I made a ton of depth signings, people like Carcone and and Mueller. Not gonna bother discussing them here
Marner gets 9.5 x 6. No team will offer sheet him and surrender their 4 1sts. I think this is a fair offer. Is he worth more? Maybe. But his RFA status drops his value because teams won't pay the 4 1sts to sign him. In a theoretical scenario where he gets offer sheeted, Toronto matches if its not enough to get the 4 1sts, and matches if its under that threshold.
Connor Brown gets dealt because he's anemic at 5v5. We can find a PK replacement. Edmonton wanted him at the deadline, but they'll get him now.
Babs goes to Buffalo, they are the only team with a HC vacancy and also were the other team in the running when the Leafs got Babs in the first place. Lou cost us a 3rd a few years back, so that'll be the cost for the Sabres. The leafs hire Sheldon Keefe to be their new head coach
Zaitsev goes back to the Island. Lou loved him and signed him initially. He fits their style of play. His contract is the reason we have to attach a pick to him to get him outta here.
Marleau does not choose to retire, but rather is forced to retire. Dubas says "you can stay, but you will be scratched." Marleau gets dealt to Ottawa because after July 1 Marleau only has 1.5 mil left in real money on his deal. Ottawa saves cash, Toronto saves cap hit. Kind of similar to the David Clarkson trade from a few years back.
Now HERE is the big. Subban to the leafs. Chris Johnston says the leafs were looking at big name right shot DMen. I chose Subban because Nashville has a plethora of D, and not a lot of scoring. Makes sense on their end. So what is fair return? I saved with Liljegren. If I picture Liljegren panning out perfectly, I imagine him as Subban, so I don't feel bad giving him up. Plus we keep Sandin. Nashville will ask for Willie, but I'd say no. Idk if this trade would require Kappy AND Johnsson, but if that's what it took, I'd do it. Subban is a #1 D. Kappy and Johnsson are middle to top 6 wingers. I'll take the #1 D. Ian Scot is kind of a throw in since the Leafs have Woll in the pipeline and Rinne is getting a bit up there in age, but that extra piece is really just a shot in the dark. Subban is under contract for another few years, so this isn't a rental or anything like that. The only thing that worries me is age, which makes me think maybe the target should be someone like a Jared Spurgeon, but Subban wa sthe first available, Right Shot, Elite D that can to mind.
This team rolls basically the same top 2 lines as they did this year. The third line adds Bracco and Ennis (who resigns because he loves Toronto's medical staff) to move the puck up and down the ice. Not an idea line, but solid. The fourth line is kind of cobbled together, maybe the Leafs sign a few projects or depth veterans to fill these roles.
Ahhhhhh this defense is LEGIT. This top 4 is really, really good. Rielly, Subban, Muzzin Dermott. Tough, skilled, puck movers. Not soft, but the new NHL. Rosen and Hainsey make up the bottom pair, and I think they would actually do great together.
Just a note, the higher the bar is (in blue) the better. The lower the bar is (in red), the worse. As long as you are blue in that category, you are contributing, if you are red, you are a net negative in that category.
OFF_GF is offensive goals for (Think results/how many goals you contributed to that went in). If there is a large difference between this number, and the other OFF numbers, the player is overperforming their play/getting lucky (if OFF_GF is larger), or underperforming if the OFF_GF is lower than the other two OFF.
As an example, Marner is dramatically overperforming his play, while Willy dramatically underperformed his play this year.
OFF_xG is Offensive expected goals. This is how many goals you are expected to score.
OFF_CF is offensive corsi for. This is how strong you are in terms of possession (corsi). Its how much you have the puck, and get it into the other teams end.
Def_xG is how many goals you were expected to have caused the other team to score (the Def scales are reversed, so higher up the chart is still better).
Def_CF is how often you allowed the other team to control possession, (or more simply stated as) how often you allowed the other team to take the puck and make a play in your end (the Def scales are reversed, so higher up the chart is still better).
Or he'd pull Nylander and wait until the offer gets better.
Or ... Leafs give Marner a firm contract offer that is their absolute max offer (it won't be the $11M Dreger reports that Marner's side wants). For example, Leafs tell Marner that 6 years at $10M AAV is their highest offer they'll go. Give Marner until the draft to decide if he'll take it or wants more money. If he signs, great. Welcome back Mitch. If he rejects and wants more money, tell him if there is no answer by the draft then he'll be on the trade market. Then either trade him for substantial impact players/picks at the draft, or let him sit there with no contract. Then come July 1, give a big free agent an offer (Panarin, Hayes, Duchene, Karlsson, etc.) for no more than $10M.. let Marner sign the offer sheet at whatever amount he wants. If the $10M original offer from Toronto wasn't enough, he'll get more somewhere else and the compensation for it is 4 1st round picks. Toronto doesn't match the offer. But whatever team signs him, won't be a top contender because all the top teams in the league are having their own cap problems (Tampa, Vegas, Winnipeg, Boston - doubt he'd sign there anyways, etc.). So they team that signs him is either gonna be a middle of the pact team, or a bottom dweller. Marner might not be enough to put the team over the top to make playoffs and if his new team doesn't make playoffs those 1st round picks just became lottery picks with the potential of being 1st overall. Plus the Leafs have their big free agent and 4 additional 1st round picks because Marner got too greedy.
It's a hypothetical situation, but one that would be considered. The only way the Leafs get multiple 1st overall picks for Marner is through the compensation picks because the team signing him won't be a legit contender right away,
Or ... Leafs give Marner a firm contract offer that is their absolute max offer (it won't be the $11M Dreger reports that Marner's side wants). For example, Leafs tell Marner that 6 years at $10M AAV is their highest offer they'll go. Give Marner until the draft to decide if he'll take it or wants more money. If he signs, great. Welcome back Mitch. If he rejects and wants more money, tell him if there is no answer by the draft then he'll be on the trade market. Then either trade him for substantial impact players/picks at the draft, or let him sit there with no contract. Then come July 1, give a big free agent an offer (Panarin, Hayes, Duchene, Karlsson, etc.) for no more than $10M.. let Marner sign the offer sheet at whatever amount he wants. If the $10M original offer from Toronto wasn't enough, he'll get more somewhere else and the compensation for it is 4 1st round picks. Toronto doesn't match the offer. But whatever team signs him, won't be a top contender because all the top teams in the league are having their own cap problems (Tampa, Vegas, Winnipeg, Boston - doubt he'd sign there anyways, etc.). So they team that signs him is either gonna be a middle of the pact team, or a bottom dweller. Marner might not be enough to put the team over the top to make playoffs and if his new team doesn't make playoffs those 1st round picks just became lottery picks with the potential of being 1st overall. Plus the Leafs have their big free agent and 4 additional 1st round picks because Marner got too greedy.
It's a hypothetical situation, but one that would be considered. The only way the Leafs get multiple 1st overall picks for Marner is through the compensation picks because the team signing him won't be a legit contender right away,
It depends on the team. But I find it unlikely that Marner would be offer sheeted because the cost is too high.
Instead I don't find it at all unlikely that either Kapanen or Johnsson gets an offer sheet, because as Marner becomes the main target to contract for TOR, one of those two might get expendable.
It depends on the team. But I find it unlikely that Marner would be offer sheeted because the cost is too high.
Instead I don't find it at all unlikely that either Kapanen or Johnsson gets an offer sheet, because as Marner becomes the main target to contract for TOR, one of those two might get expendable.
Exactly. & That's Toronto's leverage to get his AAV down whether he likes it or not. The ball is in Dubas' and Leafs management's court. Not Marner's. Marner's camp thought they were doing a good thin by wanting to be the last of the big 3 RFA's to negotiate a deal but it might hurt them more than anything.
Leafs would probably match any offer sheet to Kapanen or Johnsson unless a team severely overpays, in that case you let them walk because it gives you free picks and gives another team a bad contract to deal with.
Exactly. & That's Toronto's leverage to get his AAV down whether he likes it or not. The ball is in Dubas' and Leafs management's court. Not Marner's. Marner's camp thought they were doing a good thin by wanting to be the last of the big 3 RFA's to negotiate a deal but it might hurt them more than anything.
Leafs would probably match any offer sheet to Kapanen or Johnsson unless a team severely overpays, in that case you let them walk because it gives you free picks and gives another team a bad contract to deal with.
Just out of curiosity, what do you consider as a "severe overpayment" for Johnsson or Kapanen?
Just out of curiosity, what do you consider as a "severe overpayment" for Johnsson or Kapanen?
Kapanen is only worth $3M and Johnsson $4M at most.. I know it's only a 2nd round pick as compensation but anything over is just giving them a bad contract that they're not worth. For Toronto not to match on either of them a team would have to offer over $4,059,323M which then becomes a 1st and a 3rd round pick.. if a team wants to pay them that much and cough up a 1st and a 3rd, I think Toronto takes it. They both only have 1 year of NHL time so there's really no track record to suggest they're worth big money with big term
Kapanen is only worth $3M and Johnsson $4M at most.. I know it's only a 2nd round pick as compensation but anything over is just giving them a bad contract that they're not worth. For Toronto not to match on either of them a team would have to offer over $4,059,323M which then becomes a 1st and a 3rd round pick.. if a team wants to pay them that much and cough up a 1st and a 3rd, I think Toronto takes it. They both only have 1 year of NHL time so there's really no track record to suggest they're worth big money with big term
How about two teams offering that exact amount for both them? That $4,059,223. Would TOR match both or just one of them?
How about two teams offering that exact amount for both them? That $4,059,223. Would TOR match both or just one of them?
Probably match 1 and take the other. I don't see Kapanen being an issue though. He generally seems to be a team player and understands the situation they're in (small cap room and not much NHL experience for him). It's Johnsson that's the tricky one because he already took his 1 year "prove me" deal and it paid off for him so he'll want more term which means more money.
I see Kapanen taking a bridge deal, close to 2 years for $2.85M and not having to worry about an offer sheet. For Johnsson, if I'm Toronto then I tell him my max offer is 4 years at $3.25M and it's a take it or leave it deal. If he walks and signs an offer sheet over $4,059,323M then I think Toronto takes the picks and replaces him internally or with a cheap FA
@Jordan_bloom124 someone was listening to the Steve Dangle Podcast
Also, "Buffalo is the only team with a head coaching vacancy".. Ottawa, Edmonton, Buffalo, and Anaheim all need head coaches. Edmonton would be all over him if he was available
Alway Like when CJ is on, we get that insider information. lol
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
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