Marner is a Toronto boy he’s not going anywhere but Toronto

I think they would match this offer. The only reason he has been using the treat of an offer sheet is to get the 5 year deal similar to what Matthews got and no team is willing to give up 4 years of 1st round picks for 5 years of mitchy, sorry to let you know that Mr. Ferris and PAULLL

There's some rumors about this crazy 7-year offer sheet from NYI though.

I think something is about to happen, sooner or later.

I think it all depends on his base salary in year three. A team looking to mess with Toronto (which doesn’t happen) could give him a base salary of 13 or even 14m which would then be his QO to bring him straight to ufa.

I don’t see a gm making this kind of offer @BurgerBoss sets up a really bad comparable for future rfa bridge deals.

I think the factors that would effect whether or not leafs match are in the salary structure like I mentioned. The other issue is whether or not marner signs it.

For the purposes of your hypothetical with the information we have I think the leafs match. But it certainly puts us in a bind.

Most likely yes.

However agreeing to an offer sheet is a good way to force TOR into action.

I don’t think so, I think two factors are at play. Mitch will only sign a sheet that leafs will match and compensation both for the sheet and salary are too high.

Ya true, Toronto would probably make a trade to dump cap(CECI) then match offer sheet, if there was one

It's pretty rare to have players of this level after their ELCs are expiring. I can't think of any year when there's been so many elite players with their ELC expiring at the same time. I think it's an unique situation, and I kind of believe the solution to this is going to be unique as well.

It’s because of that wicked 2015 draft

I strongly agree with this.

Also I'd believe an offer sheet like this is one that would be most profitable for him as well, as I don't see Dubas letting him go without 4 firsts compensation.

Ofc that puts the offer sheeting team in a bind - it's kind of foolish make a contract offer that is doomed to be matched.

Bergevin knows what I'm talking about with that Aho offer sheet joke lol.

And 2016. Matthews would also be in these talks if TOR hadn't signed him early.

Something is definitely about to happen, at some point, right away, in the future sometime, could happen any minute, between now and whenever it happens.

Sorry I couldn't help myself.

My thoughts are that Ferris is a really bad agent that is going to sink himself once again. He did these same stunts with Josh Anderson and with AA in Detroit and lost miserably. There are zero teams interested in giving Marner a 5 year deal at near the money he's wanting. If I were Marner, I'd have already fired him. Ferris talked up the offer sheet and about comparables and the rest and was met with nothing. Marner will have to take a fair deal compared with the correct players (Rantanen, Point, Aho etc) or he won't play next season. Ferris lost, Point or Rantanen will sign sooner rather than later and then the market is set.

IMO Marner signs. So he gets overpaid for three years. (opinion) Is guaranteed the same amount money for one more year as RFA if that team would retain his rights, and be a UFA in four years total.
But really the only teams that afford him right now are iffy playoff teams, or bottom feeders. Do they want to risk those picks for just four years of Marner? Marner might only sign because he gets UFA in four years.
IMO Leafs don't match....take the picks and the cap space.
Depending on the team what makes the offer, maybe the Marner doesn't sign it, and tries to work out a deal with the Leafs, let's say 10.6 X 5

I was under the impression that Leafs don't want to have a 5-year deal with Marner, because they'd be in a position where Marner, Matthews and Nylander gets expired at the same time. And this sh*t-show would just repeat...

I'm curious, if COL for example decides to give Rantanen an absolute mega deal, let's say 8 x 11 (I think they could afford to do it actually), wouldn't it be the absolute worst case scenario for the Leafs.
Then Marner would have two $11M+ RFA comparables to take for the next contract...

Actually I'm one that doesn't thin "the show" would happen. So what if they all leave at once.? It's trying to be a good team for those five years. And the end of the five years, the players are UFAs, your changes of signing team are minimal...even just one. So July first 2024, Leafs are without three stars from their Cup winning teams and then Leafs have 29m in cap money. Marner might be the only one to stay a Leaf, but it don't really matter.

Not a worst case scenario at all, it would effectively end the Ferris stupid show. Rantanen, has outscored Marner over the past two seasons. If he takes 11 million for 8 years, Marner can't for any reasonable and rational reason expect to get over 10 on a deal, unless he goes to 6-8 terms himself. The whole 5 year 11+ million deal is ridiculous for a winger and isn't going to happen. Rantanen apparently wants to go long term, so I am expected 6+ years of term and whatever his cap will be will set the bar.

Everyone is apparently waiting for Marner, and TO is positioned to let him sit until the season starts. Does anyone actually think that all the other RFA's are going to just wait for Marner regardless? I don't, eventually someone is going to blink and it doesn't look like its going to be Dubas.

I think your spot on with this, BB. The game has changed ever since the Clarkson trade with the leafs acquiring enough LTIR space to ensure that they can match anything up to the 4 firsts threshold. Anything over that and they let him walk. I mean, that trade kinda broadcasted to the whole league what the leafs strategy is and how they will respond to an OS.

So, I think you're right, I can't see a team throwing out an OS that is doomed to fail. If there is an OS coming it needs to be over the 4 firsts. And, despite the rumours, I can't see any team giving up 4 firsts for the privilege of overpaying Marner, and especially if he wants a 5 yr deal. That's a fireable offense for a GM.

At this point, the leafs have covered themselves well and can call out the marner OS bluff. And I think it's always been just that, a bluff. The kid has been on the record numerous times saying he wants to be a leaf. All the leafs have to do is wait Mitch out. The ball is in his court, and it seems like whatever decision he makes the leafs are prepared to deal with it.

I think COL will be the first one, as they're in the easiest position cap-wise. I believe Rantanen goes for a $9,6M x 7y deal.

But just like in the case for Aho, and maybe Rantanen as well, Ferris/Marner is not going to consider them as a comparable. Their comparable has been and still is Matthews, as he's on the same team and he got outscored. Advanced statistics might say otherwise, but that one argument of him being the point leader of this team is going to be looming over the negotiations all over the end until they reach a contract...

Offer sheet is the quickest way to force TOR into action, which was the whole point of this post.

Its going to be a big let down for so many people when literally nothing comes from this. Ferris can say whatever he wants but reality is a different story. Why would any GM give a guy asking for too much money, too much money.

If I was Dubas, I'd be thinking the following way.

Someone is going to blink, whether its one of the other RFA's or one of the GM's negotiating with those RFA's. When that happens, that will reinforce the market for these players. Marner and Ferris can use anyone they want as their comparable but everyone is going to compare Marner to other top wingers, not centres. So only a desperate GM could possibly think the OS is a good move and there are not that many teams that can even afford to do that. So is OS a viable threat? It would have happened by now if it was. Montreal had all space in the world but they didn't go out and offer a crazy deal and on top of that, Marner apparently has turned down deals from Columbus and the Islanders so is he even open to signing one? With all those thoughts in mind, what I think Dubas is doing is just waiting. He's put offers on the table including one that is over 10 million for 7 or 8 years. Let's say Rantanen comes in at less than 10 on a 7 year deal. If I'm Dubas, I really hope that a rumour like that starts circulating, because I'd send it to Marner and say, I am keeping the deals I offered on the table until Rantanen signs, if he gets less than 10, we will re-evaluate our offers.

Really if those offers are correct, then it may be entirely in Marner's best interest to be the first one to blink. His offers may only get worse from here on out.

This is why I say Ferris has completely screwed this negotiation up.

For the "why should a player who wants too much be paid too much" question, TOR has a privilege of having Marner's signing rights. Otherwise this situation would be much different.
For example BUF had to pay way too much for Skinner, because they couldn't afford to lose him.

Obviously if TOR wants to succeed this season, they ultimately need Marner for that, so eventually they would take a not so team friendly deal with him, should the situation go to that far.

What would Marner blinking exactly mean to you? Signing a cheaper, more team-friendly contract?

You have a point about another comparable. So is Point now 12.5m, Tzahcuk moves up to 9.5, Laine and Connor. When does the madness end? But comparables don't mean that much until a player goes too arbitration. Maybe the other teams say we can't afford these new prices....and no team in NHL can. So players start getting 4m on 1 year deals. And are UFAs in four years.

Lockout-train coming, all aboard! choo choo

I kinda see it as the pendulum is starting too swing to far on these rfa guys and it will eventually swing back to center. That you're right Pal, eventually teams are going to start saying we can't afford to pay these guys these amounts.

There seems to be this prevailing assumption that there is only one way to build a team for success, which is the Pits/Chicago model where you pay a core of stars bug bucks, fill the rest of the team out with elcs and league mins and then just wait for the cups to roll in. But that seems kinda silly to me, there's too many variables in hockey to have a standard recipe for success.

Toronto is definitely following the Pits/Chicago model, and it'll be interesting to see where this all lines up. But there are other teams that are approaching things differently. Carolina's cap structure and roster interests me. I'll be neat to see where they;re at in a few years time.

If there are multiple rfa holdouts this year then I could see you being right about the train you see coming