Realistic in the title yet you have Jost going for a 4th line rental...that is an absolutely not by the avs

Jost has been a replacement level forward on a team where almost every players underlying numbers get a boost. Right now Jost is a 4th line caliber forward, this is a fair trade.

Pending UFA vs an RFA under a team friendly contract and RFA years left

No its not a fair trade even in the slightest, this is an easy decline. Cal Clutterbuck is not very good, hes basically Darren Helm.

lol You're overrating Jost, his contract is not team friendly. He's not even worth 2 mill right now.

Clutterbuck is a lot better than Helm, the numbers don't lie. He's also better than Compher.

im not over rating Jost in the slightest, its just common sense. Avs are not trading a cost controlled RFA for a 4th line Pending UFA rental.
Numbers dont lie, they are the same player. A 3.5m version of a 1m player in Helm

You are over valuing and over rating Clutterbuck

Highly doubt Edmonton is in for Mayfield at that price. If the 2023 pick was a late rounder (5-7) then maybe - it’s still a slight overpay by Edmonton but no deal is ever 50/50. As is, there’s no way Mayfield is returning a young roster player and 2 2nds. Bellows isn’t worth much so he’s a wash in this deal

It's not common sense. There's a reason why Sakic is interested in clutterbuck. Analytically Clutterbuck is one of the best defensive forwards in the league. It's very easy to prove you wrong, here are the numbers:

Goals above Replacement:
Clutterbuck: 0.5
Compher: -0.1
Helm: -2.5
Jost: -3.2

Wins above replacement
Clutterbuck: 0.1
Compher: 0
Helm: -0.4
Jost: -0.6

So you are believing what Dater is saying? The guy who has been wrong every time trying to link a player to the Avs.
oh boy, if that is what you are going off of, I have some bad news for you.

Maybe dont believe what the guy who lost his press credentials covering the avs bc he was doing such a bad job and annoying the players with his questions

also this is not how you do a proper analysis of players, no context of GAR and WAR(which is not a good stat to be using).

I honestly think that if when you look at it from the right angle, Bellows & Yamamoto have similar values. Both are mid/late 1st round picks that are 23 and haven't really put it together with their original teams yet after steamrolling through juniors and putting up good numbers in the AHL. Both are a little bit worse at driving possession than the rest of their teams (between 2.5-45% worse in CORSI/Fenwick numbers across the board between the two). Bellows hasn't played the way the Islanders want him to, so he's had trouble sticking in the lineup; Yamamoto has been given every chance to succeed (over 75% of his even strength ice time this season is with McDavid, Draisaitl, or both) but hasn't been able to come back to that level he was right before the pandemic (40 points in 102 games since the beginning of 2020 after putting up 26 in 27 before the pandemic break.) Both are still RFA, with Yama having one less year of control left. I think these two guys would be the classic "change of scenery" move for two former first round picks.

I've also been staunch in saying that the Islanders should hold out for a 1st for Mayfield (please let's not have this argument *yet again*, just accept that the Isles like Mayfield and have no problem with him being on the team next year so acquiring teams gotta pay up), so I'd say downgrading to 2 2nds from a 1st would make up any value difference between Bellows and Yamamoto

The fact that Yamamoto has had success before puts his value ahead of Bellows’ - it’s likely be around Bellows + 3rd round pick for Yamamoto. That at least suggests that he has potential to be a point producer in the league. Bellows hasn’t done anything. The only potential you have to go off of for him was scoring at a different level. But that doesn’t mean he’ll do it in the NHL and he hasn’t shown anything to date to say he would.

I'd argue that any GM worth his salt should point to that run and start screaming "small sample size!" Is it proof that he can produce with good players? Yup, he played most of his even strength minutes that season with Draisatil & RNH(again, over 75% of ES time with them) and was basically a PPG player. Was he a candidate for regression of the season had continued on? Look up his shooting percentage and tell me what you think (11 goals on 44 shots - 25%!!!)

I don't disagree that if you did just Bellows for Yamamoto, the Isles have to add. But if you believe, as I do, that the Islanders shouldn't take anything less than a 1st for Mayfield straight up, I think the value evens out here. You *could* do Bellows/Mayfield/3rd for Yamamoto/1st, but I think you can also find common ground at Bellows/Mayfield for Yamamoto/2 2nds.

The Avs could use Clutterbuck but even with retention you have picks on the wrong side.