Hey the comments work

I was just thinking that I wished the comments were working so that I could say how annoyed I am at the MTL trade

Tampa declines. They also won't trade Cirelli if he'd sign that. With a term like that, Cirelli wants at least 2M more, which will make it hard to keep the team together after next year. Cirelli isn't really a need with the current centerdepth and a prospect like Newhook.

If Tampa declines the proposal, then you hit Cirelli with an offer sheet. TB is in a rough spot due to the full NTCs up and down their roster. Offering a trade is diplomatic, but the nuclear option is there. I strongly disagree that a 22 year old perennial Selke candidate is not something the Avs should be going after. That line of him, Jost, and Nichushkin could match up against anyone. Newhook can either be Kadri's replacement or could be eased in on the wing.

In terms of keeping the team together, there are a number of options. Cole , Calvert, and PEB are all off the books in favor of Byram, Newhook, and Kaut, and I'm thinking Compher goes to Seattle. That frees up a fair amount of space. Really the team is still in pretty good shape from a cap perspective (IMO). At worst one of Kadri or Tatar has to go, but like you say there are replacements in the system.

Montreal needs more offense not less.

That's valid, but the Habs probably aren't winning the Cup next year, and this fills a spot long term in exchange for an expiring contract. It was also a rumor in the Colorado media when Bergevin was in town for a week or so.

Neither Montreal or Tampa would accept those offers.

Donskoi's caphit alone means that they probably even wouldn't be able to accept it even if they wanted to.

Bolts will let go Cernak and Sergachev before even listening to offers for Cirelli so it's possible that Sergachev/Cernak are the only potential targets for OS. Then again, that trade isn't even fair. You even gave a higher return for a rental in Tatar than Cirelli, a RFA who is younger than Tatar.

I might agree on who Tampa lets go. I don't on the compensation though. Bowers is a good prospect who is developing nicely, and Donskoi is a good player on a reasonable contract. That's better that a first and third, which is what the offer sheet compensation would be.

I'm not saying this necessarily works. Tampa might not like it. If Cirelli signs an offer though, then they're in a world of hurt. I also think the compensation to Montreal is fair because Tatar is a UFA after the year. Avs fans hate that deal too, which makes me think it's in the neighborhood of fair.

Appreciate your thoughts though.

I agree, Tampa would quickly decline this lowball offer. Tampa will let Cernak go if needed but there won't be a need to lose either Serg or Cirelli. Both should sign their bridges after some negotiations, and the continued process of players going elc-bridge-paid long term will continue. Neither seems interested in signing an OS either, as they both seem quite pleased with their current situation. Tampa will lose around 3 supporting cast guys, which sucks, but the trades for Coleman, Goodrow and the guys ready for a larger role help mitigate this moving forward.

I did some calculations. If Tampa replaces all of Killorn, Paquette, Cernak, Sergachev, and McElhinney with guys making $700k and runs with a 20 man roster, they come out the other end with $7.6M of cap space to sign Cirelli (assuming a flat cap). That would get it done pretty easily, but I can't imagine they are fine losing all of those players and replacing them with minimum salary guys. It may make more sense to just swallow the loss and trade Cirelli, even though they really don't want to.

I think many are underestimating just how dire TB's situation is, and how vulnerable they are to an offer sheet. You may be right that Cirelli wouldn't be interested in signing with another team. I tend to think one from a really good team that is poised to compete and is also likely $2M+ more per year than the Bolts are offering would have some appeal though. And if that's the case, then you don't offer a ton more in a trade than the offer sheet compensation.

That's the reasoning for what you call a lowball offer. It may not be fair market value, but it doesn't have to be if the offer sheet is in the back pocket. There are a lot of ifs, but the proposal is not without logic.

isn't bowers a top prospect

He's definitely a good one but is behind Byram, Newhook, Timmins, and maybe Kaut for the Avs. He is low risk though and should be a good player. I'd be very happy to keep him but also love Cirelli.

Nah, we understand just fine. Many of us in Tampa have done the calculations and a 21 player roster is easily doable trading Cernak, Killorn, Paquette, Coburn and buying out one of Gourde/Johnson. A 22 player roster is easily achieved if one of Gourde/Johnson or, less likely, Palat, waives their ntc(this also basically ensures Cernak staying as well). The cap situation is tight, but it's been tight the past few years and Tampa continues to keep their players, despite the yearly claims from nearly every other fanbase that Tampa's going to lose so and so this year or have to trade so and so for pennies on the dollar. Those other fans continue to be wrong, so most Tampa fans don't really buy this year's sequel of, "the sky is falling in Tampa" either. Tampa has plenty of guys as good or better than Donskoi, and since Cirelli will be bridged for right around what he makes, Tampa has much better use for that money. A 5th round pick is nothing and Bowers, while solid, would be fighting already established players for a bottom 6 role and not this coming year either. Tampa won't be trading their rfa stars outside of possibly Cernak, and even if they considered it, it will certainly be for falr market value, not an offer like this. You can keep believing that these guys are chomping at the bit to sign an OS, I'll take my chances with them following the usual plan in Tampa over the last 6 years vs the 1 offer sheet accepted, and I believe 3 total offered, in the same period.

I don't think the sky is falling. Tampa will be good for a while. I would have even agreed with most of this before revenue losses and flat cap projections. Under the circumstances though, a ballsy gm can put them in a tough spot. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen, but it seems to me an opportunity is there.

Avs are not resigning Zadarov. He has been in the dog house all year long with the coach.. He doesnt fit the system clearly. His rights will be traded at the draft. As for Jost. I see him getting a 1 year deal at most but he has been a failure after being a top 10 pick.> I also see him getting traded to team that thinks he has more potential.

If we were to steal Cirrelli that would be awesome. he would be our 2nd line center not Kadri. Kadri is actually probably a better winger than center. And could see Kaut on the 3rd line with Kadri and Nichushkin. That would be a great defensive 3rd line.

Graves wont be traded as he will be cheap to sign as this was his breakout year. So getthing him to a 3 year 2.2 million AAV would be great. He can play the top line with Makar and when Byram is ready they will literally switch spots. Z is no more than a 3rd line pairing defender. He has size and makes big hits but takes horrendous penalties. And he will be llooking for more than what he is making now like 4 million + we will pass.

I'm sure Colorado would prefer to keep Graves, but Z probably wouldn't bring the same return. With Byram on the way, we're talking about a third pairing role for either him or Graves anyway. So a team might be able to pry Graves away. It's not a terrible thing to have Z around as a change of pace from Makar, Byram, Timmins, and Girard (presumably the top four of the future), assuming he is reasonable with his contract demands.

I disagree on Jost. He did everything but score last (this?) season. And he was starting to show a little offense there at the end too. I fear that trading him would come back to haunt the team. I can see the other side of the argument though too.

Anyway, thanks for looking and opining (goes for everyone).

Now that I think about it, both Coleman and Goodrow trades were bad but getting them were probably the "insurance policy" for losing/trading 1-2 of Killorn/Gourde/Palat/Johnson. If that's the reason of getting ripped off by Devils and Sharks in the most recent TDL (especially if you consider what they gave up to get Vancouver's 1st round pick), I guess the MANA/coaches don't want to put the pressure on 1-2 of Joseph/Boulet/Fortier/Raddysh/Katchouk for potentially replacing the oddmen out next season.

Other than that, there's also a chance that Sergachev AND Cernak both leaves the team IF vets won't waive their NTC/NMC. Then again, Pittsburgh made one of their core-piece in M-A Fleury waive his NMC to get picked up by Vegas, so 1-2 of the odd-men out will most likely waive their NTC/NMC.

Yes, Tampa paid a high price in those trades, but they received players who had the extra year and help replace those who will depart. Brisebois isn’t stupid, he saw what was coming and made moves to prepare for the losses of Killorn, Paquette and others. He was Yzerman’s #2 for several years and worked with him closely on many of the trades, so he and his team have a good idea of how to run things. Tampa was also bidding against at least 3 teams for Coleman and one or two for Goodrow, which drove up their prices. Tampa was going to have to move at least one of Miller or Gourde last year, and the return was better than expected for Miller. I would’ve rather kept him and used him properly while getting a slightly lesser return at the draft for Gourde, but Cooper was never going to utilize Miller correctly here so it worked out for both sides. The mid and late 1sts wouldn’t have helped Tampa for at least 3 years, and for a team in a win now mindset, the trades made sense.

Tampa shouldn’t have too much difficulty signing both Cirelli and Serg to likely 3 year bridges. Serg around 4.5 aav as his closest comparable were in the same range(McAvoy at 4.9, Werenski at 5, both on 3 year bridges). Given that Tampa 95% of the time gets players to take a little less, 4.5x3 would be right in line. For Cirelli, he has great potential and likely a great future; however, he has only had one standout year thus far. If we look at similar Tampa F’s coming off their elc(Palat, Johnson and Killorn), all took bridges slightly less than 5% of the then cap. I can see Cirelli getting, perhaps, a little more but something like 4 or 4.25x3 is definitely in line of what he’ll likely sign for here. If Tampa does get one of Gourde or Johnson to waive, the issues are pretty much solved and Cernak likely stays as well. If one of them will not waive, Brisebois can buy one of TJ or Gourde out and still have enough for a 21 player starting roster to start the year. Cernak may have to be traded in this scenario but even that’s not 100%, depending on what he’s looking for in terms of aav and term.

Tampa will have some roster turnover, but as you mentioned, one or two of Volkov, Barre-Boulez, Raddysh, Joseph etc. will be ready for a bottom 6 role to go along with Coleman and Goodrow in there as well. Tampa will be fine, it’s just the same doom and gloom rhetoric we heard when Killorn and Kuch needed deals at the same time, Stamkos was good as gone in ufa and how Point was getting at least 9 million. Until a Tampa rfa bucks the organizational structure and leavesTampa, it’s just more of the same. The flat cap does throw a slight curveball to the plan, but the difference between a cap of 81.5 and 84 or 84.5 isn’t something JBB and his number guys can’t handle. He has always been a great numbers guy from what I’ve read, so I’m sure they have worked this change into the overall plan.

A buyout seems like such an unattractive option. They would literally be paying Gourde for a decade. Johnson wouldn't be much better. Plus both are good players.

You have clearly put in the work on this stuff, but I do wonder if you're seeing through the fan lens a little bit (something none of us are immune to). At some point, it might just be better to lose even a really good up and coming player like Cirelli in order to keep the rest of the team together. If keeping him means losing all of Sergachev, Cernak, etc. (or paying a guy not to play for you over the next decade and still losing a lot of good players), it's not such an easy decision. One of the legs on the table is going to crack. If another teams GM chooses the one to lean on, it could have an effect on what Tampa ultimately does.

The other thing I'll mention is the potential difficulty in moving players this off season. Obviously Sergachev and Cernak are easy. Killorn shouldn't be too bad, but options are limited since all teams were counting on a cap increase that isn't going to happen. Gourde, Johnson, or Palat might be really difficult with their trade protection. Basically you have to find a team that (1) wants the player, (2) has the cap space, and (3) is an attractive enough destination that they'll waive their NTC. I could be wrong, but I don't see it.

If you really think BriseBois will try and keep Cirelli come hell or high water, then he will. I'm not so sure though. Maybe it takes a better offer than the above (it probably does), but I think the conditions are such that more than one tough decision must be made. I really like Cirelli though, and I would be exploring the options if I'm sitting in Sakic's seat.