Still seems like alot. I don't think they will need the retention either. I don't like the idea of trading burgers. I would put that value at a first and two seconds.

Ive seen Detroit fans value Berggren very highly this summer, but I never heard of him before the summer so can only go off his boxcar stats. They seem solid enough but not particularly special. What makes you folks think so highly of him (genuine question, tone not always obvious online)?

Every fanbase has a tendency to overvalue certain prospects. Right now, it's Berggren.

IMO, Berggren's ceiling is a 2nd line player, but more likely is a good 3rd line player on a playoff team when it's all said and done. A number of fans think he'll have a career similar to Jiri Hudler.

Let's assume the market is roughly what LA paid for Dubois. So a middle 6 forward with a decent cap hit (Iaffalo) could be Kubalik or Fabrri, a young(ish) player with upside (Vilardi) could be Berggren, a B/C level prospect (Kupari) and a 2nd round pick. Now, I do think Dubois' value is higher than Debrincat given he's a big centre. But by how much? He'll be earning roughly the same money assuming 8-8.8 mil. I would have to think that Debrincat's value as of now is something along the lines of 3 assets (Roster player, decent prospect and 1st/2nd round pick). So in this scenario, Kubalik/Fabbri, Berggren and a 2nd is actually what the price should be.

Who the hell knows, just basing this off what I think and what the market has told us.

I would have agreed with you a few weeks ago, but Dorion has seriously backed himself into a corner on this one, with ADB's help. ADB controls his fate since he'll only sign long-term with a few teams, and not all of those teams can even fit him from a cap perspective. Dorion should have pulled the trigger on a trade for ADB well before now, when I think he would've gotten a slightly fairer valuation. At this point though, he's got roster spots to fill and a majority of the FA class has already signed. He just needs to move ADB to progress his roster.

He's coming off a rookie season in which he outperformed expectations and was close to a 20 goal scorer. He was nearly a PPG his last 2 seasons, one in the SHL and one in the AHL, and Detroit is still rebuilding so him being younger is a big deal.

Specifically with the DeBrincat rumors, Berggren plays a tougher game than Cat, and comes at a much cheaper price tag. We aren't in win now mode, and can afford to wait it out to see if he can reach the next level.

Counter point: Waiting on Berggren while playing him on the 3rd/4th line can walk us to another Zadina situation where he wants his contract terminated due to limited ice time.

He was getting PP time and played 2nd/3rd all last season, and very likely will do the same this season

Fair. But at this point, if we're trading him for peanuts I would rather just keep him on the roster.

Our C's last season: Larkin - Copp - Veleno - Suter

At 5v5 Berggren played 369 minutes with Veleno, 142 with Copp, 57 with Larkin, 43 with Suter. So, 60.4% of his 5v5 time was spent on the 3rd line 5v5, with 23.2% of the year on 2nd line, and 16.4% split between 1st & 4th lines. Mostly 3rd line, but definitely got some 2nd line reps.

However, the same could've been said for Zadina early on. In what I'd consider his rookie season (2020-21), he played 45% of his 5v5 TOI with Larkin on the top line and 33% with Namestnikov on the 2nd line. After that season, when he didn't magically work out (and he shouldn't have considered the quality of linemates in the top 6 outside of Larkin), he was basically absolved to bottom line or bottom 6 duties, when not healthy scratched, for the next 2 years.

There are several components of why DET fans are so high (even overrating) Berggren. First, his numbers for the year were pretty good once you put the lens on it. He scored 28 points in 67 games, averaging 13:30/game. Bringing that number to 18 minutes/game, he’d be a slightly higher than .53PPG as a rookie.

He spent 37% of the time with Veleno as his C, meaning he played bottom 6 lines. He wasn’t quite sheltered, averaging only 56% if his face off starts in the Ozone. Looking at it that way, he had a positive possession metric of 51% CF, and a 4.6% CF relative. When he did play up the lineup, his numbers held steady (though, much better with Copp than Larkin).

80+% of his shots came in between the dots, for a Euro with only 1 year of NA ice time, that’s pretty good. He shot at a 15% clip, though only at 1.3 shots per game. He definitely needs to shoot more.

Nothing earth shattering, but for a team whose middle/bottom six got caved last year, he was the standout. He probably tops out as a 2nd line RW (playing his off hand). Someone compared him to Jiri Hudler, which is on the mark. Tomas Tatar is another good one. Both of them were above average middle 6 guys.

Seems like Vilardi should have much higher value than Berggren, no?

Thanks for clarifying.

Makes sense

Thanks

Yup