Next off-season assuming this season goes south

LISTE DE RÉSERVE	ANS	CAP HIT
Beck, Noah	2	775 000 $
Peterson, Dylan	2	775 000 $
Robertsson, Simon	3	775 000 $
Snuggerud, Jimmy	3	950 000 $

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Alexandrov, Nikita	2	1 250 000 $
Kessel, Matthew	2	775 000 $
Joseph, Pierre-Olivier	2	1 750 000 $

UFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Sundqvist, Oskar	3	1 500 000 $
Hanifin, Noah	7	7 000 000 $
Blais, Samuel	3	1 750 000 $

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	85 000 000 $	85 145 595 $	0 $	412 500 $	-145 595 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Schenn, Brayden 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ C, AG NTC UFA - 4	Thomas, Robert 8 125 000 $8 125 000 $ C, AD UFA - 7	Kyrou, Jordan 8 125 000 $8 125 000 $ AD UFA - 7
Neighbours, Jake 835 833 $835 833 $ AG, AD RFA - 1	Hayes, Kevin 3 571 429 $3 571 429 $ C M-NTC UFA - 2	Saad, Brandon 4 500 000 $4 500 000 $ AG, AD NTC UFA - 2
Blais, Samuel 1 750 000 $1 750 000 $ AG, AD UFA	Alexandrov, Nikita 1 250 000 $1 250 000 $ C RFA	Snuggerud, Jimmy 950 000 $950 000 $ AD, C RFA
Toropchenko, Alexey 1 250 000 $1 250 000 $ AG, AD RFA - 1	Eller, Lars 2 450 000 $2 450 000 $ C UFA - 1	Sundqvist, Oskar 1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ AD, C UFA - 2

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Hanifin, Noah 7 000 000 $7 000 000 $ DG UFA - 8	Parayko, Colton 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ DD NTC UFA - 6	Binnington, Jordan 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ G M-NTC UFA - 3
Krug, Torey 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ DG NTC UFA - 3	Faulk, Justin 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ DD NTC UFA - 3	Hofer, Joel 775 000 $775 000 $ G RFA - 1
Leddy, Nick 4 000 000 $4 000 000 $ DG NTC UFA - 2	Kessel, Matthew 775 000 $775 000 $ DD RFA - 2

28 août 2023 à 11 h 25

#1

brgh4life

Rejoint: juin 2019

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The Penguins are not paying that for a single season of Buchnevich. That's ridiculous.

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28 août 2023 à 11 h 30

#2

AC14

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Quoting: brgh4life

The Penguins are not paying that for a single season of Buchnevich. That's ridiculous.

It's with the assumption of extending for term. That being said, I did it primarily as a comparative to Timo Meier which was done at the deadline. I don't think POJ/Broz are really necessary nor is Eller. Eller was mainly for cap relief, not sure if it's necessary either.

You'd have to assume getting a legitimate 3 zone 1st line wing with term along with a young 4-7 defenseman is worth Pickering + assumed later 1st + later 2nd the following season.

28 août 2023 à 12 h 35

#3

SydBarrett

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No chance penguins make that trade lmao come on now. A 1st, a 2nd, three of our top four prospects, for a rental player? since when does a rental fetch that kind of return

28 août 2023 à 12 h 45

#4

AC14

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Quoting: pensburgh571

No chance penguins make that trade lmao come on now. A 1st, a 2nd, three of our top four prospects, for a rental player? since when does a rental fetch that kind of return

I lined out in the description the reasoning behind it. Yes it’s 3 of your better prospects. But with one of the worst pools in the league it’s pretty on par with exactly the Meier trade.

28 août 2023 à 12 h 56

#5

JSEB93

Rejoint: mai 2022

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Quoting: AC14

It's with the assumption of extending for term. That being said, I did it primarily as a comparative to Timo Meier which was done at the deadline. I don't think POJ/Broz are really necessary nor is Eller. Eller was mainly for cap relief, not sure if it's necessary either.

You'd have to assume getting a legitimate 3 zone 1st line wing with term along with a young 4-7 defenseman is worth Pickering + assumed later 1st + later 2nd the following season.

If you'd accept a return of a 1st, 2nd, and Pickering - I definitely think it would be worth consideration. But I know I'm a lot more "go all in" than a lot of Pens fans haha

28 août 2023 à 12 h 57

#6

Victor24

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Quoting: AC14

I lined out in the description the reasoning behind it. Yes it’s 3 of your better prospects. But with one of the worst pools in the league it’s pretty on par with exactly the Meier trade.

The problem is going to be with his role. He wouldn't be 1st LW with the Pens. Guentzel is (and will likely be resigned). So while your value is close (I also think it is too much), it would be unnecessary for the Pens to make that move.

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28 août 2023 à 13 h 5

#7

SydBarrett

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Quoting: AC14

I lined out in the description the reasoning behind it. Yes it’s 3 of your better prospects. But with one of the worst pools in the league it’s pretty on par with exactly the Meier trade.

Meier is not a good comparable at all. Hes several years younger and was an RFA. So the devils knew they could either resign him or flip him for a good return.
Buch would be a pure rental in pittsburgh so it would be lunacy to pay such a high price for a few months. Maybe add saad half retained and its closer to fair value.

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28 août 2023 à 13 h 11

#8

Hockeyfan1234

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Quoting: AC14

I lined out in the description the reasoning behind it. Yes it’s 3 of your better prospects. But with one of the worst pools in the league it’s pretty on par with exactly the Meier trade.

Buch isn’t comparable to Meier though. 1 Meier was younger. 2. Meier was an RFA and Buch will be a UFA. 3. The devils had their big names signed longterm so had the cap to re-sign Meier, whereas the pens have Guentzel then Crosby right after on top of having to re-sign Buch. 4. Buch may be a 2nd liner on the pens at best. Can’t see him playing 1st line. He’d be competing with Rust for 2nd line.

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28 août 2023 à 13 h 19

#9

AC14

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Quoting: Victor24

The problem is going to be with his role. He wouldn't be 1st LW with the Pens. Guentzel is (and will likely be resigned). So while your value is close (I also think it is too much), it would be unnecessary for the Pens to make that move.

This I can agree with. I did a pretty conservative cap check of it and they can both fit. They are different players and Buch can and has played all 3 forward positions effectively.

Buch is an all situations player who contributes at around a PPG mark. He’s been our best PKer which generally doesn’t say a lot but he’s at least above average in that regard. There’s a place for both of them and while it may not be on the same line it does create a second wave of scoring. Just by general estimations I’d expect them both to key in contract wise around the 7.5-8 AAV with term mark. It will fit with the contracts being a year spaced out and Smith expiring. The issue it would bring forth though would be if Crosby and Malkin retire how do you address the center position aside from Yaegar. I didn’t necessarily want to include Broz due to this, although I don’t reserve a lot of faith that he’ll be an answer in that department but it’s at least an option outside of Poulin or the free agency market

TLDR: Guentzel and Buch are such different players I don’t think their primary positions matter all that much esp given Buchs ability and experience on his off side.

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28 août 2023 à 13 h 26

#10

AC14

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Quoting: Hockeyfan1234

Buch isn’t comparable to Meier though. 1 Meier was younger. 2. Meier was an RFA and Buch will be a UFA. 3. The devils had their big names signed longterm so had the cap to re-sign Meier, whereas the pens have Guentzel then Crosby right after on top of having to re-sign Buch. 4. Buch may be a 2nd liner on the pens at best. Can’t see him playing 1st line. He’d be competing with Rust for 2nd line.

You really have to question who wins a competition between Buchnevich and Rust? Playing 1st line doesn’t necessarily matter. Playing top 6 and getting minutes does. Meier is younger yes, but he also probably commanded 500k more AAV to sign because of that. Meier was an RFA correct, but he also had a 10m qualifying offer attached to that which essentially negates the QO unless things go so south you’re tanking the next season. The general outcome is you’re planning on extending both players to term.

The penguins have their core signed for the most part. Crosby shouldn’t increase in AAV on his next contract if he doesn’t retire, same with Malkin. Guentzel will but him and Buchnevich are completely different players.

They most likely can fit both players in long term. It negates the need to go through an extended period of being awful while having Guentzel signed if they do extend him. Buchnevich also plays all 3 forward positions. He probably shouldn’t be counted on as a center but he has extensive time on both wings.

The comparison to Meier is a top line winger. Which Buchnevich has been since he came to STL. I don’t see a large discrepancy in age given they both have at least 5+ good years in them. Meier isn’t exactly brand new to the league. You know what you’re getting with him as you do with Buchnevich

28 août 2023 à 13 h 30

#11

AC14

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Quoting: JSEB93

If you'd accept a return of a 1st, 2nd, and Pickering - I definitely think it would be worth consideration. But I know I'm a lot more "go all in" than a lot of Pens fans haha

Honestly, I wouldn’t prefer to move him for the suggested package alone. I’d prefer for the team to bounce back this season and an extension be in place for him. I don’t have much faith in really any of the pieces coming back outside of the first in an event Pittsburgh collapses. Retention on Buch for a full season pretty much means we think it’s another sunk season which enters year 3 of sunk seasons. Pickering has a good draft pedigree but he hasn’t exactly showed a lot outside of that. His profile does show promise though. POJ isn’t a bad piece either, but I’m not sure he ends up being pretty much all offense or if there is more in there. All offense would hurt the Blues even more. It would just appear he’s a bit blocked in Pittsburgh.

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28 août 2023 à 14 h 33

#12

SydBarrett

Syd Barret

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Quoting: AC14

You really have to question who wins a competition between Buchnevich and Rust? Playing 1st line doesn’t necessarily matter. Playing top 6 and getting minutes does. Meier is younger yes, but he also probably commanded 500k more AAV to sign because of that. Meier was an RFA correct, but he also had a 10m qualifying offer attached to that which essentially negates the QO unless things go so south you’re tanking the next season. The general outcome is you’re planning on extending both players to term.

The penguins have their core signed for the most part. Crosby shouldn’t increase in AAV on his next contract if he doesn’t retire, same with Malkin. Guentzel will but him and Buchnevich are completely different players.

They most likely can fit both players in long term. It negates the need to go through an extended period of being awful while having Guentzel signed if they do extend him. Buchnevich also plays all 3 forward positions. He probably shouldn’t be counted on as a center but he has extensive time on both wings.

The comparison to Meier is a top line winger. Which Buchnevich has been since he came to STL. I don’t see a large discrepancy in age given they both have at least 5+ good years in them. Meier isn’t exactly brand new to the league. You know what you’re getting with him as you do with Buchnevich

One player was under control for beyond one season. One player is not. it is as simple as that. Which greatly effects their value. As has been shown time and time again throughout the history of the league.

28 août 2023 à 14 h 48

#13

JSEB93

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Quoting: AC14

Honestly, I wouldn’t prefer to move him for the suggested package alone. I’d prefer for the team to bounce back this season and an extension be in place for him. I don’t have much faith in really any of the pieces coming back outside of the first in an event Pittsburgh collapses. Retention on Buch for a full season pretty much means we think it’s another sunk season which enters year 3 of sunk seasons. Pickering has a good draft pedigree but he hasn’t exactly showed a lot outside of that. His profile does show promise though. POJ isn’t a bad piece either, but I’m not sure he ends up being pretty much all offense or if there is more in there. All offense would hurt the Blues even more. It would just appear he’s a bit blocked in Pittsburgh.

I gotcha. I was just going based on your comment - it sounded like you might be willing to just accept those 3 pieces in return. Which i think would be something the Pens should definitely consider. Buch is a fantastic player, great at all facets of the game. Getting him for 1 year at 2.9mil would be amazing - and if cap continues to go up they could probably re-sign him. But I get the hesitancy of Pens fans to not want to give up too many more future assets

Pickering definitely hasn't set the world on fire. Still probably a good chance he becomes a bottom 4 NHL defenseman I'd guess. I wouldn't expect great defense from POJ - although he spent a lot of time on 2nd pair last year and still had a pretty good season. So there's a bit of promise.

28 août 2023 à 14 h 58

#14

AC14

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Quoting: JSEB93

I gotcha. I was just going based on your comment - it sounded like you might be willing to just accept those 3 pieces in return. Which i think would be something the Pens should definitely consider. Buch is a fantastic player, great at all facets of the game. Getting him for 1 year at 2.9mil would be amazing - and if cap continues to go up they could probably re-sign him. But I get the hesitancy of Pens fans to not want to give up too many more future assets

Pickering definitely hasn't set the world on fire. Still probably a good chance he becomes a bottom 4 NHL defenseman I'd guess. I wouldn't expect great defense from POJ - although he spent a lot of time on 2nd pair last year and still had a pretty good season. So there's a bit of promise.

I guess what I was getting at is I personally don’t really like the return from this in general. There’s a lot of stuff just not hardly any substance, which is typical. There’s certainly some upside though. But the Blues and Armstrong generally do a fantastic job of rounding out lineups. Getting impact players is generally harder as we do spread cap pretty much throughout 6-8 players.

If it were as you suggested it wouldn’t be the end of the world assuming we couldn’t retain Buch or decided not to for some reason. A 1st + 2nd + Pickering is fairly in line with Horvats return and assuming it’s a rental esque scenario with retention and not a full season it’s more logical

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28 août 2023 à 15 h 22

#15

JSEB93

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Quoting: AC14

I guess what I was getting at is I personally don’t really like the return from this in general. There’s a lot of stuff just not hardly any substance, which is typical. There’s certainly some upside though. But the Blues and Armstrong generally do a fantastic job of rounding out lineups. Getting impact players is generally harder as we do spread cap pretty much throughout 6-8 players.

If it were as you suggested it wouldn’t be the end of the world assuming we couldn’t retain Buch or decided not to for some reason. A 1st + 2nd + Pickering is fairly in line with Horvats return and assuming it’s a rental esque scenario with retention and not a full season it’s more logical

Ah - I see what you're saying. Yeah - the return definitely doesn't have a guaranteed great player included - so I get that you don't love it. And obviously it's going to depend on what the Blues want to do moving forward - if they can retain him or not. Honestly I'd be kinda surprised if they felt the need to move him

But comparing it to the Meier and Horvat returns like you did - it doesn't seem too terrible. As you sort of mentioned.

28 août 2023 à 15 h 29

#16

Hockeyfan1234

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Quoting: AC14

You really have to question who wins a competition between Buchnevich and Rust? Playing 1st line doesn’t necessarily matter. Playing top 6 and getting minutes does. Meier is younger yes, but he also probably commanded 500k more AAV to sign because of that. Meier was an RFA correct, but he also had a 10m qualifying offer attached to that which essentially negates the QO unless things go so south you’re tanking the next season. The general outcome is you’re planning on extending both players to term.

The penguins have their core signed for the most part. Crosby shouldn’t increase in AAV on his next contract if he doesn’t retire, same with Malkin. Guentzel will but him and Buchnevich are completely different players.

They most likely can fit both players in long term. It negates the need to go through an extended period of being awful while having Guentzel signed if they do extend him. Buchnevich also plays all 3 forward positions. He probably shouldn’t be counted on as a center but he has extensive time on both wings.

The comparison to Meier is a top line winger. Which Buchnevich has been since he came to STL. I don’t see a large discrepancy in age given they both have at least 5+ good years in them. Meier isn’t exactly brand new to the league. You know what you’re getting with him as you do with Buchnevich

Well Rust plays so well with Crosby and Malkin. While he would also play well as a 3rd liner, he’d be a very expensive one. Meier having a 10 million QO didn’t disqualify him as an RFA or getting QO’d. The devils had the cap to do that. That’s the point. Next season the pens only have 18 million in cap space if the cap goes up the projected 4 million. Almost half of that should go to Guentzel. Now add to the fact that following year when Buch, Reilly Smith, Crosby, MP are all free agents on top of now needing another 3C and signing/re-signing some other lesser players like Ty Smith, DOC, Nylander, etc. The 4 big players I mentioned for the following year should take up about half of the expected cap room that year and gives the pens only 12 players signed with roughly 20 million in cap space. It’s just not really feasible unless they know for a fact Crosby will take a huge discount.

28 août 2023 à 15 h 50

#17

AC14

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Quoting: Hockeyfan1234

Well Rust plays so well with Crosby and Malkin. While he would also play well as a 3rd liner, he’d be a very expensive one. Meier having a 10 million QO didn’t disqualify him as an RFA or getting QO’d. The devils had the cap to do that. That’s the point. Next season the pens only have 18 million in cap space if the cap goes up the projected 4 million. Almost half of that should go to Guentzel. Now add to the fact that following year when Buch, Reilly Smith, Crosby, MP are all free agents on top of now needing another 3C and signing/re-signing some other lesser players like Ty Smith, DOC, Nylander, etc. The 4 big players I mentioned for the following year should take up about half of the expected cap room that year and gives the pens only 12 players signed with roughly 20 million in cap space. It’s just not really feasible unless they know for a fact Crosby will take a huge discount.

That's fair, not all 1st line players play the same amount of minutes as others though. That being said, I guess this all does become fairly moot if the Penguins are happy with what they get from Reilly Smith. One thing I did overlook is if MP would get a raise and I guess it's unfair to asume that Crosby would make the same or less going forward. I did a mock of the cap to check it with Buch resigning for 7.75 and Guentzel around 8.25 and it did work out with a few min contracts coming in and the rise of the cap to 85 which i felt was fair given the projected increase. I also didn't have the removal of Lars Eller in there and it did fit but again I don't know exact numbers. Cap wise i'm fairly certain it could still work. A team that's that loaded up and it being Pittsburgh should be able to draw cheap vets looking to chase a cup to add quality depth. But none of us really know true contract values so it certainly all could be moot.

Fwiw I'm not trying to advocate either team should do this or would. I just wanted to explore options in worst case scenario. I don't think that any of the pieces involved will really make any of us fans feel any better about losing many more good seasons of Buch who has been our best player, but it's certainly interesting to explore. Maybe meier is a bit high, but I would imagine Buch would get somewhere inbetween Meier and Horvat. Broz, POJ, and Eller/Tucker and the 5th and 7th were all to try and explore something very similar to the Meier trade which is what the Blues should shoot for given contract, production and it being for a full season vs a deadline rental.

28 août 2023 à 19 h 55

#18

Victor24

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Quoting: AC14

This I can agree with. I did a pretty conservative cap check of it and they can both fit. They are different players and Buch can and has played all 3 forward positions effectively.

Buch is an all situations player who contributes at around a PPG mark. He’s been our best PKer which generally doesn’t say a lot but he’s at least above average in that regard. There’s a place for both of them and while it may not be on the same line it does create a second wave of scoring. Just by general estimations I’d expect them both to key in contract wise around the 7.5-8 AAV with term mark. It will fit with the contracts being a year spaced out and Smith expiring. The issue it would bring forth though would be if Crosby and Malkin retire how do you address the center position aside from Yaegar. I didn’t necessarily want to include Broz due to this, although I don’t reserve a lot of faith that he’ll be an answer in that department but it’s at least an option outside of Poulin or the free agency market

TLDR: Guentzel and Buch are such different players I don’t think their primary positions matter all that much esp given Buchs ability and experience on his off side.

I do agree he would add a significant amount to the Pens but I don't think they need the help at winger. They need a #2 center so Malkin can go to LW and have less responsibility.

With a lesser package than this (not much lesser), the Pens could probably get Lindholm. He would be a better fit.

29 août 2023 à 0 h 11

#19

AC14

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Quoting: Victor24

I do agree he would add a significant amount to the Pens but I don't think they need the help at winger. They need a #2 center so Malkin can go to LW and have less responsibility.

With a lesser package than this (not much lesser), the Pens could probably get Lindholm. He would be a better fit.

Good point on Lindholm. I think the issue with Lindholm is centers are generally demanding more money and he doesn’t have the extra season at 2.9 that they’d pretty much need not this season but next. He probably overall is a better fit though. I don’t love Lindholm but I’m not naive enough to not realize he’s a really good player. I think that his contract however is going to be inflated by the season playing with Tkachuk and Geadreau but that doesn’t mean he’s still not a solid 2nd line center who realistically fits what I think the Pens lack a bit of and that’s two-way point producers outside of Crosby. I would agree it would be a lesser package, probably in the mold of Horvat. The only reason I bumped the price closer to that of Meier for Buchnevich is the full season proposed of control. It’s too late for the Flames to make an earth shattering deal like that this season until the deadline if the season is sunk. 2.9m in sunk cap for the Blues assuming they do consider moving Buch is palatable due to the ELCs they have projecting around that time frame as well as moving him is pretty much a signal for further and longer transition.

Thank you for the responses. I figured it would be fun to hear other opinions giving the pretty much worst case scenario for the Blues

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29 août 2023 à 10 h 40

#20

Victor24

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Quoting: AC14

Good point on Lindholm. I think the issue with Lindholm is centers are generally demanding more money and he doesn’t have the extra season at 2.9 that they’d pretty much need not this season but next. He probably overall is a better fit though. I don’t love Lindholm but I’m not naive enough to not realize he’s a really good player. I think that his contract however is going to be inflated by the season playing with Tkachuk and Geadreau but that doesn’t mean he’s still not a solid 2nd line center who realistically fits what I think the Pens lack a bit of and that’s two-way point producers outside of Crosby. I would agree it would be a lesser package, probably in the mold of Horvat. The only reason I bumped the price closer to that of Meier for Buchnevich is the full season proposed of control. It’s too late for the Flames to make an earth shattering deal like that this season until the deadline if the season is sunk. 2.9m in sunk cap for the Blues assuming they do consider moving Buch is palatable due to the ELCs they have projecting around that time frame as well as moving him is pretty much a signal for further and longer transition.

Thank you for the responses. I figured it would be fun to hear other opinions giving the pretty much worst case scenario for the Blues

Yeah, this has been a good conversation! 👍

In a vacuum, I would say Bush is a great fit for the Pens (or even most teams) and if they did want him and let Reily walk, they could use the money to resign him. Those are both great points by you.

If STL would take less and the Pens found their 2nd C in FA, I could see the Pens doing this next offseason. Would STL be interested in a 1st, POJ, and a 3rd? Or close to that?

29 août 2023 à 11 h 16

#21

AC14

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Quoting: Victor24

Yeah, this has been a good conversation! 👍

In a vacuum, I would say Bush is a great fit for the Pens (or even most teams) and if they did want him and let Reily walk, they could use the money to resign him. Those are both great points by you.

If STL would take less and the Pens found their 2nd C in FA, I could see the Pens doing this next offseason. Would STL be interested in a 1st, POJ, and a 3rd? Or close to that?

I don’t think so honestly. We have so many guys that would fit in that POJ range that it doesn’t make much since.

I’d assume that the bar minimum for a trade if it’s a pure deadline rental would have to be Pickering and a 1st. That’s still less than Horvat got not by much. A lot of it is subjective on how you view Pickering vs Raty

29 août 2023 à 12 h 37

#22

Victor24

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Quoting: AC14

I don’t think so honestly. We have so many guys that would fit in that POJ range that it doesn’t make much since.

I’d assume that the bar minimum for a trade if it’s a pure deadline rental would have to be Pickering and a 1st. That’s still less than Horvat got not by much. A lot of it is subjective on how you view Pickering vs Raty

That's fair. Perhaps another team would pay a 2nd for POJ and that could be used to aquire Bush. Idk.

Good talk!

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2024
2025
2026

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
MacEachern, Mackenzie 775 000 $775 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1
Joseph, Pierre-Olivier 1 750 000 $1 750 000 $ DG RFA
Bolduc, Zachary 863 333 $863 333 $ (412 500 $$412K) AG RFA - 2

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Forums/Armchair-GM

Description

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

Transactions

STL

PIT

STL

NYI

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Code d'intégration

Texte intégré

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