Similar to my other series about worst contracts. Things that factor in include age, teams cap space, player performance, and teams expectations. In this case, the contracts length would be more of a positive. MacKinnon's contract before the extension is a good example. Though, this would be AFTER they have broken out, not projections. So, like Kotkaniemi who could break out more, wouldn't be getting a spot just because he's 22 and signed long term. Similarly, you probably won't see a lot of contracts that expire this year as having that value signed a little longer makes the contract better. Also, entry level contracts are excluded.
Centers: Draisaitl, Elias Lindholm, Ryan Hartman. I think Drai's points versus his contract speak for themselves now. Man, Lindholm has just fit in in Calgary. The only knock is that he only has this year and next, but for the season's he's had I think 4.85 is a great deal. Ryan Hartman may have had a one year wonder, but even if he hovers closer to 35-40 I think that is a great return on investment for under 2 million dollars. He was a 1st rounder, and maybe playing with Kaprizov has helped unlock that next level for him. I think Wild fans are pretty happy with him right now, and glad to have him for two more years at that price. Finally, Stephenson took a little longer but he's gone up in scoring each year in Vegas. For a cap strapped team, having someone under 3 million who can score 64 points for two more years is great. Honrable mentions: David Kampf (been great in Toronto), Teddy Blueger.
Left Wing: Kyle Connor, William Carrier, Brandon Hagel. This one is a little different as I think LW was tougher overall. A lot of very good deals just turned over to new extensions, which I again am avoiding similar to new FA deals, as I think the sample size for performances to those contracts is too small. Anyways, first off is Kyle Connor. Now, Connor is getting paid a lot of money compared to my other picks, so why him? Connor is only 25, and his contract keeps him with the Jets until 2026 at age 29. He is only making about a million less players both older than him and younger than him are getting (Forsberg, Tkachuk(s), Gaudreau) and just put up a 93 point, 47 goal season at age 25. He is realistically a possible 50 goal scorer who could be under market value for more years to come. I guess I am high on him, but I think 50 goal upside at 7 million is crazy value with the going rates for players these days. Next we have Carrier, an original Golden Knight. He doesn't score a ton, but he is relatively cheap and good bottom 6 depth for the team.. He's hovered around 20 points for them the past 3 seasons, and will only be 29 and the end of his contract in two years. He's a big part of their identity, a good forechecker, and maybe taps into a little more offense (say 25-30 points?) if they can bounce back. Finally is Hagel, who Tampa paid a hefty price for. But they did so because he is 24 and under contract for this year and next, while still being an RFA at the end of it. He didn't get off to quite as good a start as previous Tampa rentals, but I think a whole season with the team will allow him to gel better. Honorable mentions: Marcus Foligno (a little older and concerns of a one year wonder at his age, but provides other value beyond offense), Dillon Dube (if he really breaks out, say 40 or more points, he takes a spot here), and Brad Marchand (he will be missing a chunk of the season and is much older at 34 with two more years, but undeniably a very good player. Could argue him over one of Hagel/Carrier, I went with them due to age, health and role.)
Right Wing: This was surprisingly tough. Another case of lots of good contracts being extended to new ones this year. First off was Buchnevich, who had a great year and definitely seems to be earning his contract the Blues gave him last year. Its a lot of money for a cap strapped team, but its worth paying over point per game players that money, which he was. The contract goes until 2025 when he will be 30, a reasonable length. Secondly is Toffoli, who did pretty well in Calgary. His cap hit isn't horrible considering he scored 23 points in 37 games with the Flames, and he is a good defensive player. It only extends in next season, when he will be 32, so they aren't going to be dealing with any really rough years. Solid pickup as they try to reload to compete this year. Finally is Bjorkstrand. This one was tough to choose between, but here is my logic for it: Seattle didn't give up much for him at all, he scored nearly 30 goals on Columbus and is usually consistent for 20 on a team that needed a boost to its scoring depth, is also good defensively, and he is under contract until 2026 when he will be 31, a pretty reasonable age. Seattle isn't really in a cap crunch, and can afford to see how he plays for the next few years. I also think his +/- was skewed by the Columbus D and goaltending. Honorable mentions: Drake Batherson (I think if he repeats his performance of last year he could bump Toffoli or Bjorkstand. Good length and lower cap hit.), Tuch, and Arvidsson. All three need to stay a bit healthier to jump up on the list.
Right-Handed Defensemen: Cale Makar, Rasmus Andersson, Brandon Carlo. Makar honestly could've gotten more. The fact he is paid less than Werenski, Jones, McAvoy, Nurse, Karlsson is absurd. He is the best in the NHL. If he had the same contract as one of those players, I would not have included him (say he got 10 million) because it would be what I'd expect. He is being paid under market value, hence his spot here, until he is 28. Rasmus Andersson is a solid defenseman that seems to get better every year for Calgary. He is signed until 2026 when he will be 29 for less than 5 million after a huge breakout year with 50 points. If he can play at or above that, Calgary will be in great shape moving forward. Brandon Carlo is one of the best defensive d-men right now, and he is (fairly) overshadowed in Boston by McAvoy. He is signed until 2027 when he will be 30 for just over 4 million dollars, a great price for what he does. Honorable mentions: Adam Fox (Fox is also incredible. The main reason I didn't include him is because he got paid what I think the market is for him, nearly 10 million. Makar got the spot because of his discount. Please don't take it as an insult.), Aaron Ekblad (He has less years remaining and has had some major injuries the past two years. Undeniably has broken out though, and crucial for the Florida blue line), Brett Pesce, Noah Dobson, Matt Roy.
Left-Handed Defensemen: Hedman, D. Toews, Siegenthaler. Hedman is older than most players I've chosen for these AGMs but he's also Victor Hedman. Having him signed at under 8 million for 3 more years until he's only 34 is a steal. Plain and simple. Devon Toews had a great year, and it can't be ignored how he helped Colorado put it together. He only has this year and next on this contract, but I think his play earned him this spot. He will only be 30 at the end of it as well. Finally is Siegenthaler, where I sort of broke my rules a little bit. Though his current contract expires this season, New Jersey already signed him to a 3.4x5 starting next year, and at its end in 2028 he will be only 31 years old. I think that is a great price for probably the most underrated defensive defensemen in the NHL, and ends at a good time to evaluate his play in his later career. Honorable mentions: Q. Hughes (I think he could bump Toews from this next year, he is very good but I want to see another year of upward trajectory. I think he will do it), Heiskanen (still sort of waiting for that offensive breakthrough like the 2020 playoffs. Also think he will do it and could claim a spot, but right now its just an average contract to me), Ryan Lindgren, Chychrun (needs a bounceback), Hanifin.
Goalies: Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, Thatcher Demko. I think for both Shesterkin and Saros, the price they are paid is an absolute steal for their performances, and for 3 more years of control. Demko is right behind them on that next tier with 4 years of control, and improvement every year. Honorable mentions: Hellebuyck (age and less years), Vasi (because he's Vasi and worth pretty much all of that money), Ilya Sorokin (he has a smaller sample size, and only has this year and next when he becomes a UFA.)
Let me know what you think! Remember this is about the value of their contracts, not saying these are the best at their positions.
Using Bacon's WAR model to quantify contract goodness, the best contracts in the league are... Troy Terry and Chad Ruhwedel.
I'm not really interested in just "WAR points per dollar" as much as things like age, team control, room to grow, and years on the contract. Obviously Terry played well above his contracts worth, but he only has one year left at that contract so it seems stupid to just use expiring contracts.
I would've put Pitlick if he had another year of control, he looks good in Montreal. I value the years of control the team has, the production they are creating for their role, and the need of the team. Its not about the best players who are making 12 million dollars. For example, see Draisaitl. Absolutely a steal at 8.5. For a bottom 6 guy with speed, forechecking, defense, and a little bit of offense, is two years at 1.4 not good? Especially when there are Deslauriers and Gudbransons out there.
I would've put Pitlick if he had another year of control, he looks good in Montreal. I value the years of control the team has, the production they are creating for their role, and the need of the team. Its not about the best players who are making 12 million dollars. For example, see Draisaitl. Absolutely a steal at 8.5. For a bottom 6 guy with speed, forechecking, defense, and a little bit of offense, is two years at 1.4 not good? Especially when there are Deslauriers and Gudbransons out there.
I'd much rather Jake Guentzel at 2x$6M off the top of my head.
Edit: or Svechnikov signed under $8M through his prime. Carrier is a fair value deal more than a good contract IMO.
I'd much rather Jake Guentzel at 2x$6M off the top of my head.
Edit: or Svechnikov signed under $8M through his prime. Carrier is a fair value deal more than a good contract IMO.
Fair enough I guess. To me, a 6 million dollar player on the cap strapped penguins is a given. I'd look more at like Blueger for them who I think I mentioned. Svech, I like him, but is that a "good contract" or is it the standard contract now?
I’ll take mcavoy at 9.5 over carlo at 4.1 all day.
McAvoy is getting paid what is expected of the top 1RD. Carlo's 4.1 is a steal for your young 2RD when you have contracts like Risto, OEL, Trouba out there in the same roles. You are missing the point.
Pelech is a great defenseman, but I think his contract running until he is 35 made me a little wary. You are right though, for the time being its really good. Definitely could swap with Toews probably. I also want to see the Pelech/Pulock pairing play in the post-Trotz era. I see your point though.
McAvoy is getting paid what is expected of the top 1RD. Carlo's 4.1 is a steal for your young 2RD when you have contracts like Risto, OEL, Trouba out there in the same roles. You are missing the point.
I thought the market had kind of reset with the Karlsson and doughty deals etc, but it didn’t given what mcavoy, makar, and fox are making. To think that they’re all getting right around what subban got a century ago is nuts.
vr1995 a aimé ceci.
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