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Bouchard

Créé par: Pens9187
Équipe: 2023-24 Penguins de Pittsburgh
Date de création initiale: 3 août 2023
Publié: 3 août 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
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Bouchard, Evan7 000 000 $
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    3 août 2023 à 8 h 57
    #1
    Pop Pop
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    If we could just dump Chairot for nothing we'd do it ourselves, we don't really want Petry we just want him instead of Chairot.
    aedoran, CD282 et Warpbox a aimé ceci.
    3 août 2023 à 9 h 16
    #2
    PDG over PDO
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    Canucks pass
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    3 août 2023 à 9 h 44
    #3
    CCM46
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    Don't get me wrong I like Bouchard and think he's probably valued at about close to 6 mil on the open market currently....... however that is a lot to give up for a 23 year old OFD whose numbers are slightly inflated due to the 97 and 29 factor from Edmonton.
    3 août 2023 à 9 h 55
    #4
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    You realize Chiarot also has a M-NTC and would decline AZ.
    3 août 2023 à 10 h 0
    #5
    Banni
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    Detroit passes, We've zero need to Petry right now. That ship has sailed.
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    3 août 2023 à 11 h 21
    #6
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    Quoting: Jfstompers
    If we could just dump Chairot for nothing we'd do it ourselves, we don't really want Petry we just want him instead of Chairot.


    Quoting: MoSeider53
    Detroit passes, We've zero need to Petry right now. That ship has sailed.

    Petry to Detroit!
    Petry to Detroit!
    Petry to Detroit!
    Petry to Detroit!
    Petry to Detroit!

    It's like the Pittsburgh fans share a brain
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    3 août 2023 à 11 h 41
    #7
    Buffbry
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    Wings pass, lalonde and Yzerman like Ben and didn't trade for Jeff for a reason
    3 août 2023 à 11 h 45
    #8
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    Quoting: CCM46
    Don't get me wrong I like Bouchard and think he's probably valued at about close to 6 mil on the open market currently....... however that is a lot to give up for a 23 year old OFD whose numbers are slightly inflated due to the 97 and 29 factor from Edmonton.

    His 5v5 numbers aren't inflated due to McDavid and Draisaitl, and he only played on the PP1 for the last 20 games or so.

    But keep beating the drum, I don't want other teams to know just how good Bouchard really is.
    3 août 2023 à 13 h 8
    #9
    CCM46
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    Quoting: CD282
    His 5v5 numbers aren't inflated due to McDavid and Draisaitl, and he only played on the PP1 for the last 20 games or so.

    But keep beating the drum, I don't want other teams to know just how good Bouchard really is.


    In what part did I say I don't think he's good (Newsflash he is and has a long nhl career ahead of him)........ anyone who plays with 97 and 29 on the ice together in any situation is going to have inflated numbers because they're literally the best two offensive players in the league if you don't think so you're crazy.......... Additionally, I said slightly inflated which is different from the word "drastically" which is the term I would use to describe Hyman's numbers when he started playing with key offensive talent like Matthews in Toronto and Mcdavid and Draisaitl in Edmonton.


    I just don't think he's your first 3 draft picks in this years draft good...... especially when you're going to be going down the rebuild road the Pens are headed down sooner rather than later. For them, quantity and sacrificing some quality is better than quality and sacrificing quantity.
    3 août 2023 à 16 h 3
    #10
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    Quoting: CCM46
    In what part did I say I don't think he's good (Newsflash he is and has a long nhl career ahead of him)........ anyone who plays with 97 and 29 on the ice together in any situation is going to have inflated numbers because they're literally the best two offensive players in the league if you don't think so you're crazy.......... Additionally, I said slightly inflated which is different from the word "drastically" which is the term I would use to describe Hyman's numbers when he started playing with key offensive talent like Matthews in Toronto and Mcdavid and Draisaitl in Edmonton.

    "Slightly inflated" is still incorrect though. Bouchard's 5v5 P/60 was slightly higher with McDavid and Draisaitl on the bench than it was with them on the ice.

    Bouchard overall: 1.21 P/60 in 1234:46
    Bouchard w/97: 1.19 in 452:58
    Bouchard w/29: 1.11 in 377:31
    3 août 2023 à 16 h 50
    #11
    CCM46
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    Quoting: CD282
    "Slightly inflated" is still incorrect though. Bouchard's 5v5 P/60 was slightly higher with McDavid and Draisaitl on the bench than it was with them on the ice.

    Bouchard overall: 1.21 P/60 in 1234:46
    Bouchard w/97: 1.19 in 452:58
    Bouchard w/29: 1.11 in 377:31


    You do realize the overall includes his numbers with 97 and 29 right? Like to get a fair comparison you need to do p/60 w/o 97 and w/o 29 and w/o 97 and 29.
    3 août 2023 à 17 h 18
    #12
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    Quoting: CCM46
    You do realize the overall includes his numbers with 97 and 29 right? Like to get a fair comparison you need to do p/60 w/o 97 and w/o 29 and w/o 97 and 29.

    I do realize that. But given his overall numbers are already better than the "with" numbers, the "without" can only go in one direction - up. So I didn't bother working out what they were exactly, I figured I'd given enough information that you could draw logical conclusions, but apparently not. shakes head
    4 août 2023 à 8 h 8
    #13
    CCM46
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    Quoting: CD282
    I do realize that. But given his overall numbers are already better than the "with" numbers, the "without" can only go in one direction - up. So I didn't bother working out what they were exactly, I figured I'd given enough information that you could draw logical conclusions, but apparently not. shakes head


    That is not how numbers work in terms of averaging out....... when you are adding up the overall numbers having McDavid's and Draisaitl's is going to increase the overall including them you have to do the without to actually show what it is without....... learn how math works before trying to act like you're all knowing bud. Case and point if you have a 5 numbers 5,7,8,10, and 15 the average is 9 take away the 10 and 15 and the average becomes 6.66667. So, no the without numbers can not only go one direction and you should work out what they actually are because it does matter to your theory here bud.
    4 août 2023 à 8 h 16
    #14
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    Quoting: CCM46
    That is not how numbers work in terms of averaging out....... when you are adding up the overall numbers having McDavid's and Draisaitl's is going to increase the overall including them you have to do the without to actually show what it is without....... learn how math works before trying to act like you're all knowing bud. Case and point if you have a 5 numbers 5,7,8,10, and 15 the average is 9 take away the 10 and 15 and the average becomes 6.66667. So, no the without numbers can not only go one direction and you should work out what they actually are because it does matter to your theory here bud.

    If you're so concerned, why don't you work them out yourself? I gave you enough information. Do the math.
    4 août 2023 à 8 h 26
    #15
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    Quoting: CD282
    If you're so concerned, why don't you work them out yourself? I gave you enough information. Do the math.


    Why should I do the work to prove your point???? That would be like me telling you that the sky is blue and then telling you to do the work to prove its not the case. If you want to make a claim and state its factual have all the facts to back it up don't shortcut its not how things work.
    4 août 2023 à 9 h 17
    #16
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    Quoting: CCM46
    Why should I do the work to prove your point???? That would be like me telling you that the sky is blue and then telling you to do the work to prove its not the case. If you want to make a claim and state its factual have all the facts to back it up don't shortcut its not how things work.

    I gave you the facts already. There's enough information there, I'm sorry that you can't figure out math and logic on your own. **** school system.

    Look, I'll walk you through it. Here's the information I posted earlier:

    Quote:
    Bouchard overall: 1.21 P/60 in 1234:46
    Bouchard w/97: 1.19 in 452:58
    Bouchard w/29: 1.11 in 377:31


    The OVERALL line: if we take 1.21, divide by 60 (the "/" means divide) and multiply the result by 1234:46 we see that Bouchard scored 25 points at 5v5 overall.
    The W/97 line: 1.19, divide by 60, multiply by 452:58 we see that Bouchard scored 9 points with McDavid in the ice.
    The W/29 line: 1.11, divide by 60, multiply by 337:31 we see that Bouchard scored 5 points with Draisaitl on the ice.

    Now here's the magic bit: we can take away the "w/97" numbers from the "overall" numbers to see how Bouchard performed without his all-world teammates! Like this:

    For TOI, 1234:46 minus 452:58 equals 781:48. That's how much time Bouchard played when McDavid was not on the ice. Now we take points, 25 minus 9 equals 16. That's how many points Bouchard scored when McDavid was not on the ice.

    Now we reverse the previous equation like so: 16 points, divided by 781:48, multiplied by 60 = 1.23 P/60.

    Neat, eh? So Bouchard scored slightly better without McDavid (1.23) than he did with McDavid (1.19).

    It's very simple math, really. Do you want me to do the Draisaitl calculations for you too, or do you think you can manage those on your own?
    4 août 2023 à 9 h 40
    #17
    CCM46
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    Quoting: CD282
    I gave you the facts already. There's enough information there, I'm sorry that you can't figure out math and logic on your own. **** school system.

    Look, I'll walk you through it. Here's the information I posted earlier:



    The OVERALL line: if we take 1.21, divide by 60 (the "/" means divide) and multiply the result by 1234:46 we see that Bouchard scored 25 points at 5v5 overall.
    The W/97 line: 1.19, divide by 60, multiply by 452:58 we see that Bouchard scored 9 points with McDavid in the ice.
    The W/29 line: 1.11, divide by 60, multiply by 337:31 we see that Bouchard scored 5 points with Draisaitl on the ice.

    Now here's the magic bit: we can take away the "w/97" numbers from the "overall" numbers to see how Bouchard performed without his all-world teammates! Like this:

    For TOI, 1234:46 minus 452:58 equals 781:48. That's how much time Bouchard played when McDavid was not on the ice. Now we take points, 25 minus 9 equals 16. That's how many points Bouchard scored when McDavid was not on the ice.

    Now we reverse the previous equation like so: 16 points, divided by 781:48, multiplied by 60 = 1.23 P/60.

    Neat, eh? So Bouchard scored slightly better without McDavid (1.23) than he did with McDavid (1.19).

    It's very simple math, really. Do you want me to do the Draisaitl calculations for you too, or do you think you can manage those on your own?


    Quoting: CD282
    I gave you the facts already. There's enough information there, I'm sorry that you can't figure out math and logic on your own. **** school system.

    Look, I'll walk you through it. Here's the information I posted earlier:



    The OVERALL line: if we take 1.21, divide by 60 (the "/" means divide) and multiply the result by 1234:46 we see that Bouchard scored 25 points at 5v5 overall.
    The W/97 line: 1.19, divide by 60, multiply by 452:58 we see that Bouchard scored 9 points with McDavid in the ice.
    The W/29 line: 1.11, divide by 60, multiply by 337:31 we see that Bouchard scored 5 points with Draisaitl on the ice.

    Now here's the magic bit: we can take away the "w/97" numbers from the "overall" numbers to see how Bouchard performed without his all-world teammates! Like this:

    For TOI, 1234:46 minus 452:58 equals 781:48. That's how much time Bouchard played when McDavid was not on the ice. Now we take points, 25 minus 9 equals 16. That's how many points Bouchard scored when McDavid was not on the ice.

    Now we reverse the previous equation like so: 16 points, divided by 781:48, multiplied by 60 = 1.23 P/60.

    Neat, eh? So Bouchard scored slightly better without McDavid (1.23) than he did with McDavid (1.19).

    It's very simple math, really. Do you want me to do the Draisaitl calculations for you too, or do you think you can manage those on your own?


    Homeboy again while this proves numbers without them on the ice there is still one factor missing........ try p/60 with both 97 and 29 on the ice... Also roughly more than half of his point total 5v5 came with 97 and 29 on the ice. That's not including his numbers where it wasn't 5v5 which accounts for another 15 points of his that more than likely 97 and 29 were on the ice for because 13 of those were powerplay points 1 at even strength ( not 5v5) 1 shorthanded. So, given more than half of his point share is with 97 and 29 on the ice at the same time how are his numbers not inflated by them?
    4 août 2023 à 9 h 43
    #18
    CCM46
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    Quoting: CCM46
    Homeboy again while this proves numbers without them on the ice there is still one factor missing........ try p/60 with both 97 and 29 on the ice... Also roughly more than half of his point total 5v5 came with 97 and 29 on the ice. That's not including his numbers where it wasn't 5v5 which accounts for another 15 points of his that more than likely 97 and 29 were on the ice for because 13 of those were powerplay points 1 at even strength ( not 5v5) 1 shorthanded. So, given more than half of his point share is with 97 and 29 on the ice at the same time how are his numbers not inflated by them?


    For the final time, I am not saying Bouchard is bad by any means I think he is going to have a long and very good NHL career... All I'm saying is when you spend more than half of your ice time with 97 and 29 you're numbers are going to be slightly higher than they would be without given the same circumstances of who is on the ice defending in those situations.
    4 août 2023 à 10 h 22
    #19
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    Quoting: CCM46
    Homeboy again while this proves numbers without them on the ice there is still one factor missing........ try p/60 with both 97 and 29 on the ice...

    I don't have that information, NST doesn't provide individual line stats. But the only net result here is that some of the "with" points were double counted rendering your next point meaningless:

    Quoting: CCM46
    Also roughly more than half of his point total 5v5 came with 97 and 29 on the ice.

    By simply adding 9 + 5, you're assuming that there was no shared points (I.e. points scored by Bouchard when both McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice), which isn't intelligent. And yes, 14 is more than half of 25, its 56%. But then by the same token you should show that adding the two TOI numbers indicates he spent 64% of his TOI with the two best players in the world. Which means, wait for it, that he got 44% of his points in the 36% of the time he wasn't with either!

    Quoting: CCM46
    That's not including his numbers where it wasn't 5v5 which accounts for another 15 points of his that more than likely 97 and 29 were on the ice for because 13 of those were powerplay points 1 at even strength ( not 5v5) 1 shorthanded. So, given more than half of his point share is with 97 and 29 on the ice at the same time how are his numbers not inflated by them?

    Read back. I stated that his 5v5 point totals were not inflated by playing with McDavid and Draisaitl. Which I proved to be factually correct. Of course his PP points are influenced by the other players on the ice, that's true of every player everywhere and proves nothing one way or another.

    Here's something to consider though: how well McDavid + Draisaitl scored at 5v4 with Bouchard vs without. Here are Edmonton's full year 5v4 stats for their 1st unit.

    McDavid + Draisaitl w/o Bouchard: 15.42 GF/60 (on ice)
    McDavid + Draisaitl with Bouchard: 16.39 GF/60 (on ice)

    So McDavid and Draisaitl benefited from Bouchard's presence too - it improved their results by nearly a full goal per hour. That's what happens when you put great players together.

    Their xGF/60 went from 10.46 to 12.44 when Bouchard joined the PP. Best PP in the league by far, and Evan Bouchard clearly deserves some of the credit.
    4 août 2023 à 11 h 12
    #20
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    Quoting: CD282
    I don't have that information, NST doesn't provide individual line stats. But the only net result here is that some of the "with" points were double counted rendering your next point meaningless:


    By simply adding 9 + 5, you're assuming that there was no shared points (I.e. points scored by Bouchard when both McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice), which isn't intelligent. And yes, 14 is more than half of 25, its 56%. But then by the same token you should show that adding the two TOI numbers indicates he spent 64% of his TOI with the two best players in the world. Which means, wait for it, that he got 44% of his points in the 36% of the time he wasn't with either!


    Read back. I stated that his 5v5 point totals were not inflated by playing with McDavid and Draisaitl. Which I proved to be factually correct. Of course his PP points are influenced by the other players on the ice, that's true of every player everywhere and proves nothing one way or another.

    Here's something to consider though: how well McDavid + Draisaitl scored at 5v4 with Bouchard vs without. Here are Edmonton's full year 5v4 stats for their 1st unit.

    McDavid + Draisaitl w/o Bouchard: 15.42 GF/60 (on ice)
    McDavid + Draisaitl with Bouchard: 16.39 GF/60 (on ice)

    So McDavid and Draisaitl benefited from Bouchard's presence too - it improved their results by nearly a full goal per hour. That's what happens when you put great players together.

    Their xGF/60 went from 10.46 to 12.44 when Bouchard joined the PP. Best PP in the league by far, and Evan Bouchard clearly deserves some of the credit.


    Aight, first I never stated full heartedly that more than half his points 5v5 were scored with 97 and 29 on the ice, I said roughly more than because as you sated thinking there were no shared points 5v5 with both players on the ice is asinine because McDavid and Draisaitl were deployed together about 50% of the time they were each on the ice.... given that lets assume have the points are shared for a total of 7 points or half of the 14 with McDavid scoring more w/ Bouch w/o Drai than Drai did w/ Bouch w/o McD given the original p/60 w/ each (fair assesment?) meaning Mcdavid had 5 unshared points and Drai had 2 (Again fair Assesment?). Now using the NST linemates feature I can conclude that Bouchard spent 139:21 w/97 and 29, 313:37 w/97 w/0 29, 238:10 w/ 29 w/o 97, and 543:37 w/o 97 and 29. Now lets do the math and see how it turns out okay?
    7 points w/ 97 and 29 in 139:21 of ice time is a 3.014 P/60
    5 points w/ 97 w/o 29 is .95 p/60
    2 points w/29 w/o 97 is .50 p/60
    11 points w/o 97 and 29 is 1.21p/60

    So, while he is better on is own individually with only one of 97 and 29 on the ice........ my point stands when sharing the ice with both 97 and 29 it inflates the numbers
    4 août 2023 à 11 h 36
    #21
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    Quoting: CCM46
    Aight, first I never stated full heartedly that more than half his points 5v5 were scored with 97 and 29 on the ice, I said roughly more than because as you sated thinking there were no shared points 5v5 with both players on the ice is asinine because McDavid and Draisaitl were deployed together about 50% of the time they were each on the ice.... given that lets assume have the points are shared for a total of 7 points or half of the 14 with McDavid scoring more w/ Bouch w/o Drai than Drai did w/ Bouch w/o McD given the original p/60 w/ each (fair assesment?) meaning Mcdavid had 5 unshared points and Drai had 2 (Again fair Assesment?). Now using the NST linemates feature I can conclude that Bouchard spent 139:21 w/97 and 29, 313:37 w/97 w/0 29, 238:10 w/ 29 w/o 97, and 543:37 w/o 97 and 29. Now lets do the math and see how it turns out okay?
    7 points w/ 97 and 29 in 139:21 of ice time is a 3.014 P/60
    5 points w/ 97 w/o 29 is .95 p/60
    2 points w/29 w/o 97 is .50 p/60
    11 points w/o 97 and 29 is 1.21p/60

    So, while he is better on is own individually with only one of 97 and 29 on the ice........ my point stands when sharing the ice with both 97 and 29 it inflates the numbers

    Your point doesn't stand on anything, it's pure assumption. None of the publicly available stats support your hypothesis, all you've proved is that it could have happened. The statistics show that it's unlikely.
    4 août 2023 à 11 h 57
    #22
    CCM46
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    Quoting: CD282
    Your point doesn't stand on anything, it's pure assumption. None of the publicly available stats support your hypothesis, all you've proved is that it could have happened. The statistics show that it's unlikely.


    How do the statistics show it was unlikely when Draisaitl and McDavid had 153 pts and 128 pts when the next closest in the entire league was 113 points 15 behind Draisaitl and 40 behind McDavid that his numbers 5v5 when both were on the ice with him would not be 3x that of when he is without them?

    And while it is assumption it is based on the numbers which is a safer assumption than just pulling it out of a hat but if you want to get super technical..... 30% of McDavid's TOI w/ Bouch was shared with 29 and 40% of Draisaitl's TOI w/ Bouch was shared with 97. Given that 3 of Mcdavid's points would've been shared with Drai and 2 of Drai's points would've been shared w/ 97. Making the total 5 points w/97 and 29, 6 w/ 97 w/o 29, 3 w/ 29 w/o 97 ( a much fairer and numbers driven assumption based completely on numbers and not speculation). So to update the numbers above:
    5 points w/ 97 and 29 for 2.15 p/60
    6 points w 97 w/o 29 for 1.15 p/60
    3 points w/ 29 w/0 97 for .75 p/60
    11 points w/o 97 and 29 is 1.21p/60

    Brings the w 97 and 29 numbers down, but bringing the numbers with each individually up to be closer to his numbers without which is a fair representation of what is probably closest to the actual numbers. No its not perfect, but its about as close as it can be.
    4 août 2023 à 12 h 18
    #23
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    Quoting: CCM46
    How do the statistics show it was unlikely when Draisaitl and McDavid had 153 pts and 128 pts when the next closest in the entire league was 113 points 15 behind Draisaitl and 40 behind McDavid that his numbers 5v5 when both were on the ice with him would not be 3x that of when he is without them?

    And while it is assumption it is based on the numbers which is a safer assumption than just pulling it out of a hat but if you want to get super technical..... 30% of McDavid's TOI w/ Bouch was shared with 29 and 40% of Draisaitl's TOI w/ Bouch was shared with 97. Given that 3 of Mcdavid's points would've been shared with Drai and 2 of Drai's points would've been shared w/ 97. Making the total 5 points w/97 and 29, 6 w/ 97 w/o 29, 3 w/ 29 w/o 97 ( a much fairer and numbers driven assumption based completely on numbers and not speculation). So to update the numbers above:
    5 points w/ 97 and 29 for 2.15 p/60
    6 points w 97 w/o 29 for 1.15 p/60
    3 points w/ 29 w/0 97 for .75 p/60
    11 points w/o 97 and 29 is 1.21p/60

    Brings the w 97 and 29 numbers down, but bringing the numbers with each individually up to be closer to his numbers without which is a fair representation of what is probably closest to the actual numbers. No its not perfect, but its about as close as it can be.

    Their on ice GF numbers show that your assumptions are highly unlikely. All numbers are 5v5.

    McDavid + Draisaitl + Bouchard = 4.31 GF/60
    McDavid (-Draisaitl) + Bouchard = 3.44 GF/60
    (-McDavid) Draisaitl + Bouchard = 3.53 GF/60

    The there's no more than 25% variance between these on ice results. You're suggesting that there could be a nearly 300% variance in Bouchard's individual scoring within that framework? Highly unlikely.
    4 août 2023 à 13 h 9
    #24
    CCM46
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    Modifié 4 août 2023 à 13 h 18
    Quoting: CD282
    Their on ice GF numbers show that your assumptions are highly unlikely. All numbers are 5v5.

    McDavid + Draisaitl + Bouchard = 4.31 GF/60
    McDavid (-Draisaitl) + Bouchard = 3.44 GF/60
    (-McDavid) Draisaitl + Bouchard = 3.53 GF/60

    The there's no more than 25% variance between these on ice results. You're suggesting that there could be a nearly 300% variance in Bouchard's individual scoring within that framework? Highly unlikely.


    You realize that goals for equivalates all 5 players on the ice meaning the 3 of them do not have to factor into the goal at all they just have to be on the ice....... so why compare apples to oranges mate....

    Like I said way back I'm not in no way saying Bouchard is not a good player in anyway shape or form (only an idiot who doesn't know hockey would say that). I am only saying his numbers are slightly (meaning not a lot) increased by having the ability to play with the two best offensively gifted players in the NHL. You're just acting like that's a crazy statement when its not I mean do you think that the people who got to play with Gretzky and Lemieux didn't have their number slightly increase as well?
     
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