I really like this trade for both sides. Only issue I see NJ having is getting Meier locked up without having to extend a $10M QO, but if they agree to a long term deal I think it makes sense all around

I don't think anyone thinks he's getting 10m. Including himself.

Who knows though. I thought I was winning the lottery today. Was sure about it.

He's owed $10m, if he wants it, he gets it. Unless the team just doesn't qualify him. In which case, this is an absurd price to pay for a rental.

Don’t think you’ll get SJS to retain on both Reimer/Meier AND send a pick back the other way, but I’m sure they would take a caphit like Tartar or Johnsson off NJD’s hand in exchange for this package.

Overall I think it’s more like-

SJS Receives
Andreas Johnsson
Alexander Holtz
Seamus Casey
2023 1st Round Pick

NJD Receives
Timo Meier (8x8)
James Reimer

Any Meier trade depends on his extension.

But there is no way Devils move four A-prospects for him. A Holtz plus a pick package is plausible if he extends with team-friendly extension. But this ask, without extension, doesn’t really warrant a response.

Couldn't agree more.
Reimer is most likely a rental to add some dependable 1-B goalie play with he potential to start the playoffs for you.
Meier isn't considered a rental as he is arbitration eligible and has the QO, my feeling is NJD could just retain his rights and go to arbitration if they can't set up a long term deal. Even then I feel a stipulation on this deal going through is NJD being allowed to pre-negotiate an extension prior to the trade.

Holtz should cover most of the value for Meier.
A 2nd rd pick should cover 99% of Reimer's value.
There's no reasonable explanation for why the Devils are paying the equivalent of 2-3 1sts (1st rd pick + Mukhammadulin + Casey) to satisfy the remaining the value discrepancy.
Substitute the 1st rd pick + Mukhammadulin + Casey with one of Bahl, Walsh or Okhotiuk and maybe the Devils would consider biting on Reimer + Meier and his 10m QO.

Right on. NJD, or any acquiring team I suppose, would probably want that extension pre-negotiated and agreed to before any trade. And would be willing to pay a lot more for that, unless he is asking for the moon.

That's what I was imagining as well. It wouldn't be a sign-n-trade Meier situation because SJ would likely give him a NMC deal without a team list for at least the beginning of the contract like Hertl's. So they'd tell Meier they want to trade him to NJ while tying in NJ to negotiate a deal prior to the trade, otherwise the risk is understandably too high for NJ. And I don't see SJ underselling Meier (getting fleeced) to lower risk for other teams so realistically Meier will sign with SJ, but that's no fun for this site.

Holtz plus pick probably works for Meier if he is agreeing to team-friendly deal. But we would not give up Casey for Reimer. If we got into position where we needed a rental goalie like Reiner, we’d probably just pay for him in picks or lesser prospects. But that seems like wholly separate transaction.

If Meier-to-NJ ever happened, it would probably look more like…

SJS Receives
Alexander Holtz
2023 or 2024 1st Round Pick

NJD Receives
Timo Meier (7x7)

Timing is important on this deal. It would likely be done after season and after first arbitration window in June. There would be three scenarios from there:

(a) San Jose chooses to take him to arbitration. By doing so, they are locking themselves into one-year deal (likely around $8.5m). The good is that whoever owns his rights saves $1.5m by avoiding the Qualifying Offer. That hard part is that they have to choose this option quite early in the process.

(b) San Jose declines to elect arbitration. In this case, NJD probably waits at least 3 days after 2023 draft and QO’s are made (there would be a chance he ends up as UFA if it gets that far). That would also mean it’s a 2024 draft choice if a deal is made.

(c) Meier extends with San Jose before arbitration. Any acquiring team would then have contract uncertainty removed.

I only think it’s an in-season deal if NJD has a reason to make a move during 2022-23. Right now, they don’t.

Yeah, the extensions is essentially a given in most of any Meier trades. I don't think anyone is getting him as a rental + QO to UFA.

The way I see it is as pretty much two transactions:
1. Meier for Holtz and a 1st (which NJ slightly comes our with the better return), and...
2. Reimer and a 3rd for Casey/Mukhamadullin (where SJ would slightly come out on top)

#1 if Meier extends at reasonable number ($7m ish).
#2 these are both very solid prospects that would not be involved in a rental (not even sure we are open to adding rentals).

#1 - 7x7 is unreasonable to Meier. It would be closer to 8.25-8.75 x 8. That's very good for a quality Power forward with where this Cap is going.
#2 - Teams that are coming out of a rebuild need to commit and not hoard prospects that they hope pan out. NJ has a very deep d-core and neither Casey or Mukhamadullin are not going to see NHL time anytime soon, even if they were ready. Nemec, Bahl, and Hughes are all above them in the depth chart

In addition to those points, if NJ is serious about playoffs this year, long term injuries to Palat and Blackwood make them more desperate to keep on that track in being a true contender

Casey/Mukhamadullin are closer to playing in the NHL than a 2023 2nd would be for example. No reason to trade prospects that are popping just because we may not need them... Bahl is also better than those two now, but both have a higher ceiling than him. No way Stolarz for example would cost much more than a 2nd.

Devils have done fine without Palat, he missed the whole Western Canada road trip. They aren't in desperate need of a top-6 winger.

$8.5m means San Jose gets lesser return.

NJD aren’t hoarding prospects. Mukhamadullin was expected to have a longer period before he hits NHL and Casey was just drafted this year. We have been lucky with good lottery results, high picks and some good selections along the way.

Bahl, Walsh, Okhotiuk are probably a 3rd pair guys where as Hughes, Nemec, Mukhamadullin and Casey all look like they could be top-4. McCarthy, Edwards, Vilen, Hurtig, Vukojevic, etc are all TBD.

Young dmen can be valuable assets in trade market when time is right (look at Colorado’s moves with Barron, Timmins, Helleson). So I agree we probably move a couple of them eventually…we are just not “desperate” to do so.