See’s “Draft Thots”

Its a bold strategy, let's see if it pays off for them.

Wanna finish filling out your roster so I don't need to move this to the SJS subforum? I don't want to immediately dust this because you have some trades here for a hypothetical scenario but neither the discussion or title are wholly relevant to the rest of the AGM. Just something we've been asked to keep an eye on.

In terms of actual discussion, I'll refer to this source: https://bluebulletreport.com/2020/10/05/2020-nhl-draft-rankings/

The #2 pick has a value of 87.31. The combination of picks #6 and #26 (based on where NYI is in the standings by points percentage today) has a value of 59.93. The Sharks are being cheated of value equivalent to the #10 pick here. I'm not particularly sure how New Jersey bridges that gap without Ty Smith or Holtz.

Secondly, the Sharks - should they have pick #2 - only stand to benefit with the quality of prospect available to them. Any of Beniers, Clarke, Eklund, Guenther, Hughes, Power, or Wallstedt would be phenomenal picks for this organization. I don't think San Jose stands to gain much by trading back here. Just take whomever management deems is the BPA and start accumulating pieces for a long rebuild. If anything, a defender taken this year should have more than enough time to over-ripen and be NHL ready by the time the Sharks are done accumulating top picks.

Assuming the standings stay roughly the same, I don't think it would make much sense for Ottawa to do that. The difference between a late 1st (26th in this case), and Ottawa's own 2nd (33rd) is pretty negligible. Definitely not worth an additional 2nd, and probably not really worth moving up at all.

I don't think the value is super unfair but doubtful NJ is interested. From what GM Tom Fitzgerald has hinted at the Islanders pick might be used as a trade piece for a ready now player since the team wants to compete next year. Only way I'd do the trade is if VAN picks above NJ and below SJS. I want Luke Hughes and I really don't want him in VAN.

Given we've won 2 in our last 10, we won't be picking at 6OA. Odds look like we'll end up at 1-3OA so you'll have a crack at Power or Hughes.

Sure, no problem.

Also, thanks for that pick value insight.

I don't think there is a huge difference between #2 and #6...at least not big enough to lose that second 1st pick.

Just going by consensus rankings, I think I'd rather have 6/26 over 2.

Consensus Rankings
1. Matty Beniers
2. Owen Power
3. Luke Hughes
4. William Eklund
5. Dylan Guenther
6. Brandt Clarke
7. Kent Johnson
8. Jesper Wallstedt
9. Simon Edvinssson
10. Fabian Lysell
11. Aatu Raty
12. Chaz Lucius
13. Cole Sillinger
14. Oskar Olausson
15. Simon Robertsson
16. Carson Lambos
17. Xavier Bourgault
18. Nikita Chibrikov
19. Mason MacTavish
20. Zachary L'Heureux
21. Stanislav Svozil
22. Francesco Pinelli
23. Matt Coronato
24. Logan Stankoven
25. Zachary Bolduc
26. Isak Rosen
27. Zach Dean
28. Sebastian Cossa
29. Daniil Chayka
30. Corson Ceulemans
31. Sam Tuomaala
32. Fyodor Svechkov

The draft pick value charts don't really work for NHL trades at this point in draft since there are so few picks traded in top-10.
There are too few comps - and drafts vary year to year at top of the list.
They hold weight when you get to later rounds.
But picks in top half of 1st round are rarely moved.

TBH, if SJ does win 2OA, and Beniers isn't taken 1OA, I'd definitely keep the pick and take him. Matty Beniers has a style that looks like a combo of Patty Marleau and Logan Couture.

Yes pls. I'd be thrilled with either of those players.

Those pick values take data from every draft since the league expanded to 30 teams iirc so like they are considering historical data to an extent.

I think the last point you made is key here: the last top-10 pick I remember being moved was the pick used to select Lias Anderson.

Yes, I was talking really about pick(s)-for-pick(s) swaps.
Other leagues see plenty of them, and NHL sees a lot in later rounds, but few in top-10
Over recent drafts here is the highest pick exchanged in pick-for-pick scenario....
(last top-10 was in 2008 when Isles dropped back twice)

2020: 19
2019: 11
2018: 22
2017: 26
2016: 11
2015: 24
2014: 20
2013: 18
2012: 14
2011: 22
2010: 15
2009: 12
2008: 5

Leafs decline. They like Kerfoot.