them). However, if ownership thinks Dubois is a bust then Blake is fired before his 1pm Monday press conference.
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