So basically, "if you are going to trade with us, you have to trade for our UFA rights and/or our garbage"

this is a post saying who the islanders could move. Let me make it simple for you:

Tier 1: Three full NTCs and one young player who was top 4 is Norris voting for 60 games through the season and brought 70 points to our depleted defense

Tier 2: 6/8 players have NTCs and the other two are our top 2 prospects. Nelson is a stud and Jefferies is near NHL-ready

Tier 3: Players with small value that could be traded in smaller moves but I don't see happening because the value they'd return is unlikely to be worth it

Tier 4: I think will be shopped then traded if there is a suitor

Tier 5: I think is gone.

Which specific player do you disagree with her? Lamoriello would never move Sorokin before his NTC kicked in. It would be ridiculous and also go against everything he has done his entire career

Then look at tier two, it is ALL NTCs. If any of these players would waive then that would change things but I don't see it.

Where do you disagree? Im aware the Islanders have crappy trade assets lol. I could see us moving a prospect not named Nelson or Jefferies and our first rounder in a trade, but we don't have much value elsewhere-- I know!

how much are the islanders willing to retain on Lee?

I think one of the goalie almost have to be gone...

The Islanders need the extra help out front and if an 8.5 million dollar Sorokin can't handle the workload an 8.5 mill goalie should be able to handle, then he should be gone instead of Varlamov

I also see Romanov and Cizikas being shopped, each have value, but got the feeling Lou wants to know how much

Finally, I think all prospect are on the table... Lou knows the Islanders aren't good enough compared to the Hurricanes of the world so they need to improve, what better way than via trade?

So let's make a deal:

Pageau ($5M × 2 years - 31 years old)
82GP, 11G, 22A, 33P, 55.4 FO%
EV: 12:29, 44.16 GF%, 46.54 xGF%
PP: 1:31, 1.0 P/60
PK: 1:54, 7.94 GA/60, 8.40 xGA/60

Evans ($1.7M × 1 year - 27 years old)
82GP, 7G, 21A, 28P, 52.2 FO%
EV: 12:42, 44.74 GF%, 44.07 xGF%
PP: n/a
PK: 3:10, 9.32 GA/60, 10.74 xGA/60

You get a cheaper and younger replacement for Pageau (frees up $3.3M to invest elsewhere).

We get a local player and some sort of compensation for the contract.

I’d be fine with a trade like that but what would the trade compensation be?

Honestly I'm not sure, Pageau and Evans are essentially equal players more or less so it's basically like a pure cap dump of $3.3M × 2 years (technically $3.3M plus $5M since Evans only has one year left).

So are there any comparables of cap dumps in that range? I'd have to assume you'd be looking to get at least a 2nd round pick and go from there.

Edit: Here's a reference that analyzes draft pick value and then compared that to the history of cap dumps and salary retention trades to develop a chart for valuing cap space vs draft picks.

https://puckpedia.com/PerriCapRelief

For $5M in cap space, the compensation is 32nd overall. So for $3.3M × 2 years ($6.6M), you're looking at a 1st round pick. Now Pageau probably isn't a pure cap dump (he is viewed as such in this scenario since Evans is a direct replacement) but if the goal is to just purely dump Pageau with no replacement then it might cost less. I was interested in throwing in Jordan Harris sweetener who would probably be your 6th D next year because MTL needs to clear a spot on defense anyways... but basically MTL would need a late 1st or early 2nd to justify this trade.

Edit 2.0: If I read closer I'd see there is a calculator here... https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief

$3.3M × 2 years is an expected value of 27th overall.

I agree all prospects are on the table, but I cant see Jefferies or Nelson being shopped. Nelson is the exact type of player Lou loves and Jefferies is so close to making the NHL that moving on from his ELC for two seasons is hard to imagine

I want Varly gone but both goalies ill have NTCs next season. I just don't see it unfortunately.

If it were purely up to me, Varly, Pelech, Pulock, Palmieri, Lee, Pageau, Cizikas, Wahlstrom, Mayfield, Engvall are all gone. But sadly that isn't happening

Id make a move for sure.

Evans and Pageau are both in it, with no retention on Pageau. From there, id be willing to go a few ways. The first, and ideal option is to trade back. Do something like

18 OVR (NYI's 2024 1st), NYI 2025 3rd Round Pick and Pageau FOR Evans + 26OVR (WPG's 2024 1st to MTL)

or

Pageau + Wahlstrom + NYI 2025 3rd Round Pick for Evans + MTL 2025 7th Round Pick

or

Pageau + William Dufour for Evans + MTL 2027 5th Round Pick

So now that I've discovered this draft pick value calculator which includes a salary dump calculation as well I'm going to lean into that:

A fair deal would be Evans for Pageau and 27th overall. But the Islander's don't own 27th overall they have 18 and 50.

So I would propose MTL trades up to 18th overall... and the calculated cost to do so would be to trade 39th overall back. But MTL doesn't have that, they have 27th overall and 57th. The cost to trade up to 39th from 57th is to add 59th... so here is my proposal.

Jake Evans
Jordan Harris (Substitute for 59th overall)
2024 2nd Round Pick (Colorado - Proj. 57th)

For

J.G. Pageau
2024 1st Round Pick (18th Overall)

Edit... I screwed something up looking at the WPG pick scenario. Hang on.

Ok so option 2 is:

Jake Evans
WPG 2024 1st Round Pick (27th)

For

J.G. Pageau
NYI 2024 1st Round Pick (18th)
NYI 2024 2nd Round Pick (50th)

I think

Jake Evans
WPG 2024 1st Round Pick (27th)

For

J.G. Pageau
NYI 2024 1st Round Pick (18th)
NYI 2024 2nd Round Pick (50th)

is a fair deal. One note on Harris is that the Islanders have no need for him. I like him a lot but we have Pelech and Romanov plus Bolduc who is developing quite well. It seems like Mike Reilly will be brought back as a plateau option with Bolduc for a season so adding Harris with the current roster doesn't make too much sense, although I'm sure a bunch of teams out there would be interested in him

I like the deal you proposed though, and truthfully could see it happen if Lamoriello realises we need to shed money

I'm on board with this trade. It gives MTL more quality (18th overall vs 27th overall), and I don't think they really need the cap space for anything else over the next 2 years. Probably would depend on if they like someone on the board at that pick.

Understand regarding Harris, I overlooked Bolduc.

Fair, but still... Got a feeling Lou might go all in next year

Couldn't see that, it makes more sense why they have those 2 goalies now...

lou should go all in and I could see him moving some guys-- it would just be uncharacteristic of him as an Islander so far, but ya never know!