Modifié 5 avr. 2019 à 19 h 27
Edmonton likely doesn't qualify Rattie or Rieder, and Chiasson, Petrovich, Gravel, and Stolarz all have expiring contracts. Khaira and Puljujarvi have expiring contracts as well, but both will be qualified. That represents $8,461,250 in free cap space. If the cap does jump to $83,500,000, as you've predicted, the new GM will have $12,461,250 in cap space. The GM will also have at least six contracts to negotiate, the minimum need would probably be something like one veteran back-up goaltender, one top-4 right-handed defenseman, a top-six forward, the two expiring RFA's worth hanging onto, and a depth forward.
Khaira and Puljujarvi are the RFA's worth hanging onto. Khaira has arbitration rights, so his next contract is likely going to be heavily based on the numbers paid to similar players. I'm going to guess his new salary will be somewhere between $1,400,000 and $1,700,000. Puljujarvi can be qualified with a 5% increase over his current contract. His current base salary is $925,000 and he receives an annual signing bonus $92,500. If we combine the two and multiply by 1.05 we get $1,068,375, which is reasonable to expect given his performance to date. Chiasson is a guy the Oilers should try to bring back as the depth forward. If they do, I think they can expect to pay between $1,500,000 and $2,500,000. If we use the higher numbers, and round-up Puljujarvi's projected salary, the new GM is going to use $5,300,000 of his cap space on those three guys.
The GM now has $7,161,250 and still needs a goaltender and a top-4 defender, and a top six forward. The defender is going to cost at least $4,500,000, and goaltender will probably run him between $1,500,000 and $2,500,000. The GM may be right up against the cap and still not have the forward they need. The GM will also need to pay at least one rookie defenseman, and maybe even a rookie forward. That could cost $1,975,000. Some salary is going to have to be shed.
Lucic is not going anywhere, his contract is buyout-proof and no opposing GM is going to take it on in order to help the Oilers. Lucic will retire an Oiler and we all just have to accept that. The goaltending is looking shaky, but there is no point in trying to move Koskinen. His performance has been such that there is likely little interest in him anyway. So its the defense that probably provides the best opportunity to relieve salary pressure without doing serious harm to the organization's aspirations.
Moving Klefbom would require some kind of blockbuster deal, which is unlikely. Edmonton can't afford to trade Larsson, and there is a significant risk that they will lose on any deal involving Nurse. That leaves Benning and the two old guys. I'd be okay with shipping out Benning, but only if the GM was able to get something decent in return. That won't help the situation unless the GM is cagey enough to somehow convince another GM that Benning is worth a good top-six forward who is paid around $2,000,000. Not many players like that around, and GMs tend to hang onto them jealously.
I would not trade Sekera unless I could get something reasonable in return. Sekera's performance, despite his injuries, has trended as should have been expected. Klefbom and Nurse should surpass him as they develop and he ages. That is what has happened, and Sekera still continues to provide value. He is a smart veteran player who can make plays and get the puck to the forwards consistently and efficiently. He has also been reasonably effective in supporting younger players, and that should be a critical role for him next season. $5,500,000 is too much to pay a bottom pair defenseman, but that salary was set when the player was the best guy available to the team. Besides, Sekera still has the potential to play on the second pair.
In comparison, Kris Russell is often a disaster with the puck, he quite often winds up flattened by opposing forwards, and is very often caught out of position. His shot blocking acumen is a requirement because there is usually so much chaos when he is on the ice defending. Now all of this criticism is a bit unfair because Russell has been playing on the right side of the second pair, not his natural position, and against competition he can no longer keep up with. He would likely do quite fine on the bottom pair, but he will never be able to move the puck and make plays the way Sekera can. $4,000,000, while less than $5,500,000, is still too much to pay a bottom pair guy. Russell has been a great soldier, but in my mind he is the odd man out and the primary target for relieving salary pressure. As a depth defenseman, I think Edmonton will have to keep salary in order to move Russell. If Someone will agree to take him in exchange for a 3rd, or 4th round pick in either the 2020, or 2021 draft and with Edmonton retaining say $1,250,000, I say do it.
Now, with most of Russell's salary gone, and with the money left after signing the RFA's, Chiasson, a top-4 RHD, and a veteran back-up goaltender, the GM now has an opportunity to keep a rookie like Caleb Jones around, but he should not be expected to ride the pine. A guy like Benning either drops to the depth position, or becomes expendable in order to give the more talented rookie ice time. If the GM can move Benning for a good return, there is a possibility that a guy like Gravel gets another contract. The combined salaries of Jones and Benning's replacement are unlikely to exceed the $1,900,000 Edmonton is paying Benning. That's important, because the GM has to avoid having the rookie eat up the limited cap space. That limited cap space should now be close to $3,000,000, or perhaps even as much as $4,200,000 (if Khaira, Puljujarvi, and Chiasson give the team a discount). That amount is certainly enough to attract a player like Brandon Pirri, or maybe even Joonas Donskoi. Both would be big upgrades over the likes of Rieder, Rattie, Puljujarvi (to date), Caggiula, Chiasson, and Gagner. And if it’s $4,200,000, there is even enough room to keep Marody, Benson, Yamamoto, or another rookie as well.
Webbles a aimé ceci.
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