Wonder what that Saros extension looks like

Bad, but necessary

I'm gonna guess in the 7.5m+ range for 7+ years

From a NSH fan, probably somewhere in the ballpark of Sorokin's deal. That's where I'm anticipating Trotz to start when it comes to contract extension.

Yeah, I'd guess $7.5M if he re-signs in NSH, $8-8.5M with a different team.

It's a moot point for NJ, if this is their offer for him.

8-8.5 is quite a lot of money for a goalie

What do you mean by that, are you saying this isn't enough? This would be the largest package traded for a goalie in a very long time, more than Schneider got.

I'd say that NSH declines this. I like the first, but Schmid is not the prospect that NSH is looking for. Saros is likely only getting moved for someone who can be a top 6C. I would say Holtz is the prospect they go after, but I doubt that NSH makes that deal considering how many wingers they already have in pipeline, especially at RW. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it would take some moving around on NSH's end to make that happen.

So value is good but Schmid is the wrong prospect is what you're saying? There isn't really another prospect similar in value to Schmid, so NSH ought to just take this and find their center elsewhere. Besides, holding out specifically for a center prospect is counting your chickens before they hatch. Best player available trumps team need 99% of the time.

Vasi, Bob money…I’d walk
$8m…maybe it’s 4-5 years
$7m ish…do it

(In a nutshell)

Look at what Sorokin and Hellebuyck got on their new deals. That's the going rate for top tier goalies right now.



Schneider who wasn't even established as a starter yet at the time of that trade went for a 9OA pick. Here you're offering just a 1st you're ballparking at 16OA. That's less.

Schmid might be worth a 3rd to some team, but NSH isn't one of them. I'd rather keep the pick.

You're criminally underrating both Schmid and Schneider. Schneider was absolutely an established elite goalie and his trade return was possibly the largest in the cap era

Hawks decline. They'll only have an interest in Vanacek if they don't re-sign Mrazak. But Vanacek takes a 3rd to dump.

Schneider started 63% of games the season before trade…had top-5 numbers in three years before. And was a few years younger at time and had term.

Schneider got more because he was worth more.

I mean Schneider had technically been VAN's starter in the shortened 12-13 season, but he hadn't played in more than 33 games in a season, at the time of the trade. He was neither an established starter nor elite, when NJ got him (he never did become elite).

How am I underrating Schmid? He's currently an okayish 3rd string goalie, with the upside to become a backup. A 3rd would be more than generous for him, if a mid 1st is considered a hefty price for an established top tier perennial Vezina nominee at a cheap $5M cap hit.

Schneider was one year younger than Saros is now, at the time of the trade. He did have one extra year of term. He also made only $1M less than Saros does now, despite the salary cap being over $19M less, heading into 13-14. As I mentioned above, he hadn't handled a starter's workload yet, despite the technicality of having played the most games for VAN in a lockout season.

I'm not certain which specific numbers you're using to determine he was top five, but I'm too lazy to research all the goalie stats from that era, right now. Surely he would have been getting lots of Vezina and Hart votes in those three years though, like Saros has in his last three seasons, if he's worth so much more.

If you think Schneider wasn't elite I don't know what to tell you:

In the 3 years before the trade:

1st in sv% (0.931)
1st in GAA (2.09)
4th in total GSAx at 43.11 (1st was Henrik at 97, then ward at 47.35, then Dubnyk at 43.15, then Cory, then Luongo at 28.77)
2nd in GSAx/60 behind only Henrik

Overall through his prime from 2010-2016

1st in sv% (0.926)
1st in GAA (2.13)
2nd in Total GSAx behind only Henrik
2nd in GSax/60 behind only Henrik

If that's not elite I don't know what is

I'll readily admit those individual numbers from his prime years are better than I'd thought. Not elite, but better than I thought. FWIW I wouldn't call Saros elite either (and I think what we've seen of Saros' prime so far has been more impressive than Schneider's was). He might still hit that level, as I don't believe he's peaked yet. But as good as he's been the past three seasons, I'd just say top tier - not elite.

Also worth keeping in mind, is that Saros is someone who's proven they can handle a very heavy starter's workload. Schneider hadn't done that with VAN. Knowing matters, because a lot of guy can't handle the workload/pressure. Anders Lindback once looked like a future starter, after a couple great seasons as a backup who'd had to carry the load for a spell here and there. How'd that work out for Tampa?

Sure, but name a goalie in the last 20 years who got a return bigger than the one offered here. Vezina winner Fleury got literally nothing in return!

A bigger return than what's essentially one 1st (slightly more or slightly less than a 1st, depending on how much one values Schmid, in comparison to a 3rd)? Let's see...

ARI got a 1st, 3rd & a prospect (Timmins) for Kuemper

ANA got a 1st & a 2nd for Andersen

NSH got a 1st & two 2nds for Vokoun

SJ got a 1st and a prospect (Kuraly) for Jones

WSH got a 1st & a 2nd for Varlamov (just a bit outside the 20 year window)

BUF got a 1st, 3rd, a prospect (Carrier), and a guy they flipped for a 2nd a year later (Stewart) for Miller (with a rental depth piece added by each side)

And how many of those guys were as good as Saros? The goalies never get good returns fallacy persists because star goalies in their prime get traded so infrequently. Everyone just thinks goalies have no trade value because they see struggling/washed up/overpaid ones hit waivers more frequently.

MAF getting traded for nothing was a very unusual situation. VGK was in cap hell, and the guy was 36 at the time. Even then, CHI was still able to get a 2nd for him, as a deadline rental.

Schmid ought to be worth a 2nd, no?

I don't see why he'd be worth that much. He might have been in the summer, coming off a hot playoff performance. But that's a small sample size, and he's crashed back down to earth hard since then. Even a 3rd feels overly generous,

He's still a high quality goaltending prospect. I'd rather him than any goalie available in a typical 2nd round

Then you should hold onto him. I don't see him having that kind of value across the league. Especially not for a team like NSH, who already has a potential superstar goalie prospect.

I'd think the opposite. Just look at Boston. If Askarov is the starter of the future, Schmid would make it a frightening tandem. Devils already have Daws, who is more or less at the same level as Schmid, and are in need of that guaranteed starter.