My best guess is 3yrs at a shade over $10m. Something silly with his number in it like $10,160,000.

I don't understand the Aho thing and don't think it set the market. More surprising that Carolina's offers to him were so bad that the Habs offer sheet was attractive enough for him to sign it.

Really just my opinion on what I've heard out of the Marner camp for the last year. They were always looking to piggy back off of Matthews' #. Fair/market value/etc. don't matter much to the Marner camp. That doesn't mean Dubas cracks and gives him what he wants...but the starting point in negotiations for them is almost certainly Auston's number. I could see $11.5m on a 7-8yr term if the leafs free up the space to do it...a bit over $10m on 3yrs...or mid $9's on a yr or 2.

Just a hunch and my opinion...not dragging advanced stats or even trying to suggest I think he's worth that...just where I think it ends up.

if you look at how his agent Darren Ferris has handled things, Sam Bennett, Athanasiou, Josh Anderson, etc.. all leaving their ELCs hold out all summer until Sept/Oct, then cave to very close to what to team wants. I do see the cap concerns, but although many people don't see this, I think Dubas showed that he's not going to get bullied with the Nylander deal. Willy got over a mil less than he wanted, and longer term. I think there comes a point in Sept when dubas makes it clear that this is the maximum offer and that they can't afford more, and they can't afford to have Mitch miss games. make it clear he needs to drop his ask significantly or sit out the season.

Realistically Marner is worth around 7.5/8M for 8 Years, but getting Mitch Marner Camp to think about this rationally is out of the question. We all know Marner has terrible defense, and if it wasn't for Tavares he wouldn't have the offensive stats he does which is why it makes him such an attractive player. Marner trying to base his deal off of Matthews is completely ridiculous to me, as he is not as good nor will ever be as good as Auston Matthews. The big thing is that Dubas needs to figure what is capfriendly to the team, and signing him a 10.5/11M deal for 8 Years does not seem like something Toronto can afford with guys like Liljegren, and Sandin coming around, and when you add in other contracts that are ELC right now, that will need to up the money in upcoming years.

It seems natural for Mitch Marner, and Camp try to make as much money as possible, but he isn't worth Matthews money, and he wouldn't be worth Stamkos money in my mind. The idea he should be making more than Evgeni Malkin to me is widely insane. Simple fact that he is carried by JT, and not the greatest on defense. I'd say 7.5-8M is about worth it.

Not saying it's ideal but i think he gets somewhere between Aho and Panarin, my guess is 6 years 10.5 yes its an overpayment and i wouldn't go that high personally just my guess hopefully its less though

That's 500k-1m too much.

That's 500k-1m too much.

The offer sheet max is 10.6 million to receive the 4 1st Rounders, so I believe the Marner/Leafs use that number as a minimum for a long term contract.

Just to play devil's advocate and to see responses, if a team were to offer sheet him at 10.5 x 5yrs for 2 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd, are the Leafs matching, and do you want them to match at that compensation?

Leafs match that imo. That is the only logical offer sheet move, but it would likely just incite retaliation. The team has no chance of the leafs not matching for that package imo. Just offering to drive up value.

Now with Ceci, and Kerfoot needing to be signed, if the offer comes in at 10.5, who gets moved to free up space to sign all three?

Just to play devil's advocate and to see responses, if a team were to offer sheet him at 10.5 x 5yrs for 2 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd, are the Leafs matching, and do you want them to match at that compensation?

I would think 100%. What I heard was that a team would maybe offer a 4yr contract at a number the leafs would match so that he walks to free agency

doing stuff like this sets a dangerous precedent though. I'm sure every GM is hoping it would happen but none would actually do it. If a team pulls the trigger on that, you can bet on the leafs retaliating at the earliest opportunity.

I think the new-age of GM doesn't take personal offense to an in-coming offer sheet. In some cases, the offering team is doing the current GM a favour by getting the player to agree to terms. To me, Aho is a slam dunk at that # and Bergevin did the Canes a favour.

You obviously want to negotiate on your own terms...but if you're at a stalemate, it's not the worst thing in the world to have a player vs. picks option to choose from.

When Burke flew off the handle at the Dustin Penner offer sheet, he wasn't so much pissed at the offer sheet so much as he was pissed off that Edmonton was eliminating the "2nd contract"...something that appears to have come true.

while I don't think they take is as personally, something like just submitting an offer sheet to drive the price of a player up and lose a player to UFA sooner is unprecedented. you can bet that those 4 year offer sheets at a reasonable amount would be going out to every single RFA not signed by July 1st if GMs were comfortable with it. Players would love to hit UFA sooner, opposing GMs would too. so there has to be something stopping them, which is likely just fear of retaliation.