I just don't understand how anyone would take on that contract for 4 years. I won't play stupid and pretend Karlsson didn't have an elite season, but there would be much cheaper alternatives. Toronto can't bring in an 11.5M D-man, let alone a 5M D-man.

As a Leafs fan no thanks, you’re almost out from under being handcuffed 11m by JT, why handcuff yourself for additional years with Karlssons contract. I also don’t think his play from last season is what to expect from him going forward. I’d rather keep Tavares for just 2 more years and not lose those other assets.

We differ in what EK65 will be moving forward. I think he will have a larger impact over the next 4 years from the blue line, than JT will have up front. Its a monster deal, but it brings more balance coming from the back end. The leafs need a better D to lead that group. Reilly is a 2nd Dman on a championship team. This deal frees up $5M from Brodie to apply to O'reilly, or other forward depth.

Why would Tavares waive?

Both teams decline. Whole lotta mediocre going San Jose's way and that 11.5M contract is going to hurt any team that wants to compete.

Because if the leafs have to move 88/16/34 because of his declining return on his 11M contract... the fans will be pissed... not right now, but in 12 months when they are worse.

The leafs have convincing to do... but the appeal is he goes to Colorado and competes for a cup... its a business decision. Still a hometown hero. My crystal ball sees him getting the Larry Murphy treatment if they trade one of the others, and he stays...

Lol why does Tavares care about the fans being pissed? He chose to play for his childhood team. Other than when he’s expiring and at the deadline, why would he waive?

I honestly think the team won't improve with him staying. It's a nice story but its run its course, and didnt work. He can still return as a celebrated former captain, return home whenever... be cheered by the fans... but like i said above... I think its LArry Murphy and Muskoka 5 treatment if he stays

It actually creates a ton of flexibility... and possibily they put Murray on LTIR? Suddenly you have a new core 4 and 30M in cap space...

We just take on another contract that would weigh us down. No thanks.

y'all stuck with JT forever

EK65 just put up 100 points from the blueline on a terrible team... only 5 Defensemen have done that in the games history... will win the Norris unanimously AND he is available. EK had a gruesome injury and has finally fully recovered from it... if this is his peak, and he puts up 75 or 80 pts moving forward from the blue line... you are getting better value from him back there, than from JT up front, who likely moves to the wing becoming the highest paid winger in NHL history... likely putting up 60-75 points over the next two seasons (he won't have mitch to drive his point totals up)

Now is the time... it really is. My question is... if you could convince him to waive... would this deal make sense. I'm still waiting for a reasonable take. 25M in cap space to fill out the forwards still... and if you can bury Murray on LTIR... that becomes 30M

It’s not about who will bring more JT or Karlsson, it’s about the 11 million dollars handcuffing you and limiting what you can do with other players (Matthews, marner, nylander all going to be making more). Just not a smart move to be spending 11 million on a guy who is over the age of 33 for multiple years

Look at what Meier did in SJ vs NJ, playing with no expectations on a terrible team is probably doing them good. I'm sure Karlsson would still put up a ton of points on the Leafs if he's healthy, but probably much less than 100 pts. Definitely not worth taking on the contract or giving all of that on top of Tavares who is still a solid top 6 player. Taking on Karlsson will prevent the Leafs from keeping Matthews, Marner, and Nylander who will likely all command 10m+ on their next contracts.

i dont mind the deal. i think Karlsson makes a lot of sense for TO.

Murray' cap hit doesnt hit the $24M because you have him on LTIR. I think LEafs still have a ton of work to do though.... I do think you want McCabe and Liilgren as your 3rd pair so you need 2 add two top 4 D and a #2 Center. This team is a SC contender with O' Riley as the 3C

yep... a 70pt Dman not too shabby... Nurse, Jones, Hamilton all getting 8-9M. Karlsson carried that sens team with Derrick Brassard and Kyle Turris to a game 7 ECF (i know it was 4 -5 years ago... but he will not wilt under pressure is the point I'd make)... There is a track record of him being calm under pressure and Swede's and Toronto seem to work for superstars. I also just went and created a roster two years out with this trade to see what things would look like... 34 making 13M, and 88 making 9.5M... and plenty of flex still...

You want a contender to trade their 2C and a top 4 D for a 1D which would result in them having two offesived Dmen. That itself is going to be an issue. There's also the cap aspect as mentioned by several already.

If it's Karlsson at 9.5m for 11M Tavares + the 28th OV, then maybe there's a conversation to be had (if we ignore the NMC), but I don't think Grier would be interested in that return for him.

The best bet for a Karlsson trade is probably to the Oilers, and that can only happen with a decent cap increase and some retention by the sharks.

I hear you but the case in front of you isn't a dream scenario for the leafs. There isn't a better scenario that I can think of where they improve next year.
The leafs HAVE to make a move. their failure is crazy. Also, trading 88/34/16 is CRAZY as well. if they trade 88/16, and keep 91 they are worse. people that say JT is still an 80 point player neglect to point out that without 16 riding shotgun, he is probably a 65 point player. The leafs know this. O'Reilly will put up 70 points if he had Marner on his wing.

I don't think the Oilers can make it work without serious retention from SJS... and this move allows SJS to have no retention (or very little) on EK (he just won the Norris, so there is an argument from SJS on why would they have to retain when Darnell Nurse makes 9M?), and then flip JT with lots of retention (increasing his value as a 2C at 7M...

SJS gets to double dip on two great players maximizing their return for the rebuild
SJS are out from any retention on JT two years earlier
TOR gets their PP QB, Norris level championship contending Dman
TOR gets more flexibility up front for fresh blood
TOR has 13M, 9.5M+ to sign 88/34
COL gets strong 2C to replace Landeskog
JT still competes for a cup, playing with elevating players like Rantonaan, or MacKinnon, Makar

The Leafs basically need to run it back with a major addition to their D that is affordable or a player that fits better than Bunting up and down the line up.

If the Leafs can move Tavares, I think they would but it's not going to look like this. If the options are status quo vs crippling the team, you take option A every time.

I am in complete agreement with you... I updated the post above. Please take a look... outcomes for all stakeholders.

Two things about that though.

Running it back: This will infuriate everyone and its a losers race - 1st round/second round exit again... no heart, no soul in the team. Its a guarantied strong regular season, but it just won't be acceptable
Get me a top 2, impact D at a reasonable cost that's available around the league... please name the D and the cost. I say that with a willing and open heart to the suggestion. I don't see it.

I would rather this move get made and it FLOPS entirely (I don't think it would) and you've resigned 34/88 in the meantime. Status quo won't win. and with that, they are basically the Raptors before Kawai showed up... great regular season, and hopeless in the post season... thanks for the sincere and honest debate. I enjoy the back and forth...

They won't get a top 2 D most likely but they also probably can't get a 2C either. When I say run it back, I just mean keep the core, resign whomever they can from O'Reilly, Schenn, Acciari and Kampf. Then sign one of the RD FAs if they can afford it, and get someone to replace Bunting unless he's resigning for like 3M (which I doubt). Idk who thry could use the most or if they will have any money to sign them, but the Leafs will likely be interested in Severson, Dumba, and Klingberg.

that is an option... certainly. I think myself and every other fan hate that option. AND i don't think it solves the problem... and frankly I think you start to see jerseys and waffles and all that garbage... the team will be good but failure again. The scenario on all three teams is screaming for it... COL needs their Landeskog replacement, SJ need to rid of the contract, and the leafs need a D AND an enticing scenario for JT to consider waiving. He could simply say kick rocks... but its worth looking into.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/710569?post_id=4072936 here is the roster consturction in a couple years... (I have had some time this morning, lol)

No Oilers wont be in on Karlsson. They wont have the cap space for him (even at 50/50). I think at karlssons cap hit and the acquisition cost, id rather shoot for Sverrsson as a UFA

I don't think the Oilers will be in on him, but if the cap were to go up like 3m, and Ceci and Yamamoto were dealt along, with around 3m retention he could probably be fit onto the team. That being said they would need to part with Bouchard and Kostin probably, and the cap is probably not going up more than 1M anyways.

I think the Oilers will be trying to sign Dumba or Klingberg but will settle with Justin Holl.

You guys are starting to see it... the leafs have the cap structure to make this work. They are the only team in the league that can do this (if they get JT to waive)