He obviously wouldn't sign such an extension

Agreed

Comps ought to be

Boldy $7m x 7 years
Cozens $7.1m x 7 years
Svechnikov $7.75m x 8 years
Keller $7.15m x 8 years
Konecny $5.5m x 6 years
Connor $7.14m x 7 years
Ehlers $6m x 7 years

Boldy - 89 gp, 0.76 ppg
Cozens - 169 gp, 0.56 ppg
Svechnikov - 205 gp, 0.68 ppg
Keller - 164 gp, 0.68 ppg
Konecny - 233 gp, 0.53 ppg
Connor - 178 gp, 0.72 ppg
Ehlers - 154 gp, 0.66 ppg

Mercer - 164 gp, 0.60 ppg

On long term deal....he is likely getting between $6.75m and 7.25m

Troy Terry just signed 7x7 and has a 38 goal season under his belt, and 61 points in just 70 games last season.

Troy Terry post draft years 1-3: 2 games, 0 points
Dawson mercer post draft years 1-3: 164 games, 98 points

Congratz on him getting that one time in his career. He has score 20+ TWICE in his career which is about 5 years.

Terry will be 26 when he starts playing under that deal. He signed a 3 year bridge in 2020.

Mercer is 21. And will be his first RFA deal.

UFA dollars always more expensive than RFA dollars.

Balance it out with….age. Terry will be well into his 30’s on back side of that deal. While Mercer could go 7 more seasons in his 20s.

Market value is probably 7x7. Could see him at 6-6.5 if Fitzy is able to convince him to take a slight discount

Mercer is Younger, has much better Defensive play, and has put up good numbers in earlier years on a better deeper team that isn't always playing against other teams back ups.

7x7 would be a steal for Mercer, with the Cap going up by as much as 5M next off season he would likely start in the 8s.

As everybody else is saying, Mercer will be 6.5-7 mil maybe more because of the cap spike and salaries are always based on the cap% at signing and not the actual dollar amount. I think Fitz can sell him on 6.5 but its going to be a hard sell

Like most are saying it's looking more like $7M for comparables today.

With the hyper inflation that is expected with the cap, that could easily be $8-$8.5 if the deal isn't done soon. The cap is artificially deflated due to COVID. If the game does not grow at all and there is no monetary inflation in the next 2-3 years it STILL would go up by $10 million in that time. It's at $83.5M and projects to $93M in 2 years. Start slapping a $1M on these estimates in the $6+ range.