Quoting: Smitty426
So if he's a rental this year. After that he's a ufa correct? I keep referring back to your post a ways back
He will be in the final year of his RFA period, so will have a qualifying offer (1 year, $10 million) between him and UFA. There are a few possibilities here
1. San Jose trades Meier before deadline -- Grier has said that he will not allow other teams to talk extension with Pepe. So, the conventional wisdom is that Meier could be sold at deadline as a rental. They will still likely get some good assets, but the shorter term will limit the return.
2. San Jose elects Arbitration -- At the end of the season, San Jose can elect to take him to arbitration to avoid the QO. But they would need to elect that immediately after the season is over, before the draft. At that point, arbitration can award him a 1-year (and only 1-year) contract, probably worth around $8.5m, which means he will be a UFA in 2024. They could then aim to trade him at 2024 deadline (but if it drags on this long, he will likely want out Id think)
2. San Jose qualifies Meier -- If the team declines to take him to arbitration, the only way they can automatically retain him is with the 1-year, $10 million deal...unless they agree to an extension, which it does not sound like he wants to stay in San Jose. If they chose not to qualify, he can walk as UFA in 2023. This seems like a VERY unlikely option.
4. San Jose trades Meier before or at the draft -- A possibility, but San Jose will have to chance its stance. They will have to elect arbitration before...but if teams will still not have the ability to talk extension with him before hand, teams will not take the risk...so the return would heavily muted. Its possible San Jose will allow bidding teams to talk to Lemieux, which seams like the only way this occurs.
5. San Jose trades Meier after the draft -- Probably the most likely option, especially if the Devils are buying. It will end up being a little like Fiala deal in that the contract will be worked out before trade.
In short, Meier holds all the cards. He will likely end up wherever he wants to play.