Quoting: CaseyFlyman
I personally think Pittsburgh will be a bottom-5 team in the league in 2026, but the CBJ is a guaranteed top-6 pick by nature of finishing 4th-last in the league this year. Even if I think Pittsburgh is last in the league in 2026, the only guarantee is that it's top-3. And I'm certainly not willing to bet a top-6 pick that Pittsburgh is a bottom feeder in two years when Crosby could still be there.
We're just looking at the value of the pick, but I really don't think they're as close as you presume. There's just too many variables that need to go against Pittsburgh to have them fall to where Columbus is right now. Could it be top-3? Sure. But odds are low that it ends up being as high in the draft as Columbus' right now, and the fact that you'd need to wait two years to get it means that it's not close in value.
This again depends where they pick. CBJ could end up picking 6th. This isn't really a strong draft and frankly I don't think the 6OA will be seeing the ice for at least 2 years. Or at least he shouldn't.
There are only like 2-3 guys in this draft I think can step in right away. So the "time" thing doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Like I said, it really depends on the draft in 26. If it's deep and you got a whole list of guys who can step in year one... then the time is nothing.
I is clearly a bet that the pick for CBJ is less this year than that of the pick for PIT in 26. There is no doubt on that. I'm only pointing out, that the 26 pick is worth way more than what was claimed.
If you think a 38 year old Crosby is going to drag an aging EK, Letang and Malkin kicking and screaming into not being a bottom 5 team, that's one opinion. As you stated you think they will be a bottom 5 team. I also believe they will be a bottom 5 team.
So if that's the case, what are we really comparing in value? Development time? If CBJ selects #1 this year, obviously that's true. If they select #6 this year, that's not as clear.
The same can be said for the PIT pick.
The real point of the argument here that I'm making is, given how weak this draft is. The 26 draft, could... I don't know that it is... but it could be stronger and give a better pick.
I would rather pick in 26 if I know a player of McDavid level is there, than pick this year with a player of Celebrini's level.
Not to knock Celebrini too hard but everyone has assessed he's leaning more on the talent level of a Lafreniere than a McDavid. He's ranked lower than Bedard who was lower than Hughes and so forth down the line....
This isn't a strong draft. I don't know the draft for 26 yet.... but if it's a much stronger draft, and you have the same belief that they are a bottom 5 team. Then you are looking at the value.
Now of course it's a gamble. It is. I'm not arguing that. But if we are starting from the premise that they are a bottom 5 team and I clearly am as that's my belief. Than that is really taken out of the equation.
There are a lot of factors here. CBJ picking 6th this year, is definitely less than a 26 picking 1st and vice versa.
The point is it's a bad assumption to think PIT doesn't have the assets and that the 26 isn't as valuable. No one knows this at this point yet. With a team set to crater it's a lot harder to assess than say a team like like TOR who isn't going to finish that low.