Équipe: 2023-24 Devils du New Jersey

Date de création initiale: 23 janv. 2023

Publié: 23 janv. 2023

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald has some big decisions to make this off-season. I tried to handicap the four big ones and handful of the smaller decisions.

(Most of Fitzy's moves have been unexpected, with probably the only exception being Graves trade. So there will likely be more done than shown here).


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1. Head Coach. Choices are likely (a) extend Lindy Ruff or (b) promote Andrew Brunette (current NJD assistant coach and 2022 Jack Adams finalist for Florida). Ruff has done well this year and probably deserves an extension, but if Brunette has an out clause in his deal if he gets offered another head coaching job. If Fitzy thinks Brunette is the guy, Ruff could be packing his bags. (Also had been some speculation that Ruff may retire).

Ruff extended, Brunnette hired away: 40%
Ruff extended, Brunnete stays: 10%
Ruff expires, Brunnette hired: 30%
Ruff retires, Brunnette hired: 15%
Something else: 5%


2. Extending Jesper Bratt. No reason to think it doesn't get done, but will likely take time and go through periods of brinkmanship. The worry for NJ fans is that the delay in getting an extension may get in the way of other moves (especially as free agency opens).

Bratt extends before end of season: 20%
Bratt extends before draft and free agency: 25%
Bratt extends over the summer: 50%
Bratt unsigned and traded: 5%


3. Graves and Severson. Both dmen are UFAs after the season and are likely to get sizeable deals in free agency. Devils have Hamilton, Marino and Siegenthaler all locked up through at least 2026-27 (and all will have NTC protection for 2024-27). They also have Hughes, Nemec, Mukhamadullin, Casey and other D prospects in system, so they will not likely want to get tied down to a long-term. The most likely scenario may be just letting both walk, unless he can get one to take short-term deal (or deal without any NTC protections). Since Severson reportedly wants a long-term deal, I think Graves is probably more likely to be signed.

Severson extends, Graves extends: 10%
Severson walks, Graves extends: 25%
Severson extends, Graves walks: 10%
Severson walks, Graves walks: 55%


4. Big Off-Season Splash. Last, the Devils have been saving some dry powder for another acquisition. The certainly have the picks, prospects and cap space to make another big move. And it is likely to be a top-6 forward. Fitzgerald has been been quoted multiple times saying that he believes roster-building is done in off-season. A move before deadline this year is possible if we continue in the position we are in, but not likely.

A big trade before 2023 deadline: 20% (not counting depth or rental moves)
A big trade around 2023 draft: 35%
A big free agency acquisition over summer: 20%
A big trade before 2023-24 season: 10%
No big moves before 2023-24: 15%

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Other decisions to make:

5. Qualify Blackwood. Blackwood has been one of the more frustrating Devils in recent years, mostly because we know there is a quality goaltender in there somewhere. But inconsistency, injuries and series of bad decisions have gotten in the way. This summer, he has a qualifying offer of $3.36 million (and then would be come UFA in 2023-24). Akira Schmid (0.914 in AHL, 0.919 in NHL this year) and Nico Daws (0.904 in AHL this year) probably make this decision an easy one. I am guessing they will attempt to bring him back for one more year at a discount.

Blackwood extended long-term: 0%
Blackwood qualified, signs 1-year deal: 30%
Blackwood not offered qualifying offer: 60%
Blackwood rights traded: 10%


6. Bridge or Long-Term for Sharangovich. Sharangovich has QO of $2.05 million and would have one last RFA window. Since he will turn 27 just before the 2025 free agency period, a 2-year deal would walk him directly to unrestricted free agency. There is a high chance he gets a little term here, even if they are just buying a couple of years of his UFA years.

1-year deal: 40%
2-year deal: 0%
3-year deal: 10%
4-year deal: 25%
5-year deal: 20%
6-year deal (or more): 5%


7. Bridge or Long-Term for Zetterlund. Fabian Zetterlund is a interesting case as he is a good depth piece and has shown some flashes on being the "heavy skill" that Fitzy wants a forward. At time, the 23-year old played on top line with Hischier and has put up respectable 0.65 ppg in AHL and 0.45 ppg in NHL. The Devils choice will be to bridge him one more time or try to lock him up long-term. They could sign him to 2-year deal and still have one last crack in his RFA years. A 3-year year deal would take him to UFA.

1-year deal: 50%
2-year deal: 30%
3-year deal: 0%
4-year deal: 15%
5-year deal (or more): 5%


8. 3C. Devils went out and got Haula to be 3C going into this season. He has since mostly played as wing on Hughes' line since he can play a more disciplined version of the wing/center hyrbrid role that Mercer and Sharangovich have played that allows Hughes to do his thing. 3C has mostly been Boqvist recently, but it has been a revolving position with McLeod, Sharangovich and Mercer rotating in. The question for Fitzgerald will be if he commits to one of these options at 3C to start 2023-24 or brings in someone new.

New Acquisition at 3C: 20%
Haula re-signed: 15%
Internal option: 15%
A mix of the above: 50%


9. Miles Wood. Devils took Wood to arbitration last year since he was coming off an injury-plaqued season. He is making $3.2 million this year, but the question would be if we could get him to take a discount on a short-term deal. Since he will be an unrestricted free agent and has unique skill sets (physicality and speed), he will likely get a much bigger deal elsewhere.

Miles Wood walks: 60%
Miles Wood signs 1 or 2-year deal: 25%
Miles Wood signs 3 or 4-year deal: 10%
Miles Wood signs longer deal: 5%


10. Sign Prospects with rights expiring. Devils have four prospects whose rights will expire this summer (so if unsigned, they will be free to sign anywhere). Former goalie Gilles Senn is aging out at age 27 and is regular in Swiss league. He will not be resigned. Nikola Pasic is now 22 years old and is over a point-per-game in Sweden's second division. But has not developed to SHL yet. He probably does not get an offer. Patrick Moynihan is a senior at Providence College. He is a heady player, good two-way center and can score around the net. Also, he is a close friend of Hughes. Probably a coin flip. Case McCarthy is a defensive, stay-at-home dman at Boston University. He has been defensive partners with Cam York (at NTDP), David Farrance, Dom Fensore and now Lane Hutson. All of whom had excellent offensive seasons as his partner. He will definitely sign an NHL deal somewhere if he doesn't with New Jersey. NJD will likely make him a bona fide offer, but he could go NCAA free agent route.

Giles Senn:
1% NHL offer
99% no offer

Nikola Pasic:
5% NHL offer
5% AHL offer or PTO
90% no offer

Patrick Moynihan:
30% NHL deal
30% AHL offer
5% PTO
35% no offer

Case McCarthy:
35% signs with NJD
50% signs elsewhere in August
10% rights traded before August
5% no offer

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Team below takes most probable of each.

1. Ruff extended, Brunette walks
2. Bratt extends over the summer
3. Graves and Severson walk (short-term UFA signed)
4. A big deal is done at draft
5. Blackwood not qualified (back-up signed)
6. Sharangovich gets 1-year
7. Zetterlund gets 1-year
8. A mix of options used at 3C
9. Miles Wood walks
10. All four expire

(likely to be other moves too)