Mete for a 3rd, Brannstrom for a third?

I would be shocked if Zaitsev is on this roster next season. If anything, he'll be bought out if they can't find a trading partner.

That being said... a favorable buyout option is Colin White. 875k over the next 6 years (with a -625k in cap hit in year 3) isn't too horrible. The emergence of Paul as a 3rd line center has become a pleasant surprise.

Also, I'd scratch MDZ in favor of bringing back Holden for a year.

I would do all that too just not betting on it from Dorion

Pull a Eugene and save your money.

Do you really think Paul is gonna get that much? Imo he doesn't provide enough offensively to get more than 2mil, and even that's probably a stretch. Bottom six PKers do not get 1.45mil raises when they provide no offense, and if he wants that he can leave.

I can see something like 6 years at 2.25 mill . He provides defence tho and grittiness. Look at what Dickinson got

He was also younger, had leverage as the Canucks had just traded for him, and is underperforming his contract. I'd hope that we just let him walk if he wants more than 2. There are plenty of veteran defensive bottom 6 guys like that out there every year, and we have options in the system too (Formenton should get a bigger role, Greig might make the team, if we draft a C with a top 5 pick then Pinto likely moves down to 3C, White won't be injured, etc.).

I really hope we get one of Wright, Kemell, Cooley or Savoie. Geekie and Miroshnichenko would be alright too I guess

There was no return in this ACGM, just that they'd get traded



Unfortunately... DJ is a big Zaitsev fan so I'd be shocked if they get rid of him.

And yeah Holden over MDZ is a no brainer even if NH is going to be 35 y/o.



Nick Paul will 100% get over 2 M$. It's not even a question.

Paul Gaustad is a good comparable and made 2.3 x 4 years from 2008-09 to 2011-12 and 3.25 x 4 years from 2012-13 to 2015-16, which was a C.H.% of 5.42% at the moment of the extension, which would be ~4.42 today

I'm not sayng Nick Paul will cost that much but just to give you an idea. Points are very important for players salaries but it goes a bit further than that

Maybe not everybody will understand that players like Nick Paul are not "easily replaceable", they improve the overall quality of your bottom-6. Teams and Nick Paul's agent will know that.

I'd be happy with 4 years x 3.0 (not too long, not too much)

No I was just asking whatb it would be if they were traded.

3rd too much for Mete

3rd for Brannstrom not enough. He'll be worth a 2nd next season. For now, he'll be worth more but as usual Dorion will wait until the last minute to depreciate his assets the most, for some reason

I guess.

Okay but let's talk about this. I'll preface it by saying I'm a fan of White and think they should not buy him out, and that this will be long.

TL;DR - I'd disagree that Paul has emerged as any sort of reliable 3C, I'd argue he's been the opposite of a pleasant surprise this year, and I'd claim that White is better in just about every facet of the game.

Last year, Paul put up 20 P in 56 GP (0.36 PPG) playing 16:05 ATOI. At 5v5, he had 0.98 P/60. To dig further, he had 1.90 xGF/60 (but 2.05 GF/60) and 2.23 xGA/60 (but 2.29 GA/60). Those stats tell us that he was really bad at generating offense, and it showed, and he was really good at preventing opportunities, and it showed. He allowed 24 scoring chances against per 60 minutes. This year he has fallen off a cliff of sorts, and while it's not all his fault (that D is going to let anybody down), he's partly to blame for his results. He has 3 P in 15 GP playing 17:32 ATOI. At 5v5 he has 0.86 P/60. Digging further, he has 1.91 xGF/60 (but 1.71 GF/60) and 2.54 xGA/60 (but 3.99 GA/60!!!!!). To summarize that, it's suggesting he's scoring less and is somehow even worse offensively, and he's far far worse defensively letting in almost 4 goals per 60 minutes of play. Ouch. He's allowing 32 scoring chances against per 60 minutes while playing, so his defensive game has dropped off a bit. Again, some of that is on the goaltending and defenders, but it's also not entirely written off like that. Interestingly, he's playing at center this year after being almost exclusively a winger last year. Eye test, he looked spectacular last year and we all adored him. This year, he's been sort of iffy and has had good games and bad, but Twitter, here, HFBoards and Reddit have all been pointing out more bad games than good with him. He's not a 2C, and he's likely not a 3C either. He's a winger who has had a disappointing start to the season.

Now that's just half of the equation, because there's also White. Last year, White put up 18 P in 45 GP (0.40 PPG) playing 14:41 ATOI. At 5v5, he had 1.15 P/60. To dig further, he had 2.19 xGF/60 (but 2.10 GF/60) and 2.24 xGA/60 (but 2.62 GA/60). Those stats tells us that he was okay offensively and he played well defensively. He allowed 27 scoring chances against per 60 minutes. He also had the more important and difficult task of playing center on a line that faced a lot of defensive shutdown minutes so our other lines could feast a bit more. This is important because Paul played on the exact same line but as a winger with less responsibility. Amongst forwards who played 100+ minutes last year for the Sens, White lead the team in Corsi (Paul was 4th), was 3rd in SF% (Paul was 8th), was 6th in xGF% (Paul was 12th), and they were 11th (White) and 12th (Paul) in SCF%. Both had 12 defensive zone starts per 60 minutes and around 9 offensive zone starts per 60. Literally any stat you look at, they're either right around each other or White is clearly ahead. I think one of the biggest reasons people dismiss White is because of his contract, in which he's probably overpaid about $1-2M or so given his current play. If it wasn't for that, maybe people wouldn't immediately crap on his play because he's actually one of our best possession players and has been demonstrably better than Paul in most cases.

So having said all of that, I think White's the better player and I think Paul has shown this year that he's a very questionable center and would be better on the wing. Paul is 26, turning 27 in March, and White is 24, turning 25 in January. Paul was White's age when he became an NHL regular, whereas White has a fantastic season alongside Tkachuk under his belt followed by some inconsistencies when thrown around the lineup. Stick him at 3C and give him reliable linemates (like Formenton and Brown) and on an improved PP2 and see how he does then. Would have been this year if not for his injury, but the absolute worst thing to be done is to buy him out and watch him go kick butt elsewhere. Especially if it's in favour of overplaying Nick Paul at 3C.

And one last thing? White seems to be the glue for the team. He's widely loved by everybody in the room and they often use him as a joke punching bag (which he happily takes). He's tight with Brady, with Bath, with Chabot, with the entire core. Since being drafted, his leadership has been commended, and he was flagged at the draft as being a potential letter-wearer in the future. For a young team in need of leadership, he would not be the guy I'd be sending out.

Dude, I wish I could like this post twice. Great in depth. Thank you for this.

You're right that White is the better player overall than Paul. It's just he hasn't lived up to the contract. I don't fault him for signing it though. I've always been a proponent of the player getting the money because the CBA effed them in that regard. But, we can agree he's an overpaid 3rd line center right now (Pinto and Norris are the clear cut 1-2). His contract is also the most feasible financially to be bought out (thinking for Eugene here).

The bar, I think, has been set pretty high on Whitey with good reason. That first full year with him in between Tkachuk and Stone was wonderful to see and set him up for success (one could argue that both players haven't been the same since Stone left but whatever). Everything after that year has been sub-par to say the least. Being jumbled around the lineup with no firm grasp of what your role might be is tough, specially with the amount of moving parts in the organization around a rebuild.

I guess, having the option of Paul in the 3C is nice to have, put it that way. Given his chemistry and success with Connor Brown.

Speaking of room chemistry; you're right, it is important, specially for a young team. IIANM, does Paul have a letter on his sweater? Paul has been around for all iterations of this team the past 8 years, basically. He has chemistry with all these guys from the his days in the minors. He's looked at for leadership and kind of reminds me of Smitty in that regards.

Just want to express my gratitude with your response though, seriously.