So your point is, Matthews should have gotten 8 and now because he didn't its screwed the Leafs because he will leave in Free Agency. Its funny that no one is answering any of my hypothetical questions about what the Leafs cap situation would be in 3 years if these guys had all signed bridge deals but instead talk about the "Fact" that Matthews is going to go out and get a max offer as an FA. Did Crosby do that when he could become an FA? Did Brent Burns? Did Kane and Toews? Ovechkin? The only high profile player to become a free agent in the past decade was Tavares. Don't you think its more likely that when Matthews contract comes up, he'll negotiate an extension with his present team? He's openly said he loves TO and wants to win here, but of course he wants to leave, everyone wants to leave to.

What is more likely that Dubas got screwed over and in 5 years, he's going to lose Matthews for nothing, or is he going to be up for a contract and resign in TO for whatever the market price is for his services.

Still though, no one has answered my questions about what the mess would be in 3 seasons had the Leafs given Matthews, Nylander and Marner bridge deals that expire around the same time that both Rielly and Andersen need new deals. In my experience, when people refuse to answer questions, its because they can't or know the answer hurts their position so they just ignore it. I think the people that like to pile on Dubas are either people that don't think beyond the present or are like the Hawks fan on here who is very influenced by what worked there which was so long ago that the entire landscape of the NHL has changed and makes that model not realistic in the current era of the NHL.

@glc_0908 I actually think bridge deals can be a good thing when properly used. I agree with your other comments about AM. Dubas gave AM all the cards, but that's because Dubas caved with Nylander. That's my opinion @LoganOllivier. it's ok to have different opinions.

***EDIT*** @LoganOllivier the answer...to me...as I mentioned earlier, was a bridge deal that RESULTED at the end of the bridge at a $12.5-$13M contract for his next contract. Something that recognized he's not as good as McDavid, but something that will mean he's likely to have the largest contract in the future. Something JUST higher than McDavid, but you can get a Cap hit around $8M. A version of the (3) bridge deals I mentioned earlier.

For the record I would have preferred the bridge as stated above both BOTH Matthews and Marner. This way the Tavares deals and Nylander deals would be much better when those other 2 deals kick in for the real money. AKA contract diversity.

No I explained this in the previous post - I get what you're saying in 3 years you have to pay him. My point is that's peanuts to the big picture. you get him 3 years at 10 now you have 2 million extra now, his qualifying offer is at 11, you sign him 8 @ 13 in 3 years, great. you have him in his prime and the difference is year 4 and 5 at 11.6 are now year 1 and 2 at 13 so 1.4MM higher in year 4 and 5 but you locked him up under the new cap limit for another 8 years for a difference of 3 million.

and thats 3 @10, 3@8 and you can add another 3MM to your already contending roster

yeah brayden point is an example as was kucherov,

edit: the reason i don't like bridge deals is i'd rather take the risk and wind up with a mackinnon contract as opposed to paying someone like marner. If i'm dubas the 8x8 is a justifiable risk for marner. if it doesnt work out theres still value to be had unlike an aging ufa

and to take it a step further - a few scenarios

Best Case
nylander 7x7
marner 8x8
matthews 8 x12

Worst Case
Nylander 7x7
marner 6x10.9
Matthews 5x11.6

Better if dubas had a little more experience imo
Nylander 7x7
Marner 8x8 / 6x10.6
Matthews (if he refused to give term) 3 x 8 - 9.5 with high qo

and here you have the ability to resign matthews again as an rfa and keep his tenure in toronto to 14 years rather than 8 and free agency

I hear ya, but that's if things work out well. What happens if you only give out big deals and just 1 of them dont fully pan out? That's why I think sometimes they can work.

So remember when I said you aren't considering my words, well I am not sure you are even reading them. I said Dubas looks at both now and the future, he hasn't made many moves for the now without making sure it doesn't hurt the future. Trading for Muzzin was a move for the now, and it almost paid off last year. A better head coach and TO could have been in Boston's position, and before you clap back on that one, keep in mind that TO was the better team at 5v5 against Boston but the PK let in 6 or 7 goals in that series, that alone is enough of a difference that even a 25% increase in effectiveness (which would have taken it from 50% to 75% effective) would have meant a TO win in the series.

Dubas wants TO to be good now and in the future, I'd argue that is why he wanted long term deals over the bridge contracts as well. Why? Because as I have mentioned a 3 year bridge would have created more problems than they fixed for the now. TO right now has a pretty sick roster, they have underperformed and have been injured a lot which hasn't helped but seriously they are 2nd in their division and if you take out just the 2nd half of back to back games, they are right up there with anyone. This piling on Dubas, or Nylander, or Marner, or Ceci or whoever is all manic responses to small sample sizes.

Strome and Nylander are not at all comparable though, so I wouldn't talk about them in the same way again. Strome is close to a 1st round bust, he's starting to come a long now but I just don't like his skating. Man was I happy that Arizona picked him ahead of Marner, the whole time I heard people talking about Strome's size and then say "his only flaw is he isn't a strong skater", that is 90% of being a forward in today's game. If you can't keep up, you aren't very effective, all the strome family was the same too, size and pedigree and stuff but none of them can skate well. I'd be playing hardball with him too, he has done nothing to show himself as anything more than a borderline NHLer apart from a terrific run in Chicago last year. He's been okay when he's with Kane but Kane is also a superstar. Give Nylander anyone who can score and he'll get points and create offence. He's also on pace for 30 goals and is nearing the 70 point pace you yourself seem to think he needs to reach to be considered not crap. All of that and now he's going to be on the top PP for once. I think you're going to have to eat your hat on Nylander soon.

@LoganOllivier you said Dubas is looking at both the now and future. I heard ya, read it an re typed it. Nonsense. You don't overpay all your RFAs in 2019 if you're playing for this year. If he trades away another 1st rounder at the TDL...you'll know if hes truly playing to win in 2019/2020. For the record he should trade another 1st rounder IMO.

Yes and that is why I say Dubas is tremendous at navigating this. I agree TO is sick, I agree they can contend, I agree that muzzin was a big pick up. I do not agree that the additional 2 years you paid matthews warranted the full cap hit. If he was as good as mcdavid then yes fine, if AM doesnt want 8 years just pay him whatever and let him walk to free agency.

He's not mcdavid, and as such dubas paid him his full worth with ZERO benefit to the team. It didnt help cap, it didnt help long term security. With that in mind in this scenario a 3 year bridge would be better, and then resigning him at a high qualifying offer would still be better than this 5 year contract because you have lost all leverage. Negotiating is about leverage and right now between matthews and toronto toronto has none and matthews is in the drivers seat because hes a UFA now.

yes, 100%, mirrors my post below

What I think is being lost is that in a sense we are agreeing with him, the only real disagreement is that the AM contract is bad because it was poorly negotiated. We agree they are planning for now and the futre. the issue is his rfa negotations make the future significantly tougher which brings us back to my original point that AM's contract is atrocious for dubas and the team

How easy it is to be some dude on the internet and say, "this is what should have happened". All your numbers are just made up and your whole argument is based on your belief that Matthews is going to leave as a FA.

So to wrap it all up, Dubas isn't a good GM because a better guy like Lou, would have signed him to a bridge deal and that would fix everything. You are going to make this assessment without thinking about stuff like other contracts on the team, looking down the road and the rest. You know what, you win the argument. Dubas isn't good, TO should have signed Matthews to a 3 year deal with a QO less than Timo Mier will have, Nylander should have got 2 years at 3.5 million because dreams do come true and getting Marner at less than 10 for 8 years was a cake walk. Yeah Dubas just waited a long time to make himself look stupid. This is a pointless conversation.

So remember that time I asked what these fictitious bridge deals would look like? And then asked what would these contracts mean when they all needed new ones at the same time as Andersen and Rielly? I am still waiting for an answer to those questions. That is the future I keep talking about and one none of you guys want to consider or comment on. I wonder why that is?

@LoganOllivier @exo2769

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active&signing-status=rfa&contract=standard&display=signing-status,expiry-year,aav,type,signing-age,signing-date,extension&hide=handed,salary,skater-stats,goalie-stats&limits=length-5-5

Check this out and tell me what you notice about these players. With the exception of aho due to offersheet, and larkin due to a horrendous cap situation i dont think holland was able to sign larkin for 8 at the time. These are not AM caliber players because the other gms understand these guys need to be locked up long term, or given a bridge deal until you can pay them what they are worth. these are all the rfa 5 year term guys.

heres 7
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active&signing-status=rfa&contract=standard&display=signing-status,expiry-year,aav,type,signing-age,signing-date,extension&hide=handed,salary,skater-stats,goalie-stats&limits=length-7-7
heres 8
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active&signing-status=rfa&contract=standard&display=signing-status,expiry-year,aav,type,signing-age,signing-date,extension&hide=handed,salary,skater-stats,goalie-stats&limits=length-8-8
and heres 3
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active&signing-status=rfa&contract=standard&display=signing-status,expiry-year,aav,type,signing-age,signing-date,extension&hide=handed,salary,skater-stats,goalie-stats&limits=length-3-3

So basically highend guys are getting bridge or locked up, not paved roads to ufa

does anyone believe that babcock would be successful with the current islanders roster?

listen I'm having a conversation with you im not talking down to you. I literally just typed it out above yet youre telling me Im not reading. with the three year deal at an aav of 8-9 you shave about 2 million off your cap now. BY SIGNING MATTHEWS THE WAY DUBAS DID YOU DIDNT GET ANY CAP SAVINGS. ZERO. NONE. NIENTE.

so by this time, you should have saved 2.6 on marner and roughly 2.5 on matthews that frees up 5.1 for someone. Then you have to trade away someone because you cant have a roster of 7 figure and 8 figure guys all over the lineup. when the cap goes up you can sign your guys and then when they are locked up you can forecast. right now you cant forecast because matthews can walk

I'm not the gm of the leafs and i said dubas is doing great navigating the cap with the pieces he has. Regardless is does not change the fact that the matthews contract was a lost negotiation. I didnt say hes not worth it and i didnt say hes a bad player i said dubas lost the negotiation.

you have a 93 MM cap hit with a 21 man roster and 5 unrestricted d men. Good luck dude, dubas is gonna need it.

and yes if he signed a 3 year deal then he give reilly a contract at the same time. andersen the year before. doesnt change the fact the cap is going up and by then youll have some certainty over the lineup

no sir

dude are you fishing for compliments? I literally have done nothing but compliment dubas except the negotiation for matthews. you know dubas turned down 8x8 for marner right? or do you not know that? like youre getting pissed off that I'm trying to explain that matthews contract good for him and only him not the team, idk how youre not seeing that im not attacking you right now

yeah im not considering the other contracts. all 93MM worth. when youre that far over the cap i wonder if at any point you wonder, hmmmm how could we have handled this a little better?

They aren't over the cap, they used all the loop holes to make it fit. I don't think anyone else would have been able to do that. Which is why everyone couldn't understand why they traded for Clarkson. They could have not signed Tavares or better yet the previous gm could have made smarter choices like not signing Marleau or not having tied up long term money in Zaitsev. That would have made things a lot easier. But hey let's blame the new guy because he cleaned up the mess and is forging a smarter long term path.

Not every team needs toughness. The back to back Penguins didn’t have much toughness but they skated through every team. The Blackhawks’ dynasty won with speed, skill and puck possession. On those teams there were not any guys who stood out tremendously for their size and grit. What the Leafs are not playing with right now are speed, forecheck and intensity.

The Islanders play a much more structured and disciplined game than the Leafs, so it’s a no brainer for me.

Hornqvist, Malkin, and Cullen are all tough players who play/played physical.
Blackhawks played very physical and hard and had those kinds of players. They were also coach by Quennville. Horrible examples.

They both were more defensively sound than offensive powerhouses. Defensively sound teams win cups not offensive powerhouse teams.

the irony in you telling us we arent reading your posts when I have not one time singled dubas out for anything other than matthews getting a 5 year term at and 8 year aav.

In your opinion. All the reports at the time and literally every non Leaf fan on this site said Matthews was going to get 13.5 for 8 years cause he signed 2 years after McDavid did and that was the comparable cap percentage. So you saying Dubas failed because its 5 year term with a 8 year cap hit is just made up opinion based on nothing but conjecture and the personal opinion of a fan. This is why I am saying this conversation is a waste of time. Matthews was open to signing long term but the cap hit would have been more. And before anyone says Matthews couldn't make more than McDavid, no one said that stuff when Crosby was making 8.87 million and then other guys after took more. The market changes and TO did what they needed to to get their core signed. Just go back through this site as far back as the summer Tavares signed. Every non Leaf fan and many leaf fans said when Tavares signed that one of the young big 3 would have to be moved. Then Nylander signed and everyone said they won't have room to sign Matthews and Marner and now what? All are signed for the next 5 seasons. Every single non Leaf fan said it can't be done. Many said Zaitsev couldn't be traded and he was, same with Marleau, Dubas again pulled off the impossible. What's it going to take for this guy to get respect? I bet if they win the cup this year still people will be saying, he got lucky because he inherited such a good squad from Lou. It just blows my mind how so many people are only looking for faults and ignore everything else just so they can take the Leafs down a notch.

jesus christ man. youre a lost cause. youre a social justice warrior for dubas gaining respect. HE HAS IT. He's done an unbelievable job managing that team. Everyone should see that and if they don't they're dumb. No one is arguing or discrediting him as a gm, I think hes a great gm and will be for a long time. Yes, I am of the opinion that dubas lost the negotiation with matthews. Yes i am of the opinion that he in now way shouldve received 8 for 13.5 at the time of signing and yes I believe if lou or for that matter any more experienced gm would not have signed 5 years at his current number. these are my opinions. to sit here and say 5 years at 11.6 is an incredible contract but 8 at 12 or even 12.5 isnt is asinine. to say 5 at 11.6 is sooo sooo much better than a 3 year bridge at 8-9 is also asinine. the cap is going up in between now and every of those future signing dates. he's a competent enough gm to understand how to sign the guys he needs going forward. If you can't see that all great gms have negotiations they won and lost idk what to tell you dubas isnt perfect, lou isnt perfect, no gm is perfect. Matthews was not a perfect negotiation. if it was, he would still be an rfa for his second deal. The agent won end of story.

And since im sure you will again bring up a moot point that i think hes gonna walk cause hes a ufa. no i didnt say that, but you better believe he's pricier now.

edit: we can agree to disagree. as long as you understand i'm not and have not once criticized dubas and said the leafs suck or its his fault. I like dubas, i like the team, i don't like the contract. my opinion for all of the reasons ive explained

I don't think being an FA or a RFA makes as much a difference as people think. Matthews in his next contract will get a raise but I am not sure he'll even get an 8 year deal. I think shorter term is the future for star players. It's a safe bet for both sides there is minimal risk for decline and players can maximize their earnings. Of course that is only with star players, if you can get a guy like Kapanen for example to go long term at a young age with a decent cap hit it could be a fantastic move but it can also blow up, what if he doesn't get better sort of thing. With guys like Matthews though, he's going to be worth his contract stars usually always are. It's the depth contracts that get you in trouble which Dubas has been amazing at finding depth for cheap.