I don't see Calgary easily letting Johnny Gaudreau walk away, or Johnny wanting to walk away if Calgary makes a deep run this year, my best guess is they try to get Lucic to wave his NTC to make the room, and then at minimum match Tkachuks deal

I don't see Monahan fitting at all in Ottawa. He'd be 4C in Ottawa, and he's not a good option as a top 6 Winger addition.

Heard from the Flames camp that the extension is done already

If Johnny walks why move Monahan?

So you're not cap strapped and have space to make moves if necessary during the season.

They could just move Monahan when they want to make that in-season move.

If they didn't move him they'd actually be over the cap right now by a little bit. I think they'd try to keep that cap flexibility before the season starts.

It's a bit harder to move a 6M contract in-season compared to off season also.

That's based on your specific team only.

You gave Kylington a horrible contract. Give him 2.5M for 1 year then he can prove he is worth more while Calgary retains his rights. You also overpaid Gudbranson a bit and Tkachuk could also be paid less too

How is 3.5M horrible lol? Maybe he'll get a little less, but he's got arbitration. Ethan Bear got 2M last year and he's had a better year than him. Same with Fabbro who got 2.4M & Bean who got 2.3M. I'd say around 3M.

I doubt Tkachuk gets less than 10M. His brother just got 8.3M and he's not nearly as good as Matt. You're gonna be buying up a lot of UFA years too.

It seems like you're just hoping everyone signs hometown discounts with your team.

No point in moving monahan if JG walks.
JG walking would force the flames to re-tool or re-build in which case they're not paying to move out contracts.
Team is not a playoff team without JG, especially if you're not getting another big FA to replace him.

Why would it force a rebuild or retool lol? You'd still have a good team. Plenty of promising young guys like Pelletier to step up. You're still in a weak division too.

Trading Monahan would let you sign an additional FA or trade for someone.

I mean there's no way on knowing for sure until it happens but.... JG drives ALOT of our offense. I can almost guarantee that Lindholm and Chukys production would regress without JG and there's a good chance we wouldn't have a PPG player on the team.
The NHL is a very competitive league. I don't think you can lose a player as important as JG is to the flames, not replace them and expect success.

There's always a chance that a prospect will step up big, but that's far from a guarantee.
If you replace him a high end FA like Forsberg, then sure it could work but you didn't do that here.

I can't overstate how important JG is to the flames success.

3.5 isnt the horrible part. Its 2 years that is horrible, walks him straight to UFA. You give him a 1 year prove it deal before giving a long term contract.

Why would Tkachuk get 80M? He hasn't earned that. He should not get more than Point.

Im not hoping at all, I think logically

Ok, then 1 year 3Mish. That's not really changing how much cap is available next year by much.

Point plays for Tampa. Huge difference in taxes. Tkachuk loses almost half his check in Calgary, while Point only loses 40% playing in Tampa. A 9.5M contract in Tampa is about worth a 10.75M contract in Calgary. Tampa & Florida are always gonna have cheaper player contracts compared to the rest of the league. Not contracts you should look at for comparison, unless you are one of those low tax teams.

How does 3.5M down to 3M not change much? Thats 500k of the ~700k you are short on space for Monahan

Huge difference? It would be a 600k difference and that doesnt even account for them being paid in USD while living in Canada. You overblow the income tax thing Duchene and Bob both signed what are considered overpayments in their respective no state tax teams.

My armchair GM has 21 players. Teams usually carry 22 so they'd still be over the cap or right at the cap.

Yes it's a huge difference from Tampa to Calgary. Losing out on 600k is a big deal lol. It's not overblown. It's why players usually put California teams + Canadian teams on their no trade lists. Bobby Ryan & Marc Methot did a good podcast about NTCs.

Was Duchene seen as an overpay? It was considered a pretty good deal at the time. You can look back at the CapFriendly post and a lot of people were saying steal and that he took less. Remember this was pre-covid. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/245886 A lot of people expected 9Mish.

Nobody said low tax teams never overpay guys, it's just players are going to keep more of their money. If you want to project Tkachuk's next contract look at Ottawa & Toronto for comparisons instead of Tampa & Florida. He's gonna want more than just his QO that's only 700k more than his brother got.

I find it interesting that you bring up pre-covid as a reason for Duchene's cap but don't think that applies to Tkachuk