NHL insiders have consistently said that if the sharks get it down to a 4x8 then they think a deal will happen. Retaining that much (close to half) is not something mike Grier has expressed interest in. I also think that Tyler Myers is who the sharks will fill the vacant RD spot with and then Gawanke will probably get a shot in the NHL too. Personally I think the penguins are out and the canes, but allegedly there are 3 metro teams and a surprise team still in the mix

I wouldn't really call 30% close to half. MG (and owners) should be willing to do 30% and even up to 35-40% otherwise it's just a wasted trade.

Hawks decline. Petry isn't a need for the Hawks, and GM Kyle from Chicago essentially said yesterday they aren't taking on more contracts. And this package doesn't get the deal done anyway. Neither POJ or Smith would be targets for the Hawks. They'd ask for the '26 2nd in place of POJ or Smith for sure if there was a trade to be made.

Regardless of what team Karlsson ends up on I don't think the sharks can move him unless they retain at least $4M. He'd obviously only waive to go to a team that's going to compete for a playoff spot and I don't think any of those options could take on a cap hit over $8M (or would want to). Also, regardless of the team that trades for him, they're most likely going to be sending another defenseman back. Whether SJS plays that person or in turn flips them is obviously up in the air.

Idk who the metro teams could be besides the penguins/canes

Isles have Pulock/Dobson/Mayfield on right side, Dobson is young and no one would want that mayfield contract (mayfield and Pulock have NTCs).
Jersey is possible.. i think they're still focused on getting a goalie, but adding Karlsson doesn't make a ton of sense there because Marion would likely go to SJS and he's one of their better defensive defenseman.
Rangers are definitely out, Fox and Trouba on the right.
He wouldn't waive for the flyers.
CJB could maybe be it.. but they would need to move cap, and I could see Karlsson saying no because who wants to play for Babcock.
Maybe caps, but they'd have to also offload a lot of cap and Jensen would be coming back to make space for Karlsson.

I'd be the surprise team is still seattle, specially if they're worried about Dunn.

Regardless, if it's a metro team you're most likely getting a defenseman back.

I honestly don't really care to have him for the pens unless everything falls just right, I would want 50% retained between SJS and a third team and the penguins need to move cap themselves.

I guess we'll see what the retention looks like. In this scenario, Pittsburgh can only acquire EK a few certain ways. I think the Sharks will be hard-pressed to get a return they like without retaining a decent amount. 4x8 isn't terrible though, just only works for a few select teams.

I agree Petry isn't a "need" for the Hawks, but were Foligno and Perry really needs either? Also, I think you're wrong and the Hawks would welcome an early twenties LHD. POJ or Smith would immediately be the best LHD on the Hawks roster and wouldn't be taking a spot from anyone in the immediate future (i.e. Korchinski). A 2nd and a promising young NHL d-man is more than enough to take on two years of Petry (especially when the Hawks could flip him in 2024-2025 to a contender for assets).

Agreed. I'm also not necessarily fond of acquiring Karlsson but if we did this is how I'd want it to look. I don't see the Sharks retaining 50% and I'm not sure we have the assets in the organization to entice them to do so. Nonetheless, he technically fits our window and as long as we don't move Yager or Pickering to make it happen I can live with that.

I'd personally rather see the penguins move Rutta/DeSmith/Granlund and spend assets to improve the third line.

This return, while I personally wouldn't do it as Sharks GM, is realistic for what to expect from Grier. However, that's too much retention. I see 33% retention max out of Grier.

Sharks accept if it's about 3.5mil retained instead of 4.6mil. Or send a 2nd rounder to a 3rd party team for them to retain 1-1.5mil or so.

Desmith for sure. I think Rutta had a tough year with injuries but I'm rather indifferent on him. If we buyout Granlund or move him without paying assets then I'm okay with it. If it's going to cost us a 2nd+ to move Granlund I'd rather play him and hope he rebounds (which I think he can).

Honestly, I'd rather the Pens go out and spend the assets for Hanifin instead of EK. In addition, I'd take whatever we can get for Pettersson and move on lol.

Hawks have Vlasic, Phillips, Kaiser and Roos, all LD age 24 or less, who will be battling for a roster spot this season. With Allen, DelMastro and Korchinski all in the que as well. Believe me, they aren't looking to add another early 20's LD to the mix. Foligno and Perry were "needs" in that they are both on one year deals that got Hawks above the cap floor, and provide leadership and grit.

If a third team is involved to retain 1-1.5m and the Sharks are only retaining 3.5, the return from PIT will be less. Same deal as above, remove the third going to SJ and send it to the third party team and there you go. I agree that Grier is strapped and only can do so much given the situation. I think it's more likely we see Karlsson in a Sharks jersey next season than traded for a massive return. It'll be a decent package but not a runaway for SJS.

Tbh it just sounds like youre lower on Karlsson than what the insiders are communicating the teams are. im not sure there is a contender in the league that could afford or would want to pay mike Griers price for anything over the retention thats the bare minimum of whats needed to move him out. I also think the sharks have a bit more power in the trade than most people think. Even though Karlsson has a NMC hes been open an talking to teams about where he wants to go so there is a bit of a bidding war, and the sharks are willing to give time for people to make their cap work. And the sharks dont have to trade him (which I dont like for the player or the org) but I think the notion the sharks have to retain close to 4 mil is far fetched

sorry I was referencing the retention in the ACGM not the 3.5 mil, it sounds like the 3.5 mil is about where the sharks are at

High on the player, Karlsson's impact obviously speaks for itself. Low on the penguins getting him. I think they could build a better team by focusing on retooling the bottom six. If they make some deal for Karlsson they're not going to have cap space to tinker with that 3rd line that needs help. (unless you had some ungodly deal where SJ kept $4M and then a third team Kept an additional $3M, which obviously isn't going to happen lol). The penguins would be smart to do it form a business standpoint, you're going to generate even more revenue if you can tell fans "Hey we have Sid, Geno and Letang but we also just add the 3 time Norris winner Erik Karlsson..."

I'd disagree a bit on the sharks having more power. Karlsson's age, contract and NMC kind of screw the sharks a bit. No one in the league wants that contract on a 33 year old, and the teams that may be willing to take the full hit or closer to it are most likely teams he wouldn't waive for. So at the end of the day, the sharks could keep him but that's fine but it's another gamble for them. if he plays this year and has a significantly worse year, or gets hurt his trade value next summer significantly drops. If he continues to demand a trade and the relationship gets more rocky the sharks could be stuck with an $11.5M cap hit that's taking up spots for younger developing players because they didn't take a deal to move on from him.

It's definitely an extremely complex situation regardless of where he goes (if he goes) because again i'd bet majority of the team interested don't want him for a penny more than $8M aav at most.

AH I see but I think if Karlsson were a free agent (in not this bizarre free agency) class he could command a 4x8. In this particular case I get that he has an NMC but it doesn't sound like that is having an impact on the trade so far other than only contenders are in for him