I never said Corsi was a good stat...

Corsi isn’t the only advanced stat. also if you want a stat that rewards players for getting into higher danger areas in the slot and around the net that’s what expected goals (xG) are

That's not how (smart) stats people think tho, Raw Corsi (and that's not even how Corsi works) is not a particularly great stat, xG is miles better, so if say player A is a defenseman and takes 100 shots and only 1 goes in that's probably not too far from expected vs a forward taking 50 shots it's probably expected that ~5 of those go in, also if a player (@Alex Holtz lol) takes a ton of low danger shots that just end up as turnovers or faceoffs, their (oi)xG won't be that good bc they're the only ones taking shots and they're not very good ones, plus that's not even how advanced stats are used, you're not supposed to just look at the gut with the highest xG and say he's the best, A. You have to adjust for context (which you can do statistically!) To see, ok, are they on the 2019 hurricanes, ok yes, their raw xG totals are likely inflated (and there are formulas and whatnot that takes into account a ton more than that and give a specific number called RAPM, and Michah's magnus model exists doing similar things) and B. You compare xG to actual goals to say, hey, that guy probably is gonna be out for more goals, or hey, that guy is probably gonna be out for fewer goals next year (and there's only 1 guy who's outscored their xG for more than 5 years straight iirc, Patrick Kane, and even then these past two years his xG has really taken a hit while his GF hasn't, suggestion some regression, and a reliance on TM's, a few more who have consistently underperformed bc the models struggle to evaluate net front guys like Hornqvist and Gallagher, and Jordan Staal has no finishing ability) also there are models that are starting to show finishing talent, which says, hey, maybe that guy can consistently over/under perform his xG, or maybe not, so if that guy who scored more on fewer shots just went on an insane luck streak, you can predict that he'll probably fall back to earth (Anthony Duclair, James Neal sort of) and finally, RAPM xGA is simply the best way to judge how good a player is at preventing goals against. (Even better than RAPM GA bc goalies)

Yeah. Carlson was on pace for 89 points this year. Lol people on this site make me laugh. The offensive stats are as easy as looking at points but since that doesn’t support their lame logic they’ll use xga/60. Lol. Hypothetically offense aka point production means nothing when MR hypothetical could have had x amount of points lol

Being honest not reading that essay. Sorry bud 🤷🏻‍♂️

Okay tell me then what’s the difference between expected goals and actual goals? (xG) vs G

Notice how they only talk about last year, his career year. They dont want to talk about every other year where he only had 40+ points 1 time

Unfortunately most advanced stats follow in line with pointlessness. GF/60 is pointless as well. To me the thing that most matters is real actual points. These stats are cool but most of it is fantasy/ hypothetical. Great example Stone and Perron have basically the same p/60 who is the better offensively ?

Offense=goals scored, not points (plus Carlson relied heavily on the PP, didn't even lead the league in 5v5 points for d men, or 5v5 P/60) and GF/60 isn't even that good for d men bc the d men actually have basically zero control over their on ice shooting talent, so xG is probably better (RAPM to adjust for QoT QoC zone starts etc, and per 60 obv)

I literally said what xG are and you know what goals are

Unfortunately most advanced stats follow in line with pointlessness. GF/60 is pointless as well. To me the thing that most matters is real actual points. These stats are cool but most of it is fantasy/ hypothetical. Great example Stone and Perron have basically the same p/60 who is the better offensively ?

G/60 and P/60 are more useless than corsi

Offense is points/ goals since goals are scored based of points. If you want to eliminate the assist that’s fine but it’s a part of hockey so let’s not be cute. There’s an award for points so let’s pretend they are important. PP is considered an offensive situation so idk why this wouldn’t count for offense? Logically it should. I mean you don’t put Orpik on for a powerplay. Why? Oh bc you need players that can score out for it. It’s again OFFENSIVE SITUATION. So let’s ignore him being offensive in the most offensive situation in hockey. Great logic. Lmfao

Yeah one is expected (fantasy) one actually happens. I just wanted you to say it but you won’t bc you know it’ll go against your narrative.

Advanced stats are like watching porn and actual points are like ... well doing the real thing. People like to focus on advance stats when they need to compensate for what they lacking in reality. I don’t think advanced stats are useless but common sense > fantasy / expected stats

On pace for about 47 points. Also you do know points really aren’t the best way to measure offense right. There’s so many random aspects such as
-Teammates
-Competition
-Wether an assist actually mattered to the play
-what if a player created a good chance but a teammate couldn’t finish it?
-did the player do anything else in the offensive zone (possession time, shot attempts, creating chances, getting turnovers, zone entries)
-what state of the game was (was it 5v5?, 5v4?, empty net?, 4v4?)

(And this year wasn't a career year from Carlson...?)

Offense is scoring goals while a player is on the ice, if you can consistently get that to happen, i could care less about points, and I'm not completely disregarding the PP, but you are far more likely to be on for goals and get points on the PP, so I don't think it's fair to compare guys who get PP1 time with guys that don't, and there's a separate category for PP QB's (plus scoring on the PP, especially for d men relies extremely heavily on the forwards... and WSH does have the best PP forward, probably ever)

You used a lot of words to say “ scoring points is really good. Carlson benefits from having ovechkin and playing top pp.” yeah long story short Carlson is the best offensive defenseman bc he puts up amazing numbers. If you want to nitpick how he scores that’s on you but I’m going with the guy who was inpace for 89 points. Teams live or die with a powerplay. I refuse to ignore it’s importance. Now if you value 5v5 points more that’s on you. To me all points matter

It doesn’t go against the supposed narrative lmfao. RAPM adjusted xGF/60 and GF/60 take into account everything I stated here, normal points and goals do not. Advanced stats aren’t just random thing plucked out of nowhere it’s everything that happens on the ice. A goal accrues in 1 second of a 60 minutes game. These stats account for a lot more than just that one second.

All points matter, but all points don't matter equally (and there are far better ways of judging how successful a player is at causing goals to be scored than just points👍)

(And this year wasn't a career year from Carlson...?)

Now show me where I said Carlson is the best...

@hockeyfanatic05 @Capitalfail67 @Bcarlo25

I have come to the conclusion after reading this thread that the user we love nichuskin and jacobtroubruh are under the age of 17, after reading the toaster comment it was a done deal.

It would make sense that they’re young guys that didn’t play. I find the fancy stats are a way for people to try to be able to spot what they can’t because they’re unequipped

Agreed, as someone who’s played 10+ years of competitive hockey it annoys me when people try to only look at fancy stats lol. There’s so much more that goes into the game.

It would make sense that they’re young guys that didn’t play. I find the fancy stats are a way for people to try to be able to spot what they can’t because they’re unequipped