I think Brown, Johnsson and Kapanen are likely to be moved either in the off season or at the start of the season prior to Hyman and Dermott coming back.

Marleau won't be moved. He has a MTC and doesn't want to uproot his family. End of story there.

Moving Nylander is a bad idea, from what I can gather, the best possible move is going to be for a RHD that is between the ages of 27-29 and less valuable than Nylander. So we will be moving a player who has yet to reach his prime for a player who is leaving his prime and in most scenarios is going to need a new big contract.

I think the Leafs may roll the dice on Liljegren, Rosen and Borgman and then re-evaluate closer to the deadline. Even with a weak defence, TO is going to be a playoff team so perhaps there is a deadline move to shore it up without sacrificing major pieces. Next year makes more sense to make a bolder move since Marleau will be off the books.

Brown is worth a 3rd or a 4th, I personally think a 3rd. In no way shape or form is a 2nd involved UNLESS Toronto returns a 3rd back.

Marleau isn't going anywhere....Leaf fans need to stop with that madness it's just not happening as of now.

Marner is not signing a 7 year deal for a penny less then $10M and likely $10.5M is the number.

You are right; Toronto is going to have to move Brown, Kap/Johnsson and Kadri/Zaits. The other alternative is Nylander and one other piece. This really isn't rocket science on how much has to be moved, the question is of those combinations i just mentioned, which pieces are gone and how does Toronto get the best RHD back for a combination of those pieces.

Pulock isn't worth THAT much.. straight up for Kapanen is pretty fair. Maybe Toronto adds a mid round pick like a 4th or 5th but the rest of that is completely unnecessary.

This is the mentality many have on here, and I say its just too much. Its just the common sentiment of people these days. Everyone wants everything right now and they'll do whatever they feel is needed to get that instant gratification.

Here are the realities of the situation with TO.

1) They will be right up against the cap
2) They are not in cap hell because they can manage their situation
3) There defense is extremely thin
4) They have some very good pieces working in the minors that look like they will be solutions to the issues they have in the near future.
5) The worst contract on the team is Marleau and he's off the books next season

So with all that in mind, how to we get through this year and what are some things we can expect.

Well we can expect with a very strong degree for certainty that our young players will continue to progress, so Matthews, Marner, Nylander et al should have better years than last year. So our offense is likely going to be better than last season and our team defence should improve as well as these players learn that aspect of the game better as many do in their early years in the NHL. Moves are going to be made, Brown is definitely going to be moved. As well as other depth options. My guess, Kapanen gets traded as well for either a young defenceman or an ELC that has speed and size and looks like they can develop into a power forward. At that time, they should be operating under the cap but with 3 of Holl, Borgman, Liljegren and Rosen on the blueline, its worrisome but I think two of them will be better than anyone expects. Sometimes rookie defenceman make teams and then play well.

So now with all that going, the team can ride it out until the deadline, (unless things go really bad, at which time you re-evaluate and maybe adjust the game plan) and then see what can be done to shore up issues.

To just give away a high value guy or make huge trades like people like you suggest all the time, you are over reacting to a problem you don't completely understand yet. Patience is the key, because whether anyone wants to admit it, TO is still a young team on the rise.

Good points, the only thing I would argue is how much needs to be moved. If marner can be signed at 10m or less, the term is flexible, Leafs can move kapanen and brown to become compliant.

The only snag is we have to add an rhd for 1m or less.
With kapanen and brown as trade pieces I think we could fetch an Rhd on elc who is ready for bottom pair minutes.

I tend to agree with you here. Whether or not they want to move polluck is another issue. I think the overpay is a place marker for the type of offer getting the islanders to bite.

According to advance metrics Pulock was tied for 6th int the league in Defensive Point Share. Tied with Ellis and Giordano. Would your package get either of those players?

He is severely under rated by people everywhere. He is was a legit 1RHD last year and it didn't look like a fluke year. Like it or not a Pulock deal probably starts around Nylander if the Islanders are dealing.

I agree Toronto shouldn't move Matthews, Marner or Nylander...in that order of most to least important to hang onto. That said, how would Toronto be cap compliant without moving Brown, Kap/Johnsson and Kadri/Zaits or alternatively Nylander and one of those pieces I mentioned?

Brown is $2M, Kap/Johnsson is $3M and Kardri or Zaits is $4.5M equaling $9.5M minus $3M to back fill them (assuming ELC's or close to) so that frees up $6.5M. The other alternative is Nylander $7M plus Brown $2M equals $9m minus $2M for ELCs or the like equals $7M freed up. That's the kind of money that needs to be freed up assuming the cap is $82.5M to $83M, plus knowing Kap/Johnsson need a $3M deal and Marner a deal anywhere from $8M to $11M depending on term, plus knowing Toronto SHOULD get a proven upgrade as a RHD. (Obviously i'm rounding to the nearest $500K in all the numbers here).

I agree with what you're saying based on Pulock's contract versus Nylanders. If they both had the same contract, that's a different story entirely.

The getting the defenceman is the problem for me. It doesn't make any sense to sacrifice a great long term piece like Nylander just to make this year work when next year isn't at all hard due to Marleau being off the books. It makes way more sense to wait and see what we have internally. Really the team is a playoff team as long as Andersen and most of the forwards are healthy and by the time the deadline is near, there is a lot more flexibility depending on how much cap was saved earlier in the year. So the NEED to get a defenseman sentiment is very much a desperation short term fan appeasing move. It makes almost zero sense from a business stand point or asset management. So if you take that chip off the table to start with, then you can get buy with moving only Brown and one of Kapanen or Johnsson. And really with the power down the middle, wingers are not that hard to find.

Throw up a armchair with just moving Brown and Kap plus signing Marner (reasonable contract) and Kap/Johnsson. I don't think it plays out unless Marner takes a 3 year $8M deal...maybe i'm wrong.

This is a recent one.

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1159642

With the cap not being $83.5M...think it's $82.5M to $83M, and Hyman and Dermott on LITR, the question is how long. Unless they miss 50+ games, you're not cap compliant in that scenario.

Once Hyman comes back, another move would likely have to be made but it all depends on how many games they miss. Its entirely possible that one of the other forwards impresses enough with our stars that Johnsson could be made expendable and then be moved for something else. Plus at times the team could run with only 1 spare. Like when both the Marlies and Leafs are at home for an extended period of time. Then you save a little more. Then come the deadline a move could be made if necessary.

If you are creative there are always interesting solutions.

With Pulock's skating issues though, tough to have to overpay for him

It's not that clear cut per LITR rules, especially when a player is gone a partial season and comes back, the cap hit relief calculation and the amount a team can be over is a complex calculation.

It essentially breaks down to games missed and calculates the player salary based on a per game rate. So Hyman makes 2.25 mill, you calculate that over 82 games and then subtract the number of games he misses. Let's say he misses 15 games that would be almost half a million in savings.

As I said another move may have to be made but this is the most conservative and in my opinion best long term approach. If things really don't go well, you can change direction later in the season and if things go great you know your answers were always supposed to come from within.

I get the proration bit of it, but the problem is, how does anyone know if he misses, 20 games or 50 games? It's not the team that decides that either, it's the NHL. What if they say he'll miss 30 games and he ends up missing 50...or alternatively if he only misses 15? The issue is, it's virtually impossibly to predict and the only way to plan is to bring someone up or down from the AHL which I'm pretty sure that's what the Leafs do.

Again though, other moves will likely have to happen but the room for flexibility is there. Too many people on here are looking for why it can't work, I prefer looking for ways to make it work. I'm a firm believer that creativity will always lead to a better path.

The cap space that would be available because of a short term LITR is an intangible and complicated. In these scenarios, typically AHL players are moved up and moved back down when the player returns unless it's a season ending injury then moves can be made. The Leafs have the AHL players to backfill so that's the solution.

I know, and those salaries are accounted for. It's going to be tight but if they can manage to save a little early in the season that gives them more cap at the deadline. If you are 2 million under the cap on day 1 and stay that way to the deadline you then have more ability to add since contracts you acquire are prorated based on remaining games but you still have the 2 mill in space

No it is fairly simple, the cap relief, provided that the leafs are at the ceiling (shouldn’t be any issues there), will cover the daily cap hit for both players and Horton for that matter.

When Hyman and Dermott are back we will have 88.3m ceiling which is calculated daily multiplied by days left in the season. The leafs will be so tight to the cap that it will be very important to send players up and down to the ahl between games and directly after the last game before anyone from ltir returns. By doing this the leafs can save nearly 1/3 of a players salary. At an average of 800k that is nearly 270k in cap space. Would imagine this may be done with 1 or 2 healthy scratches.

That's my point though; it's prorated but space must be determined first before a subsequent move be made as such it limits the team to their AHL crop of players not acquiring from other teams. Additionally, if injuries happen during the season (non LITR one's) which are for certain as they always do, it makes it much more complicated. Also the NHL determines the LITR on a player not the team.

It's not like saying, oh well Hyman won't be back for a estimated 30 games so let's use that money and grab a free agent and just trade him when he comes back. That's why the calculation is almost impossible to figure out in the context of trying to trade or grab free agents which is why teams stick to their farm system.

Back to the original point, the defensive problems here remain and can't get solved in light of Hyman and Dermot going on LITR which is why I say the Leafs need to move Brown, Kap/Johnsson and a Zaits or Kadri to really improve this team.

Yup I agree, temp ltir is no where close to free cap space. No upgrading the defence with that relief.

The cap relief is not determined by the league. It is a calculation Written by Pridam.... who works for the leafs lol. Hyman and Dermott provided they are out for 24 days (including ltir conditioning) will receive full relief from their daily cap hit. If Toronto chooses to sign another player or trade for another player they can do so and then trade them away afterwards. But they need to make sure that they do not go over the calvculated relief.

That is assuming that no young players earn playing time on the back end. That could make a huge difference for TO. While I agree it's risky, it's also very prudent why spend assets if you don't need too. And until guys like Rosen and Liljegren and Holl get a chance to succeed know will no for sure if they will fail.