2024 Devils

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Quoting: dgibb10

The upgrade from Vanacek to even mediocre play like Mrazek (which should cost like a 4th) would be massive.

Not sure Mrazek is an upgrade from Vanacek tbh

2 janv. à 13 h 26

#28

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Quoting: dgibb10

I don’t want to stand pat.

But I am going to use comparables to make my trades.

And the comparables from a decade of goalie trades say they aren’t that expensive to acquire.

Every time people try and go against the comparables, the comparables always win. Every fanbase has a justification on why their player should be worth way more than the comps. They almost always return the comps.

The upgrade from Vanacek to even mediocre play like Mrazek (which should cost like a 4th) would be massive.

That doesn’t mean pay the moon for a goalie. It means get anyone but Vanacek

Your general assumption is that they don’t cost much

I wouldn’t trade much for a 36 or 37 year old center personally. Using old players as a baseline for all deals is disingenuous.

I don’t believe that Taylor Hall is only worth Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula, but cap health can impact trade value. Using cap dumps as a baseline deal for all deals would be disingenuous

Most top shelf goalies aren’t traded for whatever reason and whether you like it or not, Jersey’s current mgmt team hasn’t shown the ability to acquire a goalie and develop them.

We can have a viable argument whether Holtz and a second rounder is too much or if retention on Vanacek would be needed in this deal, but all I can tell you is a conditional first isn’t going to get it done and if that is your finishing point, there is no point in having a discussion in the first place.

You are the prospector going door to door saying market value of your house is 700k in a neighborhood and wondering why the owners with manicured lawns and tasteful interiors are telling you F off, while the single guy with water damage on his ceiling and scratches on his wood floors is entertaining it.

BruinsWoahWoah a aimé ceci.

2 janv. à 13 h 30

#29

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Not sure Mrazek is an upgrade from Vanacek tbh

He is an upgrade. He is maybe in the top 30 goalies in the league where Vanacek is probably in the 40-50 range

2 janv. à 13 h 49

#30

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Quoting: Celtics21

He is an upgrade. He is maybe in the top 30 goalies in the league where Vanacek is probably in the 40-50 range

I should clarify... Mrazek may be better than Vanecek, but I don't think its a massive difference maker for New Jersey.

Career numbers
Mrazek: 2.79 GAA and .907 SV%
Vanecek: 2.75 GAA and .905 SV%

Mrzaek is certainly having a better year but is still allowing 3+ GAA and is at .904. If you look at Mrazek's last two years, he was pretty below average on both Toronto and Chicago with sub-.900 SV%. He was solid in Carolina. I just wouldn't count on him to completely turn around New Jersey's goaltending woes.

2 janv. à 13 h 51

#31

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

I should clarify... Mrazek may be better than Vanecek, but I don't think its a massive difference maker for New Jersey.

Career numbers
Mrazek: 2.79 GAA and .907 SV%
Vanecek: 2.75 GAA and .905 SV%

Mrzaek is certainly having a better year but is still allowing 3+ GAA and is at .904. If you look at Mrazek's last two years, he was pretty below average on both Toronto and Chicago with sub-.900 SV%. He was solid in Carolina. I just wouldn't count on him to completely turn around New Jersey's goaltending woes.

I tend to look at Goals Saved Above Expected per 60. They both kind of suck there, but Mrazek looks better this year. Then again, James Reimer was viewed as viable by Jersey fans until his recent cold streak

BruinsWoahWoah et dgibb10 a aimé ceci.

2 janv. à 13 h 53

#32

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Not sure Mrazek is an upgrade from Vanacek tbh

Anything is an upgrade from Vanacek’s play up to this point in the season.

Vanacek going forward maybe not much worse than Mrazek.

But so far Vanacek has been overall the wors6 (Campbell and Samsonov and others have been worse but over a smaller sample size so overall have had less of a negative impact) goalie in hockey.

BruinsWoahWoah a aimé ceci.

2 janv. à 14 h 2

#33

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

I should clarify... Mrazek may be better than Vanecek, but I don't think its a massive difference maker for New Jersey.

Career numbers
Mrazek: 2.79 GAA and .907 SV%
Vanecek: 2.75 GAA and .905 SV%

Mrzaek is certainly having a better year but is still allowing 3+ GAA and is at .904. If you look at Mrazek's last two years, he was pretty below average on both Toronto and Chicago with sub-.900 SV%. He was solid in Carolina. I just wouldn't count on him to completely turn around New Jersey's goaltending woes.

I’m not expecting him to be elite. I expect in the randomness of goalies that 1 of Schmid Daws Vanacek and Mrazek to provide competent goaltending from here on out.

Literally anything, including Vanacek going forward, will be better than what Vanacek has been so fat

2 janv. à 14 h 6

#34

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Quoting: Celtics21

Your general assumption is that they don’t cost much

I wouldn’t trade much for a 36 or 37 year old center personally. Using old players as a baseline for all deals is disingenuous.

I don’t believe that Taylor Hall is only worth Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula, but cap health can impact trade value. Using cap dumps as a baseline deal for all deals would be disingenuous

Most top shelf goalies aren’t traded for whatever reason and whether you like it or not, Jersey’s current mgmt team hasn’t shown the ability to acquire a goalie and develop them.

We can have a viable argument whether Holtz and a second rounder is too much or if retention on Vanacek would be needed in this deal, but all I can tell you is a conditional first isn’t going to get it done and if that is your finishing point, there is no point in having a discussion in the first place.

You are the prospector going door to door saying market value of your house is 700k in a neighborhood and wondering why the owners with manicured lawns and tasteful interiors are telling you F off, while the single guy with water damage on his ceiling and scratches on his wood floors is entertaining it.

“General assumption”

Being every goalie traded in the last 15 years.

If you guys can find comparables to justify your asks, I’m happy to pay it.

I don’t care who the goalie comes from. I’d go to every team and everyone with an offer (obviously with a ranking in mind but nobody I’d particularly care for to overpay). All of which would follow comparables. Both top tier, mid tier, and stopgap. If every single team decides to jack up the goalie market, then I’d go and up the offers.

But unless it absolutely comes down to the only way to get a goalie from any team in the league is to massively overpay (which I find extremely unlikely based on the entire history of the NHL in the salary cap era), I’m going to follow the comps

2 janv. à 14 h 44

#35

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Quoting: dgibb10

“General assumption”

Being every goalie traded in the last 15 years.

If you guys can find comparables to justify your asks, I’m happy to pay it.

I don’t care who the goalie comes from. I’d go to every team and everyone with an offer (obviously with a ranking in mind but nobody I’d particularly care for to overpay). All of which would follow comparables. Both top tier, mid tier, and stopgap. If every single team decides to jack up the goalie market, then I’d go and up the offers.

But unless it absolutely comes down to the only way to get a goalie from any team in the league is to massively overpay (which I find extremely unlikely based on the entire history of the NHL in the salary cap era), I’m going to follow the comps

Kuemper, Andersen, Martin Jones, Lehner, Cory Schneider, and Varlamov all netted firsts + other assets. Price for Ullmark starts with a first round pick.

2 janv. à 14 h 46

#36

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Kuemper, Andersen, Martin Jones, Lehner, Cory Schneider, and Varlamov all netted firsts + other assets. Price for Ullmark starts with a first round pick.

Were any of those goalies 30+ year old rentals?

Bc from what I can see you listed a bunch of younger goalies with control.

And Schneider who was a tier above (he’s much closer to a Swayman comp)

Kuemper is a comp but he was retained.

3.4 mill for a heavily conditional 3rd, 1st, and prospect.

I would offer 1st+3rd conditional on us winning the cup (same as kuemper condistions) for a 5 mill Ullmark if push came to shove. Wouldn’t be my first choice tho

2 janv. à 14 h 54

#37

BruinsCharlies

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I have been loathe to trade Ullmark because the duo of Swayman and him give Boston the one advantage they have over every NHL team.

That being said this trade for the Bruins I would wholeheartedly accept. It addresses Boston's needs of draft capital, a potential bona fide scorer and experienced backup goaltending for the next 1.5 seasons.

2 janv. à 15 h 6

#38

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Kuemper, Andersen, Martin Jones, Lehner, Cory Schneider, and Varlamov all netted firsts + other assets. Price for Ullmark starts with a first round pick.

Jones, Andersen, Schneider, and Varlamov, Lehner are all more similar to Swayman comps. Younger, controlled goalies hitting RFA/moved to keep older goalies.

And again, I’d be happy to pay those comps for Swayman.

Dawson Mercer would be my offer.

2 janv. à 15 h 8

#39

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Kuemper, Andersen, Martin Jones, Lehner, Cory Schneider, and Varlamov all netted firsts + other assets. Price for Ullmark starts with a first round pick.

My list of Ullmark comps are offers like Bishop, Luongo, Kuemper, Fluery, Lehner (the 2nd time), etc

2 janv. à 15 h 32

#40

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Quoting: dgibb10

Were any of those goalies 30+ year old rentals?

Bc from what I can see you listed a bunch of younger goalies with control.

And Schneider who was a tier above (he’s much closer to a Swayman comp)

Kuemper is a comp but he was retained.

3.4 mill for a heavily conditional 3rd, 1st, and prospect.

I would offer 1st+3rd conditional on us winning the cup (same as kuemper condistions) for a 5 mill Ullmark if push came to shove. Wouldn’t be my first choice tho

Kuemper is probably the best comp for Ullmark - he was a 31 year old rental (same age as Ullmark is now) and returned RFA rights to Timmins, a 1st, and a conditional 3rd with $1M retention on Kuemper. That being said, Ullmark is the better player and has better track record than Kuemper.

2 janv. à 15 h 39

#41

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Kuemper is probably the best comp for Ullmark - he was a 31 year old rental (same age as Ullmark is now) and returned RFA rights to Timmins, a 1st, and a conditional 3rd with $1M retention on Kuemper. That being said, Ullmark is the better player and has better track record than Kuemper.

I’d rather have kuemper who was dominant as a workhorse on a bad Arizona team than a Ullmark who’s never handled a true starters workload behind a defensively sound system in Boston and has disastrous playoff results

But like I said, if it came down to it I’d offer 1st+ conditional 3rd for Ullmark at 5 mill vs 1st+prospect+conditional 3rd for kuemper at 3.4 mill

Also just curious did you intentionally name a bunch of “comps” that have no age comparison while ignoring other comps of veteran goalie rentals like fluery, lehner to Vegas, bishop, etc to try and raise what the perceived value was?

2 janv. à 16 h 32

#42

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Quoting: dgibb10

I’d rather have kuemper who was dominant as a workhorse on a bad Arizona team than a Ullmark who’s never handled a true starters workload behind a defensively sound system in Boston and has disastrous playoff results

But like I said, if it came down to it I’d offer 1st+ conditional 3rd for Ullmark at 5 mill vs 1st+prospect+conditional 3rd for kuemper at 3.4 mill

Also just curious did you intentionally name a bunch of “comps” that have no age comparison while ignoring other comps of veteran goalie rentals like fluery, lehner to Vegas, bishop, etc to try and raise what the perceived value was?

Kuemper's best year in Arizona statistically came when he played in 29 games. He only had one season in Arizona where he played more than 30 games, which was 57 appearances in 2018-2019, so he was really only a "workhorse" for one season. In his 10 year career, he has only made more than 30 appearances three times.

- Lehner to Vegas trade got a second round pick and two prospects - I don't think its a good comp because of Lehner's off-ice baggage, he was playing some of his worst hockey in Chicago, and fell out of favor with the GM and was not in the team's future plans. Source: https://theathletic.com/1631997/2020/02/24/blackhawks-trade-goaltender-robin-lehner-to-golden-knights/.

Some excerpts: But Lehner left quietly, muddling through the worst stretch of his season and being shipped off to Las Vegas ahead of Monday’s trade deadline. The Blackhawks are getting a second-round pick, goaltender Malcolm Subban and defenseman prospect Slava Demin, per Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. Lehner, a Vezina finalist a year ago with the New York Islanders, was a surprise free-agent signing in July, coming to Chicago on a one-year, $5-million contract. His openness about his mental health and alcoholism during his time in Buffalo made him a symbol of strength and hope for many, but apparently made him too big of a risk for most general managers around the league. In the meantime, Crawford — who significantly outplayed Lehner over the past month, posting a .939 save percentage compared to Lehner’s .888 — remains the Blackhawks’ goalie of the present and possibly the future.

- Fleury was 6 years older than Ullmark currently is so less market for a 36 year old than a player still in his prime.

- Which Bishop trade are you referring to? The 2017 trade to LA Kings where he had a full NMC?

2 janv. à 16 h 41

#43

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Kuemper's best year in Arizona statistically came when he played in 29 games. He only had one season in Arizona where he played more than 30 games, which was 57 appearances in 2018-2019, so he was really only a "workhorse" for one season. In his 10 year career, he has only made more than 30 appearances three times.

- Lehner to Vegas trade got a second round pick and two prospects - I don't think its a good comp because of Lehner's off-ice baggage, he was playing some of his worst hockey in Chicago, and fell out of favor with the GM and was not in the team's future plans. Source: https://theathletic.com/1631997/2020/02/24/blackhawks-trade-goaltender-robin-lehner-to-golden-knights/.

Some excerpts: But Lehner left quietly, muddling through the worst stretch of his season and being shipped off to Las Vegas ahead of Monday’s trade deadline. The Blackhawks are getting a second-round pick, goaltender Malcolm Subban and defenseman prospect Slava Demin, per Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. Lehner, a Vezina finalist a year ago with the New York Islanders, was a surprise free-agent signing in July, coming to Chicago on a one-year, $5-million contract. His openness about his mental health and alcoholism during his time in Buffalo made him a symbol of strength and hope for many, but apparently made him too big of a risk for most general managers around the league. In the meantime, Crawford — who significantly outplayed Lehner over the past month, posting a .939 save percentage compared to Lehner’s .888 — remains the Blackhawks’ goalie of the present and possibly the future.

- Fleury was 6 years older than Ullmark currently is so less market for a 36 year old than a player still in his prime.

- Which Bishop trade are you referring to? The 2017 trade to LA Kings where he had a full NMC?

There’s always a reason why a goalie doesn’t go for much.

For Ullmark it’s his age, being a system goalie, lack of ever handling a true starters workload, playoff failures, lack of term, partial NTC, and the fact that’s he’s becoming obsolete in Boston, a team who needs to find top 6Cs (the most expensive asset in the NHL, 9 mill for a 2C like Lindholm in todays market btw).

A good backup goalie is a nice luxury that helps win games in the regular season. Complete waste in the playoffs when every team is playing their starter every game.

2 janv. à 16 h 52

#44

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Quoting: dgibb10

IAlso just curious did you intentionally name a bunch of “comps” that have no age comparison while ignoring other comps of veteran goalie rentals like fluery, lehner to Vegas, bishop, etc to try and raise what the perceived value was?

Ummm… take a look at your comparables in terms of age. Keumper is the best comparable and like I’ve said, Boston likely doesn’t trade him to an east coast team unless they make it worth their while and it’s a better offer than from a team in the other conference.

A first with no salary coming back only makes sense if multiple free agents say they want to come and we don’t have the cap room to sign both with our free room (you’d have to get to two premium players to get to that point).

The first deal actually made sense with the retention or the 2nd being a discussion point. I’m not sure if view Holtz as worth more than Ullmark in any realm, but he’s an interesting flyer that could be if he materializes. The likely scenario is Ullmark changes NJ significantly more than Holtz changes Boston

My view on Vanacek is I wouldn’t want him at 1.7 and a 3rd is a throwaway pick.

Holtz is interesting, but we have some interesting options where service time is going to create an eligible for waivers issue soon enough. Lysell, if committed to playing a specific game, is the type of high shelf option this team desperately needs.

2 janv. à 16 h 57

#45

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Quoting: Celtics21

Ummm… take a look at your comparables in terms of age. Keumper is the best comparable and like I’ve said, Boston likely doesn’t trade him to an east coast team unless they make it worth their while and it’s a better offer than from a team in the other conference.

A first with no salary coming back only makes sense if multiple free agents say they want to come and we don’t have the cap room to sign both with our free room (you’d have to get to two premium players to get to that point).

The first deal actually made sense

My view on Vanacek is I wouldn’t want him at 1.7 and a 3rd is a throwaway pick.

Holtz is interesting, but we have some interesting options where service time is going to create an eligible for waivers issue soon enough. Lysell, if committed to playing a specific game, is the type of high shelf option this team desperately needs.

Holtz would only be on the table in a swayman deal. (1st+Holtz+Vanacek to compare to the Schneider value).

I would be shocked if Boston doesn’t move on from a goalie this offseason. 12 mill on goalies doesn’t seem like the brightest idea.

If the market yields a deal similar to the kuemper deal, I would expect Boston to take it.

If the market is really ugly on Ullmark, I could see them moving Swayman who will actually hold legit value in getting them a top 6 C, where Ullmark won’t get them close to it.

NJD and Boston aren’t competing unless it’s in the ECF. This isn’t a division rival you’re sending him to. If you try and limit yourself to only western conference teams, it’s gonna tank his value even more.

Especially with his trade protections.

2 janv. à 17 h 1

#46

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Quoting: Celtics21

Ummm… take a look at your comparables in terms of age. Keumper is the best comparable and like I’ve said, Boston likely doesn’t trade him to an east coast team unless they make it worth their while and it’s a better offer than from a team in the other conference.

A first with no salary coming back only makes sense if multiple free agents say they want to come and we don’t have the cap room to sign both with our free room (you’d have to get to two premium players to get to that point).

The first deal actually made sense with the retention or the 2nd being a discussion point. I’m not sure if view Holtz as worth more than Ullmark in any realm, but he’s an interesting flyer that could be if he materializes. The likely scenario is Ullmark changes NJ significantly more than Holtz changes Boston

My view on Vanacek is I wouldn’t want him at 1.7 and a 3rd is a throwaway pick.

Holtz is interesting, but we have some interesting options where service time is going to create an eligible for waivers issue soon enough. Lysell, if committed to playing a specific game, is the type of high shelf option this team desperately needs.

If you want to not sell to the East, enjoy the 2nd from LAK. Because that’s the only suitor out west.

2 janv. à 17 h 4

#47

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Quoting: dgibb10

There’s always a reason why a goalie doesn’t go for much.

For Ullmark it’s his age, being a system goalie, lack of ever handling a true starters workload, playoff failures, lack of term, partial NTC, and the fact that’s he’s becoming obsolete in Boston, a team who needs to find top 6Cs (the most expensive asset in the NHL, 9 mill for a 2C like Lindholm in todays market btw).

A good backup goalie is a nice luxury that helps win games in the regular season. Complete waste in the playoffs when every team is playing their starter every game.

Goalies don't go for much because teams with goalies as good as Ullmark don't trade them? We can agree that Kuemper is the best comp to Ullmark based on age, contract circumstances, and performance. Kuemper was only available because he was playing for the perennial bottom dwelling Coyotes.

IMO the only credible point you bring up is his playoff performance. His age, system goalie (he was good on a terrible Buffalo team), starter workload (he would play more if Sway wasn't so good and has played 40+ games every season in Boston.. to put this in perspective Carter Hart and Demo have played in 120/121 regular season games since 2021. Ullmark has played in 108. Are Hart/Demko not starters?), and NTC are irrelevant because it wouldn't factor into negotiations with NJD. I don't think he is becoming obsolete in Boston - I am sure the Bruins would be happy to bring him back next season to keep Swayman fresh. Having two elite goaltenders in a huge advantage for Boston.

Bruins are doing just fine with their Top 6 Cs.... they are neck and neck with the Rangers for best record in the league. Coyle has stepped up well to fill the 2C role, Poitras is looking like he will develop into a Top 6 C, they have a few intriguing center prospects, and Pasta is proving that it doesn't matter who the 1C is because he is so dominant... that line has produced whether Zacha was centered the line or Morgan Geekie who has suddenly turned into a PPG player in the last month since moving up to 1C.

2 janv. à 17 h 12

#48

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Goalies don't go for much because teams with goalies as good as Ullmark don't trade them? We can agree that Kuemper is the best comp to Ullmark based on age, contract circumstances, and performance. Kuemper was only available because he was playing for the perennial bottom dwelling Coyotes.

IMO the only credible point you bring up is his playoff performance. His age, system goalie (he was good on a terrible Buffalo team), starter workload (he would play more if Sway wasn't so good and has played 40+ games every season in Boston.. to put this in perspective Carter Hart and Demo have played in 120/121 regular season games since 2021. Ullmark has played in 108. Are Hart/Demko not starters?), and NTC are irrelevant because it wouldn't factor into negotiations with NJD. I don't think he is becoming obsolete in Boston - I am sure the Bruins would be happy to bring him back next season to keep Swayman fresh. Having two elite goaltenders in a huge advantage for Boston.

Bruins are doing just fine with their Top 6 Cs.... they are neck and neck with the Rangers for best record in the league. Coyle has stepped up well to fill the 2C role, Poitras is looking like he will develop into a Top 6 C, they have a few intriguing center prospects, and Pasta is proving that it doesn't matter who the 1C is because he is so dominant... that line has produced whether Zacha was centered the line or Morgan Geekie who has suddenly turned into a PPG player in the last month since moving up to 1C.

The rangers and bruins do have a lot in common. Quick and Ullmark have been very good. And that does give a significant upgrade over the other teams backups.

But you know who doesn’t play in a playoff series? Your backup goalie.

It’s Swayman and Igor vs Woll vs Freddy vs Schmid vs sorokin vs Vasy vs Hart vs Bob vs lindgren.

It’s not Vanacek vs Raanta vs Ullmark vs Kuemper vs Jonas vs varlamov vs quick vs Samsonov.

You don’t get to go against Vanacek or Raanta or Samsonov come playoff time.

Backup goalie play wins regular season games. It doesn’t win playoff series’

2 janv. à 17 h 14

#49

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Quoting: BruinsWoahWoah

Goalies don't go for much because teams with goalies as good as Ullmark don't trade them? We can agree that Kuemper is the best comp to Ullmark based on age, contract circumstances, and performance. Kuemper was only available because he was playing for the perennial bottom dwelling Coyotes.

IMO the only credible point you bring up is his playoff performance. His age, system goalie (he was good on a terrible Buffalo team), starter workload (he would play more if Sway wasn't so good and has played 40+ games every season in Boston.. to put this in perspective Carter Hart and Demo have played in 120/121 regular season games since 2021. Ullmark has played in 108. Are Hart/Demko not starters?), and NTC are irrelevant because it wouldn't factor into negotiations with NJD. I don't think he is becoming obsolete in Boston - I am sure the Bruins would be happy to bring him back next season to keep Swayman fresh. Having two elite goaltenders in a huge advantage for Boston.

Bruins are doing just fine with their Top 6 Cs.... they are neck and neck with the Rangers for best record in the league. Coyle has stepped up well to fill the 2C role, Poitras is looking like he will develop into a Top 6 C, they have a few intriguing center prospects, and Pasta is proving that it doesn't matter who the 1C is because he is so dominant... that line has produced whether Zacha was centered the line or Morgan Geekie who has suddenly turned into a PPG player in the last month since moving up to 1C.

Zacha’s metrics aren’t good. Coyles are nothing special and I wouldn’t trust a 30 year old who’s been a 3C for a decade to suddenly be a guy you can trust. Poitras is a 19 year old. Personally I wouldn’t buy into slotting him in as a decade long top 6 C based on a small sample size. There’s a reason he still got sent to the world Juniors.

2 janv. à 17 h 16

#50