Quoting: BurgerBoss
I think COL will be the first one, as they're in the easiest position cap-wise. I believe Rantanen goes for a $9,6M x 7y deal.
But just like in the case for Aho, and maybe Rantanen as well, Ferris/Marner is not going to consider them as a comparable. Their comparable has been and still is Matthews, as he's on the same team and he got outscored. Advanced statistics might say otherwise, but that one argument of him being the point leader of this team is going to be looming over the negotiations all over the end until they reach a contract...
Offer sheet is the quickest way to force TOR into action, which was the whole point of this post.
Its going to be a big let down for so many people when literally nothing comes from this. Ferris can say whatever he wants but reality is a different story. Why would any GM give a guy asking for too much money, too much money.
If I was Dubas, I'd be thinking the following way.
Someone is going to blink, whether its one of the other RFA's or one of the GM's negotiating with those RFA's. When that happens, that will reinforce the market for these players. Marner and Ferris can use anyone they want as their comparable but everyone is going to compare Marner to other top wingers, not centres. So only a desperate GM could possibly think the OS is a good move and there are not that many teams that can even afford to do that. So is OS a viable threat? It would have happened by now if it was. Montreal had all space in the world but they didn't go out and offer a crazy deal and on top of that, Marner apparently has turned down deals from Columbus and the Islanders so is he even open to signing one? With all those thoughts in mind, what I think Dubas is doing is just waiting. He's put offers on the table including one that is over 10 million for 7 or 8 years. Let's say Rantanen comes in at less than 10 on a 7 year deal. If I'm Dubas, I really hope that a rumour like that starts circulating, because I'd send it to Marner and say, I am keeping the deals I offered on the table until Rantanen signs, if he gets less than 10, we will re-evaluate our offers.
Really if those offers are correct, then it may be entirely in Marner's best interest to be the first one to blink. His offers may only get worse from here on out.
This is why I say Ferris has completely screwed this negotiation up.