I think VAN is at a cross roads. If everything were to go their way I think they could become a contender in 3-4 years. Without everything going their way, have they already passed their window?
Issues.
Issue #1. With JB and the owners unwilling to commit to a rebuild over the past 5 years they have not accumulated enough young/cap friendly assets to become a contender. I feel for a team to become a true contender a mix of ELCs and players playing above their contract value is required, unfortunately VAN lacks both these assets. Not only does VAN lack these assets but some of their best contract value players are going to be UFA/RFA’s in the next 2 seasons (EP, QH, BH, JTM, BB) and will get significant raises. This will eat up a large amount of the cap space going forward.
Issue #2. Aging players. These players are not currently “old”, however if the team is 3-4 years away from contending they will be in their late 20’s – early 30’s. According to statistics most players hit their peak by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to decline more noticeably. Horvat will be 27 years old next season, Miller 28, Demko 26 and Boeser 25. If were looking at current supporting players signed for at least 3 more years Myers is already 30, Schmidt 29 and Pearson 28. Staticlly speaking, we should expect a regression from these players going forward, not improvement.
Issue #3 contender quality players. There’s no debating VAN has some very good and exciting young players, but will they ever hit the same level as players on current contenders? Will EP ever be a MacKinnon or Point? Boeser a Rantanen or Kucherov? Hughes a Headman or Makar? Who’s going to become the Landeskog’s Donskoi’s, Girard’s, Toews’s, Kadri’s, Saad’s, Burakovsky’s. How about the Stamkos’, Sergachev’s, Cernak’s, Cirelli’s, Palat’s McDonagh’s etc? Yes Hoglander, Podkolzin and Rathbone look like nice pieces, but even if all 3 hit VAN is still well short of the sheer quantity of quality players. With the Cancuks prospects cupboard being BARE, and not having draft picks stockpiled, how do they accumulate these assests? Unless the team is able to make some extremely tilted trades I cannot see how they would possibly be able to accumulate the amount of quality assets needed to become legitimate contender before a good chunk of their core ages out.
Sure the Canucks can become a playoff team, possibly a team that can consistently win 1-2 maybe even 3 rounds, but can they be a TRUE contender? Or are they destined for mediocracy? One could argue the Canucks simply don’t have enough time to acquire enough cap quality assets to support their current core of players for a cup run.
I played devils advocate here, but Canucks fans know at a time where there is consumer confidence issues regarding the team, a rebuild at this time will never happen.
Horvat doesn’t pull the 15th OA pick and lundkvist
2021 is considered a fairly weak and unpredictable draft, draft value is not the same as a normal year.
Either way Horvat is worth a mid 1st and an A prospect, I feel the trade meets that criteria.
2021 is considered a fairly weak and unpredictable draft, draft value is not the same as a normal year.
Either way Horvat is worth a mid 1st and an A prospect, I feel the trade meets that criteria.
I haven't seen a lot of Zibby so I cant comment on his value.
Horvat's a very good 200 foot player well known for his defensive play, always plays other teams top lines, takes all important faceoffs (often in his own end), and plays his best in big games. I would be shocked if he didn't net at least a mid first and an A prospect.
Agree completely with your analysis in the Team Explanation. However, Los Angeles isn't J. T. Miller away from contending, so it would be foolhardy to trade away two such good futures (including the chance, however small, at three great prospects in next year's draft) for him.
I agree with your assessment completely. The current management group has really botched this "rebuild" for the foreseeable future and aggressive action is required if the current core is to be put in a position to win a cup.
Horvat doesn’t pull the 15th OA pick and lundkvist
Oh for sure he does. The guy is a beast any GM would ante up for. Face offs, PK, shutdown player capable of the odd highlight reel goal. Bo would put a lot of teams over the top and into contender territory.
Oh for sure he does. The guy is a beast any GM would ante up for. Face offs, PK, shutdown player capable of the odd highlight reel goal. Bo would put a lot of teams over the top and into contender territory.
Ok and lundkvist is an amazing offensive defenseman. In fact he was the best dman under the age of 20 in the SHL which is playing against men.
Ok and lundkvist is an amazing offensive defenseman. In fact he was the best dman under the age of 20 in the SHL which is playing against men.
I get why you wouldn't want to, but that doesn't mean it's not a fair deal. Many Canuck fans wouldn't like it either, which is usually the sign of an even trade.
Agree completely with your analysis in the Team Explanation. However, Los Angeles isn't J. T. Miller away from contending, so it would be foolhardy to trade away two such good futures (including the chance, however small, at three great prospects in next year's draft) for him.
Fair comment, the trade there was based on rumors of interest in Eichel, if there is any merit to those rumors I thought LA may want to expedite the rebuild . A similar package from any other team would also be acceptable.
I agree with your analysis. We all know this isn't going to happen after the past 8 years but this would be the best way to set up as a contender (lock in Quinn and Petey on 8 year deals prior to these trades lol). Horvat would have a massive bidding war it would be interesting to see what he returns. 2 years left at 5.5m for a C that could put most contenders over the top would be every GM's dream. I'd imagine Vegas would be willing to pony up A LOT.
Boldirev a aimé ceci.
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