Nice in theory but you are not going to get Risto and Seeler for late picks. Flyers mgmt value Risto pretty high and he's been playing well since his return.

I think with where they're at as a team right now, the Flyers would be better off clearing the cap space while gaining assets in return so they can continue rebuilding. They set their course when they traded Provorov and took back cap dumps, while also dumping Hayes at 50% retention for the next 3 years. They are not ready to compete and Risto's value is at its highest now IMO, though the contract decreases his value in a trade.

They have limited cap space as is, with Hart, Tippet, Walker, Brink and Poehling due for new contracts next year, and Frost, York, Cates, Konecny the year after. They also have guys like Cutter, Michkov and Bonk coming up through the system whose contracts may come due before Risto expires. Makes a lot of sense for them to move on from him, but the cost is debatable for sure. I think based on comparables this would be a fair trade.

Ellis isn't even on LTIR. They don't need cap space

Like I said, you have a lot of players that will require considerable long term investments coming up during Risto's contract - Tippet, Brink, Hart, York, Konecny, Foerster, Frost, Gauthier, Grans, potentially Michkov, Bonk, Andrae... Risto's at 5.1 mil would not be a wise allocation of cap space at that point, and will only become less valuable as he ages. Those players I listed will not come cheap...

Flyers have plenty of cap space for these players. Yes, Risto will probably be dealt at some point; but its not going to be for a 3rd and 5th.

I’d trade Risto for a half eaten 2 week old sandwich if we didn’t have to retain on it.

You're offering a 3rd+5th for him (and a 5th for Seeler who probably would get a 4th) if he was an expiring ufa maybe they take it but with Ristolainen having 3 more years they probably take their chances if that's the best offer.

Your cap argument isn't good at all because they currently have cap, the cap is going up, they have a ton of dead cap that will be off the books in the next 3 years, and not all of those guys will live up to their potential or remain on the team.

What exactly are you expecting for him? The fact he has 3 more years is not a positive, especially as he ages. The fact there's zero retention here is pretty critical, look at the Kevin Hayes trade you just made...

So why did they trade Hayes for a 6th rounder with more than 3 mil retained for 3 years? Does your logic apply here as well?

The age thing isn't an issue due to Right handed defensemen are sought after.

So his value won't decline as he gets into his 30s and is playing without Sanheim as his partner? Defenseman aren't sought after just because they're right handed, there's a lot more to it than that...

Yes, because they cleared over 3M in cap, they only have like ~2M in cap now, which means without the Hayes trade they would be over the cap. There's also the fact that Hayes and Torts didn't want him to be there anymore.

Right, so what happens next year when Hart, Tippet, Seeler, Walker, Brink and Poehling all expire? Do you think that group will somehow become cheaper? How would you be creating the cap space for the considerable increase in salary those players or their replacements would require as a group? And what about the year after when Konecny, Foerster, York, Cates, Frost and Atkinson expire? Or new contracts for Cutter Gauthier Michkov in the future?

Risto doesn't fit their timeline and eats up a considerable amount of cap as a depreciating player, and you've just acknowledged their cap situation. This should be a no-brainer for the Flyers to get assets back for a player who has not lived up to his contract with them while clearing critical cap space for the future.

They are probably trying to flip Walker and Seeler at the TDL for assets, they will easily be able to replace them in FA, which is another reason why they might want to keep Ristolainen for the year at least.

Hart will take the ~2M they have now and part of the cap rise. Brink and Poehling won't cost much. Philadelphia isn't competing, so the cap motivator for moving Ristolainen would be that it frees up 5.5M for them to do other things with, but if they like the guy enough (I don't know that they do). They also need to reach the cap floor, so if they think Ristolainen has a chance of regaining value they'll just keep him. They will dump him if and when they need the cap, or hold him until they can get more, chances are they could still get a 3rd out of him in his final year as a rental, he'll just be 32. On the other hand, a contender like Toronto wouldn't even give a 3rd+5th for him at 5.5Mx3, that cap is worth a whole lot more to them than Ristolaienen would be.

Ristolainein doesn't fit their timeline but they still need players to play on their roster, and a 3rd+5th isn't a considerable return. If they had cap problems last off-season doesn't mean they still have cap problems now or will have cap problems next year. Right now they are cap compliant, next year they will have like 20M in cap to sign 5 guys. That's plenty of money to sign Hart, Tippett, and 3 other guys. Gauthier and Michkov aren't even on ELCs yet and Ristolaienen only has 3 left.

So, I'm not saying that they won't do it, I just said they probably won't but it's possible, but your reasoning that they do it because they need cap wasn't good.

Yeah I understand it's a risk, but if he plays like he did for most of last year then I think that would be great value and could be everything the Leafs need. He's always had the toolset but was prone to mistakes, but finally getting to play in a good structure under Torts with a solid puck mover like Sanheim makes me think he'd be even better with a partner like Rielly, with the talent and structure the Leafs have. I also think he's the type of defenseman that would shine come playoff time with his size, skating and physicality, much more valuable when the checking gets tighter and the space becomes less. I would rather have him and Larsson at $7.1 than Brodie and McCabe at $7, especially with the cost certainty and having Rielly and Hanifin on their flanks. At the very least he's be a competent #4, but I think he'd have the potential for more.

Waaay to risky for the Leafs. I saw the other version earlier with the retention and the two 3rds+5, I think that technically makes more sense for PHI and an interested team, but I still hate it for the Leafs.

I rather have Brodie than Ristolaienen, and McCabe over Seeler. Larsson would be nice but will be costly. If the Leafs are willing to spend all of those assets, they could try going for both Tanev+Hanifin. For next, year they would still have McCabe, Timmins, Rielly for sure, they can sign Tanev instead of Brodie, and maybe they can convince Hanifin to stay long-term (if they are trading Liljegren for him then they better have that certainty).

Rielly-Tanev
Hanifin - McCabe
Benoit-Timmins

Is probably better than:

Rielly - Larsson
Hanifin - Ristolainen
Benoit - Timmins

Imo, they need to find a way to keep Liljegren, so that it would be:

Rielly - Tanev
Hanifin - Liljegren
McCabe - Timmins

Could run a whole ton of different possibilities with that group.

Yeah I guess we just disagree because I'd much prefer the 2nd group. I think they're bigger, faster and better at handling the puck, and should even be an improvement offensively. I don't think Brodie or McCabe have been that great at all for awhile now. Risto has always had the talent but was prone to mistakes. After having some of the puck carrying burden taken off him last year by being paired with Sanheim and playing in a much better defensive structure under Torts, he legitimately finished the year as one of the best defensive D in the league, even despite playing on a team that lacked talent and Sanheim's own struggles. I also think his game is built for playoffs, and I see what Bush and Schenn turned into come playoff time when paired with Rielly in our defensive structure.

I also think Larsson is just a better defenseman than Tanev, and would be signed for 2 mil for 2 years. I don't think the value we'd be giving up would be much different between those two backends either. Without retention on Risto the risk is an understandable concern, though I still see the potential for it to work out based on his talent and what he was capable of showing last year. With retention and a rising cap, I'd do that trade in a heartbeat.

I think Schenn was still pretty good with Rielly, but if you don't like what you saw out of him and McCabe, then I would expect the same thing to happen to Risto when he comes to Toronto. The only way I would want to risk taking him, is if his offensive game comes back as well while in PHI, with 50% retention, would gladly pay a higher cost.

I do think Larsson is an overall better defenseman than Tanev, but I think it would cost more than McCabe+ two 3rds to get him at 50% retention. They will be getting a 4M McCabe essentially, so they probably value him as a 2nd at most, so, it's probably a 1st+McCabe for Larsson + two 4ths or something like that.

I did like what I saw out of Schenn though, and people were talking about him the same way they talk about Ristolainen. I think people forget the raw talent that Risto has, and he showed what he's capable of when he's put in a good situation, one that would be even better with the Leafs. He simply has a better toolset than McCabe or Schenn, but needed to shift his focus to his defensive game rather than taking risks, which he did quite well last year. I'd be willing to pay more for retention as well, as he's a 2nd pairing defenseman at the very least and his contract with retention would be great value, while adding an element that I think is important for this team.

Seattle has a 4 million dollar Larsson and would be getting a 4 million dollar McCabe, so the salaries would be a wash essentially, at which point it's just a matter of figuring out what assets would account for the difference in ability, which is debatable for sure. I would still do the Larsson trade you suggested, and don't think it would cost much less to acquire Tanev. I think the difference between the two would be worth the difference in acquisition cost.

I think long and fast defensemen are crucial when space becomes more limited in the playoffs. With proper defensive structure, the size, speed and physicality of that top 4 would be absolutely suffocating. They're all competent puck retrievers and puck movers as well, and are all capable of providing some offense from the backend when teams collapse around their net and leave more space at the point. I genuinely think that is the ideal mix for playoff success, and with the talent of our forward group and the emergence of Woll and Sammy I have no doubt that this team could legitimately win a cup.

Washington has no need for Jarnkrok. They already have quite a few middle 6 forwards and McMichael+Lapierre are making cases to stay in the top 6. When you factor in that Miroshnichenko and Leonard will be up likely by next year, Jarnkrok would simply be a waste of cap space for DC.