1. The St Louis trade was Martin + 2nd for top 6, 1st and conditional 2nd. So wash the 2s and its St Louis for top 6 and a late first (basically the same as 1st and prospect)

2. Hossa + Dupuis (middle 6) for perennial free agent Christensen middle 6 + late first + prospect. So wash middle 6s and ignore depth forward and you have a late first + prospect

*In both trade scenarios there’s a bit more nuance to it, especially what I’m washing, but they’re both pretty close to what we’ve been saying all along. Nobody is coming close to touching 3 late firsts

3. These are both hall of fame players you’re comparing him to. Is his production solid? Yes. But I don’t think anyone has Guentzel penciled as a top 4 most likely candidate for the hall of fame on his own team. Who knows though, maybe he’ll get there.

4. You’re assuming our pick is 4th overall, but it also has almost a 1 in 4 shot of hitting top 2 in the lottery.

5. Even if a #4 is ‘valued’ at 3 late 1sts, I’m taking top #4 over the 3 picks every day of the week.

I think we should just agree in our common ground that a Guentzel trade makes no sense for ANA

See your first part I understand. The 4th overall pick is very valuable. However you lose a ton of credibility with statements like this:

Guentzel can probably fetch pick 28 and a Poulin level prospect,

Please recognize that Mr G asking for 3 low 1sts + a 2nd + a top prospect is actually closer to a realistic evaluation than a low 1st and B prospect.

I gave two examples (St. Louis and Hossa) of soon to be UFA wingers of high talent level in their late 20s. Both went for a ton more than what you just said. Both were statistically worse than Guentzel.

Both came with more than just themselves. St. Louis came with a second, Hossa came with Dupuis who put up a 59 point season in Pitt and was a significant part of their cup dynasty.

Puolin was a first round pick, same as Armstrong or Esposito in the Hossa deal, and the pick was #29. Those are the top prospects you get in a pending UFA deal, because those are the kind of prospects left in a teams system when they are trying to make a cup push. When the last time a pending UFA got a first AND an A prospect?

So what are you hypothetically adding to Guentzel to boost the return past 2 1sts? Retention? Taking a bad contract the other way? Another roster player or prospect?

1.) The St. Louis trade was a 2nd and Marty for 2sts and Callihan. Callihan was 27 and had a ton of value as a top 6 forward.

2.) Christensen and Armstrong were highly drafted under 25 guys who were solidly top 6 guys. Both averaged about 0.9 goals per 60 and 2.0 points per 60. Dupuis was 27, undrafted and scored 0.7 goals and 1.5 points per 60. They were certainly not a wash at the time. Dupuis had almost no value and was seen as a throw in.

Those guys are HOFers but looking at their 3 years before FA:
Player A:
Xgoals: 41.1
Goals: 37.7
Points: 81.7
Corsi: 60%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 18.0%

Player B:
Xgoals: 23.3
Goals: 28.0
Points: 81.7
Corsi: 53.3%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 4.5%

Player C:
Xgoals: 31.4
Goals: 37
Points: 86
Corsi: 55.1%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 10.5%

Which guy had the best 3 year span?

And yes, we can agree that Ana makes no sense here.

I posted above but a few things:
Dupuis was seen as an insignificant piece. No one saw his chemistry with Crosby coming.

You say Poulin is like Armstrong. Ok but then you have to account for the top 30 propsect. And Christensen.

I wouldn't trade Guentzel to Ana. Ana wouldn't want him and Guentzel wouldn't want to go there. If I were trading him to a contender like Van, it would be 1st + Wallander or Lekkerimaki + Kuzmenko

lol I can tell this is going to be a waste of both our time. We’ll agree to disagree. Wish you good health

And you're doing yourself a disservice by pulling comps from the tail end of the dead puck era vs today's NHL.

Look at the last couple of TDL's big name UFAs to be Tarasenko, Kane, Horvat, Giroux, those are your trade comparables.

That's fair. Same you. Sincerely.

The Dead Puck Era was over in 2005. Hossa was traded in 2007. St. Louis was traded in 2014.

Guentzel has better numbers than all guys bolded above in the 2.5 seasons before they were traded.

Guentzel:
Xgoals: 41.1
Goals: 37.7
Points: 81.7
Corsi: 60%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 18.0%

Horvat:
Xgoals: 27.1
Goals: 32.0
Points: 61.0
Corsi: 56%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 2.3%

Kane:
Xgoals: 19.1
Goals: 22.3
Points: 80.3
Corsi: 52%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 17.9%

Giroux:
Xgoals: 17.3
Goals: 21
Points: 60
Corsi: 60%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 9.1%

Tarasenko (I counted his last 3 healthy seasons)
Xgoals: 21.6
Goals: 28.3
Points: 66.7
Corsi: 53%
Shooting Talent Above Average: 18.1%


Guentzel is better to much better.

Now what did they get traded for?
Horvat: Middle 1st + Top 6 winger + NYI 2nd best prospect

Giroux: Top 30 prospect + 3rd + 1st

Kane: Conditional 1st and some minor guys (not a fair comp as Kane only had 1 place he was willing to go)

Tarasenko: 1st, 4th, and B prospect

So Guentzel is better than that group and you think he is worth the least of them (Tarasenko and Kane)?

Kane wouldn't go anywhere buy NY and Tarasenko wasn't healthy / as effective as pre injuries.

Guentzel's trade floor is Giroux or Horvat. Which is what I said about Van.
Low 1st + A prospect + NHL player

Likewise!