Just retaining 4 million for 5 years is worth 2 first round pick on it's own, let alone for the Norris defenseman of the year

on the right track but it needs one of EDM's top prospects and a bit more needs to be going to SJ for 35% retention

What?????
Burns retention was nowhere near that.

I would normally agree (personally I think a mid first is worth about 5 million), the problem is, very few teams are able to add an 11.5 million dollar cap hit, it doesn't matter how swell he is. Not that it's the sellers sole responsibility to help make cap space for the buyer, but ideally you want as many teams as possible throwing offers at you. That's not selling short on your player, that's accepting the financial realities of the league.

And I think when you are talking about firsts as compensation, you are talking about cap dumps, basically doing another team a solid at a cost. Moving a player that's making a huge salary may have to have retention baked into the cost, just because.

That’s because his retention was ~$8 mil over 3 seasons not $20 mil come on now. He also wanted out and only to a few places

There's a lot of middle ground between the full 11.5 cap hit and 7.5 cap hit. A 7.5 cap is is absurd for a 110 pt defenseman. And anyone who cries that he's the worst defensive player hasn't watched him. He's by no means a top defensive player but he's a capable defenseman who's actually incredible defending off the rush. It's more in his own zone and the physicality that hurts him.

If Sharks retained 3.25 this would be a decently fair offer, ideally they'd look for sub 3 mil retention. EK65 at an 8.25 cap hit is well worth it. Especially with the cap rising substantially over the remainder of his contract.

So from a 3rd at 8 million to two firsts at 20 million is the comparison?

One player is winning the Norris this year and scoring 100 points, the other isn’t. One is 32 years old and one is 37. It’s not that hard to understand

I don't think they Sharks have to make Karlsson available at 7,5 million to get offer. Anything below 9m will generate buzz around a defenseman on pace for over 100 points.

Also, not only the amount of retention but the lenght has a price as well. As a bottom team for the years to come, retaining on EK takes a spot from getting cap dumps WITH picks. I think SJ will only accept amazing offers, since they don'T need to trade him by the deadline, a deal could be done in the summer. Altough with the season he is having, would be a good idea to bank on that

Edmonton would need it to be 7.5 million. That is the magic number for edmonton. Also at 4 million retention the retention % is the same as Burns. That 34% is essentially a buyout in half the term plus you get picks Back. I think that is Grier's magic number. The longer you wait the less Value EK has and he can get injured screwing the whole deal. Don't forget EK was one of the worst contracts in the NHL last year.

Kesselring is close to a top prospect. it is very easy to see him becoming a colton parayko type.

he's RD which is definitely something SJ needs, but still don't think it's quality enough for EK considering EDM has plenty of other top prospects to potentially offer. Holloway, Bourgault, Bouchard, Broberg, Schaefer, Petrov. You obviously want to keep Bouchard and Holloway for your roster to compete, so maybe send Broberg or Bourgault. Petrov can be throw-in on the deal especially since he doesn't count towards SPC and SJ has too many contracts

Lol @ the sales pitch. Burns deal is a bad comp for obvious reasons. It's more likely SJ moves EK during offseason anyway when there is more cap certainty. SJ could take 4m retention as long as they are fairly compensated for it.

Broberg is more untouchable than Bouchard he is EK's future Partner if they get him.

Who is 37?

It's not about percentage it's about cap hit. And what magic number are you talking about? That's something you came up with.

If EK hit free agency at the end of the year I guarantee he'd be getting north of 8.5 for probably for 3-4 years, so similar term to now. If Edmonton is getting EK at 7.5 AND dumping cap then they'd best be giving up their entire farm and every first they have because that's the best contract behind Tage and Drai

Burns

And I bet Burns has the longer career.

Nobody wanted EK the last 4 years don't get cocky. EK's contract is structured so that you can't even buy it out. If he gets injured again ad plays injured or regresses to last year you are paying the full contract instead of 16 million and you don't get the picks. Percentage absolutely matters when you consider buyouts. Most buyouts are 33% of the AAV x double the remaining years but EKs bonus structure makes it unreasonable to buy him out.

Don't ever think that the deal isn't San jose selling high while they still can even just to get rid of the cap or that this isn't about moving out money as a financial decision.

No doubt, But EKs contract will already be up by the time he's Burn's age.

Why are you talking about buyouts when this is a retention issue? Do you think Edmonton will buy him out in his last year or two?

So sick of people talking about his injuries. He's never had recurring injuries other than the groin that he came back too early from. the rest were completely unrelated injuries. No one's talking about Stammer and how they think he'll get injured again, so why do people do it with EK?

You're thinking of this as a pure "SJ needs to get rid of this player" deal, even if the return and salary retention sucks. Reality is, you'd be getting a 110 point d-man at a 7.5 cap hit. That would cost an insane amount. Or SJ retains less and gets a lightly worse return.

He trouble is that most fans want a return based on Karlsson's current performance, without taking into account the fact that he's never performed anywhere near this level before and likely never will again. Unless and until they understand this, the ask will always be too high.

5v5 P/60 over the past 10 years:

12-13: 1.27 P/60
13-14: 1.37
14-15: 1.16
15-16: 1.55
16-17: 1.40
17-18: 1.44
18-19: 1.41
19-20: 1.52
20-21: 0.70
21-22: 1.35
22-23: 2.57

Other than 2 outlier seasons (this one and 20-21), they're all pretty tightly grouped between 1.16 and 1.55. These are good numbers, but Bouchard posted 1.42 last season in what was effectively his rookie year and won't cost more than $4M for the next 3 years and likely less. Plus Bouchard can be expected to get better going forward (he's only 23) while Karlsson cannot.

But SJ fans expect to get a Bouchard-type PLUS 2-3 other very good pieces (1sts, top prospects) for Karlsson with minimal retention. I think that's seriously disconnected from reality.