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The case to trade Matheson and Montembeau

Créé par: jonh514
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 5 févr. 2024
Publié: 5 févr. 2024
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I will start by saying I don't believe this will happen. HuGo knows the Habs still need to ice a somewhat competitive group to keep eyeballs glued to the team. But ...

The only two Habs other than Zuke, CC and Slaf who can bring back 1st round picks are Math & Monty, and the Habs could use 2 more 1st round picks (or prospects worth 1st round picks).

If we did trade them, we could reasonably expect to drop in the standings to the point where we could potentially draft one of Celebrini, Demidov, or Lindstrom, which we won't do short of winning the lottery this season.

Having 6 1sts over the next 2 years should allow us to trade up if there's a player we really want in the draft, like Iginla for example.

We are currently cycling NHL players in and out of Laval rather than cycling AHL players in and out of the NHL. This would allow us to at the minimum keep our NHL defenders in the NHL.

Both players are currently peaking in value. Neither one of them will ever be worth more on the trade market than they are right now. Selling high is an important part of a rebuild, is it not?

Embrace the tank!
Transactions
1.
MTL
  1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (NJD)
Détails additionnels:
It's a LOT for a goalie, but he's not a rental and the Devil's probably believe they are a playoff team with Hughes back in action.
2.
MTL
  1. Smith, Reilly
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2024 (PIT)
  3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2025 (PIT)
Détails additionnels:
Matheson goes back to Pittsburgh to help right the ship

Habs take back a useful player in Smith who is on an expiring deal next year and can either help the Habs, or be a trade target at the deadline.
3.
MTL
PIT
  1. Pezzetta, Michael
Détails additionnels:
Habs optionally throw in Pez (up to the Pens)
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2024
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2026
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2383 500 000 $74 987 916 $1 170 000 $4 252 500 $8 512 084 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 8
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 7
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
RFA - 2
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5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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C, AG
RFA - 4
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5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
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3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
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1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
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775 000 $775 000 $
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UFA - 2
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
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M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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775 000 $775 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 2
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775 000 $775 000 $
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Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 2
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
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1 925 000 $1 925 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
DG/DD
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828 333 $828 333 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
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890 000 $890 000 $
G
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867 500 $867 500 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
DG
RFA - 2
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance275 000 $$275K)
DD
RFA - 1
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766 667 $766 667 $
DD
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Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
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M-NTC
UFA - 2
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10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
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NMC
UFA - 3
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3 362 500 $3 362 500 $
C, AD
RFA - 3
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762 500 $762 500 $
DD
UFA - 1

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5 févr. à 9 h 54
#26
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
Because when I think offence, Kyle Clifford, Jake Muzzin, Nick Foligno, Mark Giodarno (version 38.5), Jake McCabe and Ryan O'Reilly come to mind


Maybe it's a perspective thing... Most of those would be offensive players on my Habs! tears of joy
5 févr. à 9 h 55
#27
Pens are better
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Quoting: jonh514
37 year old Fleury, wasn't it?


After he won the vezina, so understandable.
5 févr. à 9 h 58
#28
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Quoting: Imagine874859
After he won the vezina, so understandable.


I'm not saying he's Fleury either. There is an ebb and flow to all markets. Monty is affordable, he's a starter, and he's clutch.

Put the Devils in front of him, and he's a top 16 goalie in this league without a doubt. How many starting Goalies are available?
5 févr. à 10 h 0
#29
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Quoting: jonh514
I'm not saying he's Fleury either. There is an ebb and flow to all markets. Monty is affordable, he's a starter, and he's clutch.

Put the Devils in front of him, and he's a top 16 goalie in this league without a doubt. How many starting Goalies are available?


How many contending teams would he be starting on? Because I can only name 1 and that's NJ.
5 févr. à 10 h 0
#30
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Quoting: jonh514
1st and 2nd is more or less his value, do you dispute that?


Yes. Matheson is not worth a 1st, 2nd AND a top six winger. He's not worth a 1st or 2nd on his own either.
5 févr. à 10 h 2
#31
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
Yes. Matheson is not worth a 1st, 2nd AND a top six winger. He's not worth a 1st or 2nd on his own either.


Is Smith a top 6 winger. Playing with Malkin... I think almost any bottom 6 guy could manage 20 points.
5 févr. à 10 h 3
#32
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Modifié 5 févr. à 10 h 10
Quoting: Imagine874859
How many contending teams would he be starting on? Because I can only name 1 and that's NJ.


I think you just don't want him going to the Devils because you know if he does, that's the death knell for your wildcard hopes.
5 févr. à 10 h 11
#33
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I think you just don't want him going to the Devils because you know if he does, that's the death knell for your wildcard hopes.


Idc where he goes because either way I don't see this team making the playoffs and if we do we arent getting past the first round lol
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5 févr. à 10 h 12
#34
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Trading Matheson? Yes, I fully agree we should be at least entertaining this idea. Trading Monty? I disagree with, however if someone offered us a 1st for him it would be extremely difficult to say no.
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5 févr. à 10 h 15
#35
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Quoting: jonh514
Is Smith a top 6 winger. Playing with Malkin... I think almost any bottom 6 guy could manage 20 points.


If that were the case, the Pens would have been spending $1.5M on each of his wings through his entire career. If you don't know that Smith is a top six winger in the NHL then I'm not sure we can have a conversation.
5 févr. à 10 h 20
#36
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Quoting: jonh514
Maybe it's a perspective thing... Most of those would be offensive players on my Habs! tears of joy


How did Bergevin keep his job?
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5 févr. à 10 h 34
#37
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Matheson likely gets a similar return as Monahan, maybe a bit more. The difference is (obviously) that if Matheson goes to a bubble playoff team (like Pittsburgh), the first round pick coming back from them has a pretty good chance of being possibly 10 picks higher than the Winnipeg pick. That makes it more difficult for any bubble team to add anything other than their first round pick (in my opinion).

But people should not discount the value that Matheson has, as he is putting up good offensive numbers for a defenseman on a team that struggles mightily to score. His defensive game has not been fantastic this year, but put him out there with a good defensive defenseman on a better team and that likely gets better too.

I would love for Matheson to return a mid to late teens pick for Montreal.

As far as replacing him with a veteran to help guide Guhle, Barron, Mailloux, Harris etc, that's what Montreal can try to do in free agency in the off season. There are always some form of mentors available. That should not be a massive deterrent for Hughes to trade Matheson as far as I am concerned.
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5 févr. à 11 h 5
#38
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
If that were the case, the Pens would have been spending $1.5M on each of his wings through his entire career. If you don't know that Smith is a top six winger in the NHL then I'm not sure we can have a conversation.


Based on his production this year, he seems like a former top 6 winger who is quickly declining...
5 févr. à 11 h 5
#39
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Quoting: KentMcNally
Matheson likely gets a similar return as Monahan, maybe a bit more. The difference is (obviously) that if Matheson goes to a bubble playoff team (like Pittsburgh), the first round pick coming back from them has a pretty good chance of being possibly 10 picks higher than the Winnipeg pick. That makes it more difficult for any bubble team to add anything other than their first round pick (in my opinion).

But people should not discount the value that Matheson has, as he is putting up good offensive numbers for a defenseman on a team that struggles mightily to score. His defensive game has not been fantastic this year, but put him out there with a good defensive defenseman on a better team and that likely gets better too.

I would love for Matheson to return a mid to late teens pick for Montreal.

As far as replacing him with a veteran to help guide Guhle, Barron, Mailloux, Harris etc, that's what Montreal can try to do in free agency in the off season. There are always some form of mentors available. That should not be a massive deterrent for Hughes to trade Matheson as far as I am concerned.


That's the dumb part about TDL... IMO, Matheson>>>>Monahan and yet they'll get roughly the same amount
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5 févr. à 11 h 6
#40
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
How did Bergevin keep his job?


No clue. The foxhole madness was funny for a while at least!
5 févr. à 11 h 7
#41
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Quoting: jonh514
No clue. The foxhole madness was funny for a while at least!


As a Leafs fan, I was extremely dissapointed the Habs didn't offer Bergevin a 20 year extension while they could have
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5 févr. à 11 h 7
#42
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I could be entertained by a playoff protected 1st+Vanacek for Montembault potentially.

Idk if the goalie market has him get that high in value but I think I’d like it.

Maybe if he can’t garner a 1st, a pair of 2nds+Vanacek instead
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5 févr. à 11 h 7
#43
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Quoting: Leafsfan98
That's the dumb part about TDL... IMO, Matheson>>>>Monahan and yet they'll get roughly the same amount


Matheson "should" get more. There is not a lot of history for top 20 offensive numbers defensemen getting traded at the TDL...
5 févr. à 11 h 9
#44
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Quoting: dgibb10
I could be entertained by a playoff protected 1st+Vanacek for Montembault potentially.

Idk if the goalie market has him get that high in value but I think I’d like it.

Maybe if he can’t garner a 1st, a pair of 2nds+Vanacek instead


Appreciate your insight. I agree that the Habs probably take back a player with some salary. Not sure it's a goalie though.
5 févr. à 11 h 10
#45
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Quoting: jonh514
Based on his production this year, he seems like a former top 6 winger who is quickly declining...


People who judge proven consistent players based on a slump show they have very little understanding of the game. People who do this, like you, judge player's careers on a game to game basis and that's just not how it goes.

It's easy to look at career stats and see the final numbers, but don't know the roads of those seasons. They just assume it was consistent all the way through.
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#46
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Quoting: jonh514
Matheson "should" get more. There is not a lot of history for top 20 offensive numbers defensemen getting traded at the TDL...


I get that, that's why I called the TDL dumb
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5 févr. à 11 h 11
#47
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Quoting: Imagine874859
Idc where he goes because either way I don't see this team making the playoffs and if we do we arent getting past the first round lol


I agree. I, like a lot of Habs, have been a fan of Crosby/Letang and co for a lot of years. It hurts to see the decline and I wanted them all to get their "last dance", which seems unlikely now.
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5 févr. à 11 h 15
#48
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
People who judge proven consistent players based on a slump show they have very little understanding of the game. People who do this, like you, judge player's careers on a game to game basis and that's just not how it goes.

It's easy to look at career stats and see the final numbers, but don't know the roads of those seasons. They just assume it was consistent all the way through.


Commentors who judge other proven consistent commentors on this site based on one comment or post they dislike, like you, often make things personal when they are losing an argument.
5 févr. à 11 h 33
#49
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Quoting: jonh514
Commentors who judge other proven consistent commentors on this site based on one comment or post they dislike, like you, often make things personal when they are losing an argument.


That's a nice little troll attempt, but the reality remains that the best most consistent players go through slumps, so to suddenly say he's hit his decline after struggling to adjust to a new team/system is really just ignorance. What's also funny, to prove my point even more, especially with how memories are so fleeting is that Sid actually had a slow start to the season and everyone jumped to "Uh oh, looks like Sid is finally showing his age." Well, we see how quickly people were quick to forget saying they said that.

This happens year-in and year-out with any player who suddenly hits a slump or simply has a an entirely bad season, which can happen as well without meaning their career has hit a wall. People who've watched hockey for years are aware of this and don't jump to silly conclusions.
5 févr. à 11 h 50
#50
DNP1932
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
That's a nice little troll attempt, but the reality remains that the best most consistent players go through slumps, so to suddenly say he's hit his decline after struggling to adjust to a new team/system is really just ignorance. What's also funny, to prove my point even more, especially with how memories are so fleeting is that Sid actually had a slow start to the season and everyone jumped to "Uh oh, looks like Sid is finally showing his age." Well, we see how quickly people were quick to forget saying they said that.

This happens year-in and year-out with any player who suddenly hits a slump or simply has a an entirely bad season, which can happen as well without meaning their career has hit a wall. People who've watched hockey for years are aware of this and don't jump to silly conclusions.


An actual pens fan who has this idea i wonderful to see lol, same thing happened with rakell at the beginning of the year people yelling to get him off the roster. 0G-4A-4P in his first 17 games, then after coming back from injury has 5G-9A-14P in his next 17 games. People definitely go through slumps and sadly a lot of pens players have experienced that this season, i attribute that a bit too some of their ages (malkin mainly), but would not be surprised in the slightest if some of the slow players pre all star break come out fast after having a rest, and that includes smith and malkin. Especially if we see that same injury reset that rakell had with smith. The thing with smith is the whole 2nd line was really not great, like it wasnt a smith specific thing to me. But here’s hoping for the best i guess.
 
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