Marner is gonna cost $10.5m at the minimum

Kapanen closer to the $3.5m mark

If Kappy wants Sam Reinhart bridge money, where are his stats to prove it? I know Nylander wanted Draisaitl money despite his lower output too. This is where Dubas can't become Dumbass.

The only way Marner receives over 10 million is if he signs a long term deal, on a bridge deal (like I original posted), 8-9 million range for the 2-3 year deal.

Easy math for losing 12 million is not to resign their UFA Dmen (8 million) and 4 million from a Marleau trade (the Leafs will be bound to retain 2 million most likely) and 4 million from trading Zaitsev and trade Brown is another 2 million saved. That's 18 million saved to cover the 12 million over the cap, leaving the Leafs about 5 million for replacement players for those 3 spots.

Leafs have roughly 4-6m to shed. Remove the ufa’s from here and you get a clearer picture.

Teams would likely offer sheet him for more than that. They can give him up to $4.2 AAV and only have to give up a second.

Dumbass has a boy crush on Gardiner, he wants him back. So what's your Plan B.

5 year contract or under. Adding 6th year becomes a 1st and 2nd for that same amount. Personally I think the OS compensation is too low,

He will be traded by then

Kapanen had a breakout year at the worst possible time for the Leafs.
Scoring wingers Skinner and Eberle just got signed for more than they're worth: Skinner should've been no more than $7.5m; Eberle @ $4m.
The current market dictates what he's worth, not his stats.

You gotta look at it from the player and his agent's perspective.
"So-and-so had 'x' points and got signed for this much"

He'll be signed to a bridger with the leafs at around $3.5, or even a offer sheet at around $4m.
As someone said, if the cost for a 20G 44PT RW is a 2nd rounder and some shame (lol), he'll get signed in a hurry esp when the leafs are hard pressed to match.

Same for Marner. Imagine convincing his agent to take a haircut even though he's clear and away their best player for the past 2 seasons.
If he does, good for the Leafs, but that agent should be fired lmao.