Helly comes with a 5x7.5 extension with a full NTC and NMC (mostly comparable to sorokin but drops as he ages):
Y1: 9.5M
Y2: 9M
Y3: 8M
Y4: 6M
Y5: 5M
The best comparable to a helly trade is the Ryan miller trade years ago. Let’s take Ryan miller for example then, even though while miller was good, he was no hellebuyck.
Miller with Ott (bottom 6 player) returned:
1st, 3rd, jaroslav halak (young 1a goaltender), Chris Stewart (middle 6 player), William carrier (recent 2nd rounder). Taking the value drop off from middle-six to bottom-six as a 3rd, let’s simplify: 1st, 3rd (x2), halak, recent 2nd rounder.
Let’s break it down piece by piece. 1st Miller>1st helly (might be 2025 cause of Meier trade conditions). Halak > vanacek. However, let’s just say equal for both for the sake of simplicity. Then the remaining value is: 2 3rds and a recent 2nd rounder.
Now, helly is coming with a pre-negotiated extension and is better than miller and younger at the time of the trade. The jets are also retaining. That has to be worth a fair bit in todays cap. Therefore, instead of 2 3rds, I made it a second and third and daws. And the recent 2nd rounder is Casey.
Anaheim’s d-core is awful and if they want to move Gibson, they need to give him something to help boost his numbers. Gudas and schmidt could form a solid pair and then Stanley on the 3rd pair with a prospect/waiver claim/depth guy would be much better as well. Obviously, just cause it would be good for the ducks doesn’t mean they just take on the cap. Therefore, the jets move Stanley and a 3rd to balance out.
Chisholm for regula is simply to get an asset back. Chisholm unfortunately probably has little value to nhl teams and I don’t see him making the team over heinola (who is a more skilled/finished product imo). Therefore, moving him for a guy more likely to pass through waivers in regula is my preference. He would hopefully go down and then be ready to be called up when needed. If regula does get claimed, we would have lost chisholm anyway so no harm really. However, It is important to note I have regula staying on the roster.
I do think this team makes the playoffs and schiefele ends up staying. I also think demelo and Nino extensions get announced in the year. However, if the jets are missing the playoffs, move Dillon and brossiot to the highest bidders. If schiefele, demelo, and nino won’t sign, move them too. Also shop Iaffalo and Pionk just to see what’s out there.
Way too much for Hellebuyck. I don't know that they'd move Casey, and if they did you wouldn't get nearly this much
I value Casey as a top prospect, not a typical second rounder
Hmm interesting. Tbh I don’t, which is why I have him here. Maybe replace with their second best prospect then? Lol. Tbh, he’s just a placeholder. Solid player who has some potential.
Also, as I showed based on previous trade history, this is how much it costs to get a starting goaltender long term. And if you look at it, a late 1st, 2nd, and 3rd + daws, vanacek and a former 2nd is crazy when you are getting a vezina winner back. I didn’t ask for holtz.
Hmm interesting. Tbh I don’t, which is why I have him here. Maybe replace with their second best prospect then? Lol. Tbh, he’s just a placeholder. Solid player who has some potential.
Also, as I showed based on previous trade history, this is how much it costs.
There are five prospects I would not move: Hughes, Nemec, Holtz, Casey, and Schmid. I would move any other prospect along with Vanecek and a 1st. Gritsyuk is the best prospect I would move, but since he's 21 (2019 draft) and will be in the KHL for 2 more years I'm not sure he's of interest even though he's a great prospect. That leaves Hameenaho, Foote, Vilen, and Clarke as the rest of my personal top 10. Of them, Hameenaho has the highest upside and Foote is the most NHL ready.
Edit: Thinking further, I don't think I'd send a 1st along with Gritsyuk but again I don't think he's a good trade piece until he comes to NA
These are the type of moves that the jets need to make, Regula’s a right d, which we need, after drafting Milic and Dom, Daws has no value to us, and he’ll sit on LTIR for half the season, Casey would be great but with him in a Helle trade your best scenario is Vanecek, Casey and a 2nd. A team like Anaheim with tons of cap space and youngsters would be glad to take Schmidty for free for a veteran presence, but I think for our shake we need to keep him atleast this season to help the room
There are five prospects I would not move: Hughes, Nemec, Holtz, Casey, and Schmid. I would move any other prospect along with Vanecek and a 1st. Gritsyuk is the best prospect I would move, but since he's 21 (2019 draft) and will be in the KHL for 2 more years I'm not sure he's of interest even though he's a great prospect. That leaves Hameenaho, Foote, Vilen, and Clarke as the rest of my personal top 10. Of them, Hameenaho has the highest upside and Foote is the most NHL ready.
The lowest I would sell helly (cause market value) is replace Casey with Gritsyuk or Hameenaho. That being said, having the entire top 5 of your prospect pool as untouchable when you are trading for a top 3 goaltender isn’t exactly realistic. I can understand it for the top 4, but Casey is someone Fitzgerald will probably be open to moving. Just my opinion.
1) no one is paying extra for the extension when he has said he is leaving.
2) Ryan Miller trade is textbook example why teams don’t spend for a top goalie mid-season.
The lowest I would sell helly (cause market value) is replace Casey with Gritsyuk or Hameenaho. That being said, having the entire top 5 of your prospect pool as untouchable when you are trading for a top 3 goaltender isn’t exactly realistic. I can understand it for the top 4, but Casey is someone Fitzgerald will probably be open to moving. Just my opinion.
The other reason I wouldn't trade Casey is that he's a small defenseman, so if I'm Fitz trading him, odds are the other GM is gonna think less of Casey than me, the same reason he fell to 46. It would be more shrewd to trade a different prospect that the typical GM would be higher on. See Mukhamadullin and Okhotiuk in the Meier trade.
These are the type of moves that the jets need to make, Regula’s a right d, which we need, after drafting Milic and Dom, Daws has no value to us, and he’ll sit on LTIR for half the season, Casey would be great but with him in a Helle trade your best scenario is Vanecek, Casey and a 2nd. A team like Anaheim with tons of cap space and youngsters would be glad to take Schmidty for free for a veteran presence, but I think for our shake we need to keep him atleast this season to help the room
Thanks! I think daws would be a good fit since he can step into the backup role next year while milic and dom develop. That’s my opinion. As for being on LTIR half the season, ehlers also is but we don’t say that. I’m going for potential here and daws has some I think.
I don’t understand the Casey high (like he’s good but not to the level I’m understanding others think imo). But I can downgrade the prospect as explained above. I’m okay with that.
I’d like to play heinola and Dillon can play a solid leadership role and is a bigger leader than schmidt. I’d move schmidt if I had the chance to play heinola.
1) no one is paying extra for the extension when he has said he is leaving.
2) Ryan Miller trade is textbook example why teams don’t spend for a top goalie mid-season.
Lol fit his whole cap then. Or get another team to retain. See how that fairs. Fact is that it’s a flat cap world and retention will be worth a pretty penny
Sure, maybe. It’s not really mid season but I’ll take the point. That being said, it doesn’t change the market value. This is the closest example we have to a helly trade.
Thanks! I think daws would be a good fit since he can step into the backup role next year while milic and dom develop. That’s my opinion. As for being on LTIR half the season, ehlers also is but we don’t say that. I’m going for potential here and daws has some I think.
I don’t understand the Casey high (like he’s good but not to the level I’m understanding others think imo). But I can downgrade the prospect as explained above. I’m okay with that.
I’d like to play heinola and Dillon can play a solid leadership role and is a bigger leader than schmidt. I’d move schmidt if I had the chance to play heinola.
I think Dillon should replace Schiefele as Assistant Captain next season
The other reason I wouldn't trade Casey is that he's a small defenseman, so if I'm Fitz trading him, odds are the other GM is gonna think less of Casey than me, the same reason he fell to 46. It would be more shrewd to trade a different prospect that the typical GM would be higher on. See Mukhamadullin and Okhotiuk in the Meier trade.
That’s fair. That’s the main reason I’m not high on him. If he was 6’1, I’d have him as the centrepiece.
I think thats way too much for Helle, way way too much.
There just isn't much of a market for him, honestly NJ might be the only team that there's a fit for him, with possibly just one team in the running means they're not likely to overpay for him.
Also the Devils GM doesn't seem like an idiot, he isn't gonna get taken.
whatever is the current version of slightly better than 1st round pick and Vyacheslav Kozlov (Hasek trade). Add a piece for retention. Not hardly 6 pcs.
whatever is the current version of slightly better than 1st round pick and Vyacheslav Kozlov (Hasek trade). Add a piece for retention. Not hardly 6 pcs.
1) hasek didn’t come with retention.
2) the miller trade is a better indication of value since it is during the cap era and values/trade structures have changed.
If you aren’t willing to move one of your top 5 prospects, it’ll take quantity rather than quality. That said, move a guy like holtz instead and I’d take vanacek and a 1st with him. Chevy has proven patient and he will wait until he gets what he wants.
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