But how could he get more than Lehner when he came back from a season he’s been injured ? We’ll see, but I would be surprise a 2nd +
Just to make sure I think Grubauer is worth more than a 3rd + 5th but no 2nd +
As Mergus said below Grubauer's value has only gone up as he's proved he can be a starter. He may only have one year term, but he's still young enough where a long-term extension isn't hugely risky (as it is with other UFA 30+ goalies).
A big factor is also his caphit. For a starting goalie a $3.33m caphit is excellent value, especially in flat cap league. If we made him available I'm sure several teams would be interested simple due to that low caphit alone.
As for the "2nd+", obviously the need for a + will vary with how high the pick is in the 2nd round, and also which year the pick is in. A "+" can also vary quite dramatically in value, from a 3rd to 7th or from a B prospect to a throw-in C prospect... or no + at all if the 2nd is high.
Grubauer cost the Avalanche a 2nd round pick and the Brooks Orpik buyout. He’s a couple years older but has proven he can be a starting goalie in that time. I’m not sure you can argue that he should be worth less now than he was 2 years ago. Maybe a saturated goalie market this offseason hurts his value a little bit. Regarding the injuries - goalies take wear and tear. I wouldn’t put too much stock into injury history unless it was something major. Part of it is just bad luck.
I’m curious about why you think it’s unlikely that Colorado trades for Murray? Multiple reporters have at least linked Colorado to Murray. He wouldn’t be my first choice if I were Sakic, but he’s an upgrade in my opinion.
The main reporter who has linked us to Murray is Adrian Dater, who has basically only been speculating without much actual evidence of interest. Ryan Clark is the Avs mouthpiece these days so Dater doesn't really have any insider information.
Sakic and Bednar also said yesterday in an interview that they are happy with the goalies, though they want to change their fitnes regime somewhat as both played injured in the playoffs. Obviously Sakic could be holding his cards close to his chest, but he's usually a pretty straight shooter and it doesn't sound like he's looking to change in net.
Moreover, Murray's contract demands and arbitration eligibility make him a less atractive solution compared to just sticking with Grubauer who has mostly been solid.
We also have Annunen in the pipeline who is looking really promising and has starter potential, so it doesn't really make sense to bring in a guy on a long-term contract. If we did make a change in net it would likely be someone with ~2 year term with a manageable caphit, like Kuemper for example, rather than Murray who will want $6m+ and 5 year+ term.