We hear so much positive about most of these players, I hope it translates to successful contributions for the Habs. So the rule of thumb is 50% make it and 30% play over 300 games in the NHL. It will be interesting to see which ones they are.

So impressed with the job they have done drafting the last few years. Not sure there is a team that has a better list than this.

very interested to see what Farrell does in the NCAA next year

I’m not sure where you’re getting your figures but they’re lower than you listed. Here’s a good article.

Source
https://www.dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

The one guy I look forward to seeing that is potentially a huge sleeper is Mysak. He was an unknown for most of his draft year but put up 25 points in 22 games as a 17 Y.O. in the OHL when he came over. Looking back through his resume is impressive. As a 14 Y.O.playing in a U16 league he put up 57 goals and 89 points in 37 games before transferring to a u18 league where he put up 10 points in 4 games. The kid looks like a steal due to the unknown aspect of his career.

What do you mean unknown for most of his draft year? He was the highest regarded Czech prospect at the start of the year and played pro in his D-1.

Unknown ? He was listed to go out in the 1st round lol
What I liked the most about him it’s he looks like Lehkonen, really good defensively, good IQ. Can get chance, he just need more finish than Lehky

I was just going off something I read last year that said he was something of an unknown heading into the draft.

That is a super long article and I did not read it all. If I knew someone was going to critic my numbers I would have spent more time doing a more in-depth diagnostic. Now please pay attention. I DID NOT say 50% of the NHL draft, I said 50% of ONLY those ten players will make it. For example, the list of 10 players listed in this post does not take into account there were 39 players drafted by MTL during the draft years of those names found in this list of top ten. So, I already excluded 29 names. I am saying of only the ten names about 50% will make it and 30% of ONLY the ten names NOT the 39 drafted players will play over 300 games. So if you ADD the 29 discarded obviously your ratios and percentages will drop.

That’s not how statistics are calculated in any research and I merely commented as your figures are still off a bit and you used 300 GP as a qualifier while the article is 99 in the visualize with the exception of one for sample purposes. You don’t even need to read the article as there are multiple graphs that do a good job of visualizing the exponential relation of draft pick success. Technically just looking at one graph paints the picture but I like providing sources for any clarification/education purposes as this is the technical rule of thumb.

When performing a study/research/model you need static information (draft pick slot) and measures (games played, goals, assist, etc.) of said samples. The measures are what you’d use to determine if said sample fits your criteria in this case 99+ games played or yours 300+ games played. Just because you cut your population down from roughly ~39 to top 10 doesn’t mean anything against my statement as their draft slots are static so no the chances of 50% of the top 10 guys playing a minimum of 300 games isn’t realistic. What the article says is if all of your top 10 prospects were all average first round draft picks (eg 14-18 overall) on average you’d have a 37.3% chance at getting 99+ games played on 3.73 players or 4 if you round up. How many of those guys are first rounders because as you go down so do the chances of success for instance its 17.2% for a second rounder driving your average further down.