MTL won’t touch that contract honestly

I don’t think it’s too unrealistic for Cirelli to take a 1 year deal around 1.8-2.5.

After seeing how that turned out for Labanc... doubt it

I think it absolutely is

Flyers would likely take the first two deals (if they could find cap room), but not the third.

Flyers aren't trading for Coburn and having him block a younger, cheaper and at this stage probably better player.

This is absolutely the reason why Cirelli won't do it. Labanc bet on himself and lost, quite literally millions of dollars. Cirelli is coming off a great season. The closest you might get to pulling a labanc is taking something like 2x4-4.5.
Similarly Sergachev is over $1m below realistic value on a 2 year bridge.