This roster is based on Graves being traded for futures. Short-term it isn't ideal as it removes Makar's current D partner, but with Zadorov resigned and Byram gradually easing into the team the loss of Graves will be manageable.
Offseason moves:
- Resign Burakovsky, Jost, Nichuskin, and Zadorov.
- Trade Graves to Montreal for 2 2nds (i.e. 2020 #38 and #39).
----> Montreal gets a young top 4 LHD in exchange for their extra picks.
----> Colorado has a logjam at LHD with Byram arriving, and this move gains them extra picks that can be used to boost the prospect pool. 2020 is a particularly important draft for Colorado given that prospects are usually around 3 years away from being ready, and that would put them in line to make the team on ELC's in 2023 right when Mackinnon's new deal kicks in. As such it makes a lot of sense to stock up on some high picks this year more than most.
- Avs go into the season with $6m in capspace just like this year, allowing them maximum flexibility to take advantage of trade situations that may arise during the season, as well as at the deadline.
********* 2020 DRAFT *********
With the 27th, 38th, and 39th draft picks Colorado selects:
- #27: JJ Peterka, an extremely fast and skilful scoring RW. (Alternatively RW/C Jacob Perrault).
- #38: Justin Barron, a solid all-around RHD who likely falls out of the 1st round due to injuries in his draft year. (Alternatively Topi Niemelä)
- #39: William Wallinder, a big and physical all-round physical LHD (Alternatively LHD Lukas Cormier or LHD Isaak Phillips, though the latter might be a reach due to his rawness and better targeted at #85).
The logic for these selections is two-fold:
1. Draft Value (BPA)
- The value in the late 1st will be in skilful forwards who have fallen in the 1st round, so a forward with a high ceiling makes sense there.
- There aren't a lot of Dmen at the top of the draft, but they will be highly valued early in the 2nd round.
2. Team Needs
Firstly, beyond Newhook and Kaut the prospect pool lacks high-end scoring talent. Ranta, Mutala, and Beaucage have potential, but they are mid-round pick long-shots with weaknesses to work on. It thus makes sense to augment the pool with a scoring winger with top 6 potential. The Avs roster/depth is very deep with young centers (i.e. Newhook, Bowers, Jost, Kamenev), so it makes sense to focus on wing rather than C.
Secondly, defensemen take longer to develop, and with an eye on post-Mackinnon-contract years it makes sense to draft Dmen capable of replacing Johnson and Zadorov. Drafting Dmen also safe-guards against the possibility of Timmins having concussion problems again, as well as the possibility of Helleson and/or Zhuravlyov not making it. By selecting a LHD and RHD Colorado's D would be very deep and completely set for the long-term and they could focus on forwards in subsequent drafts.
MTL isn't giving two 2nd rd for a 24 y/o player that just came of his first nhl season.
If it was his 2nd or 3rd good year, probably they'll consider that trade. But not for now, with Chiarot already on the team, and probably Romanov, Harris, Norlinder are coming in the next 2-3 year. Leskinen can become a good option to.
I think that is fair value for Graves, but I don't think either team would want to make the deal honestly. Like csick said, there is a lot of talent in the 2nd round this year. Also, Graves has shown chemistry with Makar and that cannot be undervalued. Im a jets fan and I would accept this deal to get Graves in the picture.
ALso, everyone needs to calm down about how old Graves is. 24 year old dmen are in their prime and he's playing like it. If the Avs got him locked up for 5 years at a reasonable cap hit they would have him during all his prime years...that's a good thing
I dont think Montreal accepts considering the amount of talent that could be found in the 2nd round this year
Montreal need to start thinking about players who can contribute sooner rather than later, and LHD is a glaring hole for them at the moment. Acquiring a cost-controlled 24 year old top 4 LHD is very difficult to do, and Graves is one of the view such players who will be available.
In terms of value, 2 2nd's seems reasonably fair considering that he has been playing like a Top 4 Dman. For comparison Alec Martinez recently brought in 2 2nd's and is 8 years older. Obviously Martinez is more proven, but Montreal need to build for the future so it's actually a good thing that Graves is still young.
I think that is fair value for Graves, but I don't think either team would want to make the deal honestly. Like csick said, there is a lot of talent in the 2nd round this year. Also, Graves has shown chemistry with Makar and that cannot be undervalued. Im a jets fan and I would accept this deal to get Graves in the picture.
ALso, everyone needs to calm down about how old Graves is. 24 year old dmen are in their prime and he's playing like it. If the Avs got him locked up for 5 years at a reasonable cap hit they would have him during all his prime years...that's a good thing
Thanks for your comment. I agree that Colorado would probably be hesitant to trade Graves at this stage, at least until Byram has been broken in.
It's certainly worth exploring Graves trade alternatives though. Colorado does have control of all their LHD's so they can choose to go in several different directions depending on the return they can get, and what their RFA's ask for.
thats a terrible return for Graves. Picks dont help them
In a vacuum you're probably right. But consider two things:
Firstly, Colorado needs to move one of Zadorov or Graves to make room for Byram, and whichever one stays will likely be permanently on the 3rd pairing beyond next season (or even as soon as December if Byram has a good start). Thus it might make sense to trade Graves while his value is highest - rather than waiting until his ice-time (and trade value) drops.
Secondly, picks don't help them now, but getting 2 high 2nd round picks in a deep draft would help set the Avs prospect pool up for years, which could be critical in keeping the team a contender beyond Mackinnon's new contract in 2023.
In a vacuum you're probably right. But consider two things:
Firstly, Colorado needs to move one of Zadorov or Graves to make room for Byram, and whichever one stays will likely be permanently on the 3rd pairing beyond next season (or even as soon as December if Byram has a good start). Thus it might make sense to trade Graves while his value is highest - rather than waiting until his ice-time (and trade value) drops.
Secondly, picks don't help them now, but getting 2 high 2nd round picks in a deep draft would help set the Avs prospect pool up for years, which could be critical in keeping the team a contender beyond Mackinnon's new contract in 2023.
They don’t have to but they have the luxury to move a. Guy out and have byram slide in
Graves or zads on the team with byram helps the avs. Don’t move one of them for the sake of moving them for draft picks,
Prospects In the ahl that could be called up holds more value than future draft picks.
They don’t have to but they have the luxury to move a. Guy out and have byram slide in
Graves or zads on the team with byram helps the avs. Don’t move one of them for the sake of moving them for draft picks,
Prospects In the ahl that could be called up holds more value than future draft picks.
One of Graves or Zadorov (or Cole) needs to be moved this offseason, whether it is for picks, prospects, or in a hockey trade. We likely aren't going to start the season with the D group below because it makes no sense to have a $4m+ Dman eating nachos.
Graves --- Makar
Girard --- Johnson
Byram --- Zadorov
Cole
As for your last point, if you have a bunch of prospects in the AHL who's ELC's all end at roughly the same time that isn't ideal; it's better to stagger them somewhat so you have a steady supply of ELC's on your roster - and one of the best ways to do that is by acquiring draft picks.
Note that I'm not saying that we should trade players for picks "just for the sake of it". Rather, I'm saying that we should carefully assess the needs of the team, both in the short term AND long term, and if we have players who are expendable (like we have a LHD expendable now) then it makes sense to take the best offer - whether that is picks or prospects or roster players.
One of Graves or Zadorov (or Cole) needs to be moved this offseason, whether it is for picks, prospects, or in a hockey trade. We likely aren't going to start the season with the D group below because it makes no sense to have a $4m+ Dman eating nachos.
Graves --- Makar
Girard --- Johnson
Byram --- Zadorov
Cole
As for your last point, if you have a bunch of prospects in the AHL who's ELC's all end at roughly the same time that isn't ideal; it's better to stagger them somewhat so you have a steady supply of ELC's on your roster - and one of the best ways to do that is by acquiring draft picks.
Note that I'm not saying that we should trade players for picks "just for the sake of it". Rather, I'm saying that we should carefully assess the needs of the team, both in the short term AND long term, and if we have players who are expendable (like we have a LHD expendable now) then it makes sense to take the best offer - whether that is picks or prospects or roster players.
again...they dont NEED to move anyone if they dont want to. Its not a great use of assets but they could have guys healthied like Zads or Cole bc they are promoting Byram, there is nothing wrong with one of them being healthied. Avs have the cap space to handle it for 1 year and that just means you have incredible depth. Its not the end of the world
Plus we really dont know if he is 100% a lock for next season. He should be, but you dont NEED to move anyone bc we dont know if hes going to be a. full time NHLer next season.
Like I said, if the right deal comes along for Graves you take it, if not you keep him. If the right deal comes along for Zads, you move him, if not keep him. Dont dump guys for no reason for Pennys on the dollar.
If you can move them in a deal that helps the Avs win today and be competitive, you do it.
again...they dont NEED to move anyone if they dont want to. Its not a great use of assets but they could have guys healthied like Zads or Cole bc they are promoting Byram, there is nothing wrong with one of them being healthied. Avs have the cap space to handle it for 1 year and that just means you have incredible depth. Its not the end of the world
Plus we really dont know if he is 100% a lock for next season. He should be, but you dont NEED to move anyone bc we dont know if hes going to be a. full time NHLer next season.
Like I said, if the right deal comes along for Graves you take it, if not you keep him. If the right deal comes along for Zads, you move him, if not keep him. Dont dump guys for no reason for Pennys on the dollar.
If you can move them in a deal that helps the Avs win today and be competitive, you do it.
Dont over think this
Sure, we don't NEED to move anyone, really. But Zadorov is 1 year from UFA and needs a new contract. Do you go long term on him with $$$ even if he's only a 3rd pairing Dman on this team?
It's also silly to lose him for nothing in the expansion draft, so how do we protect him?
Planning ahead isn't "over thinking", it's making sure that you maximise your chances of keeping a strong roster in the long-term rather than for just a couple of seasons.
Sure, we don't NEED to move anyone, really. But Zadorov is 1 year from UFA and needs a new contract. Do you go long term on him with $$$ even if he's only a 3rd pairing Dman on this team?
It's also silly to lose him for nothing in the expansion draft, so how do we protect him?
Planning ahead isn't "over thinking", it's making sure that you maximise your chances of keeping a strong roster in the long-term rather than for just a couple of seasons.
I never said you go long term with Zads. He signs his 1 year deal if there isnt a good deal to be had with him.
Hes not used as a 3rd pairing Dman on this team, he was 4th in 5v5 Icetime and 4th in PK. Lets not downplay that he is still has a role on the team and not some "3rd pairing Dman" bc a line up card puts him down there. He has value.
You move Graves or Zadorov in moves that you helping you win now, Not the draft pick kind, thats my whole point. Dont sell off guys who make meaningful contributions to your team for futures. They want to win now too. We are all on the Byram hype train but there is still a scenario that you move a guy for nothing and then Byram is back in Juniors. Now you really hurt your Dcore and have nothing to show for me
I never said you go long term with Zads. He signs his 1 year deal if there isnt a good deal to be had with him.
Hes not used as a 3rd pairing Dman on this team, he was 4th in 5v5 Icetime and 4th in PK. Lets not downplay that he is still has a role on the team and not some "3rd pairing Dman" bc a line up card puts him down there. He has value.
You move Graves or Zadorov in moves that you helping you win now, Not the draft pick kind, thats my whole point. Dont sell off guys who make meaningful contributions to your team for futures. They want to win now too. We are all on the Byram hype train but there is still a scenario that you move a guy for nothing and then Byram is back in Juniors. Now you really hurt your Dcore and have nothing to show for me
Dont be impatient
A 1 year deal takes Zadorov to UFA as he'll already have played 7 seasons by the 2021 offseason. So you lose him for nothing then.
I'm aware that he isn't a traditional "3rd pair" defenseman - that's precisely why I'm arguing that we shouldn't lose him for nothing - because he's more valuable than a 3rd pairing Dman.
You have a good point about not trading Zadorov/Graves until we know more about what we have in Byram at the NHL level.
I dont see any future for Zadorov in Colorado.> He played less and less minutes as the season went on as Byram will take his spot on line 3 to start the year