Doesn't get you Samberg lol

Hawks probably take Bastian for free

Replace Marino with Nemec and a 2nd with a 1st.

1 year of an 11 million dollar Marner isn't worth Nemec alone. Or Mercer

Marner is a superstar winger entering his prime. Any team serious enough to trade for him this summer will have an extension ready.

The 12+ mill extension that marner will ask for doesn't significantly improve his value.

Any Marner return if traded is going to significantly disappoint leafs fans (you'd be very lucky to get the package here). Which is why he'll likely just use his massive leverage to sign a massive contract above the market rate.

Marner has a full NMC:
Marner has an 11 mill contract:

Since marner has an NMC, that means in order for him to be traded he'd likely have to prefer said organization to toronto. In that case, what is to stop said organization from simply waiting until UFA and getting him for free.

Then that massive contract limits his value significantly.

Frankly, with the factor of his contract. 1 year, 11 million, full NMC, I wouldn't offer more than a single late 1st, but even then what team has the cap space to add a piece like Marner.

That's why I think the Leafs will just re-sign him in the 12-13 million range. With Tavares coming off the books and the cap going up they can afford it. They can move on from either Nylander or Marner a couple of years from now if they continue to lose in the playoffs.

They'll likely be stuck with Marner and Nylander the whole time. If there is more playoff failure, it will be incredibly difficult to move 12 million dollar deals for 30 year olds (at that point) with full NMCs.

Marner doesn't want to play elsewhere, but he will squeeze as much money as possible out of TO

They're still elite wingers, both are top 10 imo. But I think teams that overpay their wingers never win anything in the Spring. A Stanley Cup Team can have one winger making big money, but not two. The Leafs made their bed. They just have to hope Matthews puts the team on his back and they get Tim Thomas level of goaltending one of these playoffs.

Once you get to this point you have no choice but to pay them. Letting them walk to free agency or selling as rentals would be a disaster.

The problem is the RFA contracts they got (and Matthews as well)

6 years on Marner and Nylander, 5 years on Matthews. Straight to UFA. trade protections in the last year. And still like 30 mill to them.

Matthews AAV was fine, but at that AAV you should have been getting 8 years on a first time RFA.

Again, Nylander production was below the comps of Pasta and Forsberg. You’d have liked to get either 6 mill x 6 AAV or 8 years at 7.

And then Marner. There was no justifying this one. No wingers got paid like this, except free market Panarin. Heck even tho Rantanen was able to use the baseline of Marner’s contract to negotiate with, he still only got 9.5. Marner should have been 8x6 or 9x8. 11x6 was horrific negotiating on a 1st time RFA hometown boy.

All these great moves & then starting Samsonov? Marner is nice but Devils have solid F. Using $9M on Saros would be really fun!

The Hawks could definitely use Bastian’s size up front.

CHI might take Bastian, but we have other guys who are under contract, need new contracts, and/or are knocking on the NHL door. At 26 he likely doesn't factor into CHI's long term plans. I can't really see who he is taking a spot from either, I'd rather re-sign Raddysh, Anderson, and/or Entwistle. I also might rather re-up with Hardman and graduate him to the NHL next season in a bottom 6 role. Dach might be graduating. Nazar could make the roster out of camp. Bastian doesn't really help us to the cap floor in any meaningful way. And he pretty much is what he is at this point. There just aren't a lot of reasons to take him, imo. But it is certainly within the realm of possibility.